When in power, the Democrats eventually “overreach”. Same thing happens when the Republicans are in power. I see politics in America somewhat like a giant pendulum – once the political winds sway too far to the left or the right, they inevitably will swing back. And the farther it swings in one direction, the hard and faster the reciprocal swing.

It's not a matter of whether or not the Democrats will get full of themselves – it's just a matter of how much, and how fast. The neocons did their best to push that pendulum as far to the right as possible and keep it there — well, we saw how well that worked for them. One could argue exactly when the pendulum reached its farthest right point – I think the breaking point was in the fall of 2005, on the day the levees broke in New Orleans. Since that point the pendulum has been swinging farther and farther left, and from all polls and indications it appears to *still* be edging left even today. How far will it go? When will it stop? We won't really know until after the fact – but I am convinced that it eventually will swing back to the right. Two years, four years, six years from now we may have switched from a center-left nation back to a center-right nation once again – and the cycle starts all over again.

But most of the blue/Democratic states I mentioned are pretty close to solid for Dems even without swing voters.

So while certainly the Democrats will overreach and give the GOP openings, even a 2-1 GOP split in the tossup states would still mean a more or less 50/50 Senate.

If you look at the pattern of the 20th century (say 1932-2000) you had a period of about 50 years or so where the Democrats tended to be in the majority but the GOP sometimes took control. Then you had the period of back and forth control. My analysis merely is saying that the future is likely to resemble that 1932-1980 period.

Individuals may be hardline, but given time, groups of people can change their opinions.

All the math you need to know was laid out in 1994, when the GOP took both houses, numerous governorships, state houses etc.

Four years ago even the NY Times was writing about a “permanent Republican majority”, and now we have people calculating with geometric precision how the Democrats are securely in power for the next 100 years.

Right. Good luck with that.