Iran’s Hardliner President Promises Moderation

The election of a prominent hardliner as Iran’s new President now complicates the situation — for American policymakers and, some analysts say, for Iran’s top religious leader as well.

At issue is the surprise election of Tehran’s appointed Mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the powerful Islamic Republic’s President. His election shocked most analysts, who now attribute it to his appeal to many of Iran’s poor in his campaign vowing to eliminate poverty — and to backlash over perceived corruption in the reformist camp.

And Ahmadinejad wasted little time after the election to make some points clear: he vowed not to allow Iran to drift into extremism, but also vowed that the country’s nuclear program will continue despite calls from the U.S. for it to be curtailed — and noted that Iran can do just fine without any help from the United States.

But he doesn’t just have the potential of putting noses out of joint in the corridors of the U.S. State Department (or the Pentagon) in Washington. The Christian Science Monitor notes that his election may also throw a monkey wrench into the way Iran is set up today:

No one predicted victory by the most hard-line candidate in the field, or the depth of economic discontent and class and social divisions that manifested themselves at the ballot box, in favor of the former Tehran mayor. Ahmadinejad was considered by many to be the last choice of (Iran’s supreme spiritual and state leader) Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, and has permitted a lengthy dialog with Europe over nuclear issues, and the sending of some positive signals to the US.

The president-elect met Ayatollah Khamenei yesterday to hear “guidelines,” but Ahmadinejad’s statements so far take a much tougher line.

“It’s a mini-coup d’etat,” says a veteran Iranian political analyst. “Something bigger has happened … it’s a movement, not to say antiregime, but it’s antiestablishment. Ahmadinejad happened to offer a window of opportunity for all the poor, and people who feel deprived.”

“The supreme leader must cope with it, too,” says the analyst, who asked not to be named. “For two or three years, there have been orchestrated closer ties to Europe, and signals to the US, which must have had the leader’s blessing. And then someone is elected who is against all that.”

The New York Times notes that in his first press conference Ahmadinejad was politically nimble:”His pattern through much of the chaotic hourlong session, held in the city council chambers at Tehran’s municipal building, was to first take a tough line, then quickly follow up with a modest offer of compromise.”

One good sign pointed out by the Times: he says he is considering inviting members of the politically steam-rollered reformist movement into his government.

What could the election mean? Many things, including:

• There were allegations before the election that the poll was rigged due to some 1,000 candidates being weeded out. Most of those nixed candidates are said to be reformers.
• Before this elections tensions between Iran and the United States were growing. There has also been speculation (which at this point is nothing more than exactly that) centered on the possible future role of Israel in taking some kind of future military action if it feels the Iranian nuclear threat is big enough. Ahmadinejad’s election is unlikely to decrease either of these tensions.
• Could Ahmadinejad be to Iran what Richard Nixon was to the United States on the China issue? Some have floated the (also pure speculation at this point) theory that just as it took an American official on the right to foster and American “opening” with China, it may take an Iranian on the right to foster an “opening” with the United States.
• Any contingency plans the Pentagon has about possible military action with Iran will probably be updated with this election.
• There were fears before this election that Iran was a safe haven for terrorists fleeing U.S. forces. Those fears won’t decrease with the election.
• In the immediate aftermath of 911, various books dealing with intelligence operations pre-dating 911 suggested that Iran was a kind of shadowy hand behind international terrorism: the very least, an enabler; at the worst, one of the directors. Those fears are unlikely to decrease due to this election.
• Iran could well be headed for a period of internal turmoil. The reason: student demonstrators. Will they clash with the new hard-line government — particularly those students who are a bit more oriented towards the west and western values?

The Guardian writes, in part:

Conservatives and moderates in the Iranian political system, the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, has said, are like the wings of a bird. Both must beat if the bird is to stay aloft. It is an image with which many outside observers of Iranian politics, who have for years seen the two tendencies as cooperating and sometimes colluding with one another, would concur. But it does not hold at all today, after the victory in the presidential elections of, a victory which means that the hardliners now have power in every branch of Iran’s government….

A state based on the security institutions of the revolutionary guard, the militia, the police, the intelligence services and the regular amed forces will have the allegiance of those in such bodies and of other beneficiaries in the civil service and the judiciary, and the means to suppress the opposition of others.

But it could lose even the acquiescence of the rest of the population and particularly of the educated and skilled classes. It is all very well to speak, as some Iranians do, of a Chinese model in which economic and social freedoms are combined with an authoritarian politics. It is far from clear whether the hardliners in Iran have the capacity to maintain even that tawdry balance.

According to the Guardian, a BIG SIGN of whether things have changed will come when talks resume on Iran’s nuclear program since Iran’s negotiators have so far been liberals:”If they are replaced or have clearly been rebriefed that would be a clear signal. They may not be for the Iranian system still has some suppleness and sense, but the chances of an ultimate collision with the United States must have increased with the vote this weekend.”

ADDITIONAL READING:
–Digital Dissent’s Justin Delabar (a co-blogger on this site) has THIS TAKE on the new Iranian President and the nuclear issue. A MUST READ.
–The newspaper Asahi in an editorial says the new President’s task must be to redistribute Iran’s oil wealth.
–Arthur Chrenkoff sees unhappy days ahead for Iran.
–Pejman Yousefzadeh makes the case for demonstrations.