Some Compelling Math For Republicans

A few days ago I posted about the demise of the moderate wing of the Republican party. To expand on that I decided to run some statistics on the relative Republican and Democratic positions in 1980 versus today, as well as give a bit of a look at the future math. To say the least the figures are not encouraging for the Republicans though we all know that numbers do not always play out as expected.

For purposes of my analysis I looked at two regions of the country, one generally seen as Democratic and one generally seen as Republican. The Democratic region consists of the Northeast (New England, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia and Delaware) plus the three Pacific coast states of California, Oregon and Washington. The Republican region is made up of the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

In 1980 the Democrats controlled majorities in both regions but the numbers were reasonably balanced. In  the Northeast/Pacific region the 30 Senate seats were split 15-15 while on the House side out of 167 seats the Democrats had an edge of 99-68. This meant they had about 58% of the overall seats. A majority but with a strong GOP presence. Today that has shifted to where the Democrats control 27 out of 30 Senate seats and 121 out of 162 House seats which gives them 75% of the seats.

So in the Northeast the GOP  has gone from a strong minority to a near wipeout.

Looking to the Southern region, in 1980 the Democrats also had an edge (largely due to conservative Democrats who generally voted Republican on issues). In the Senate out of 24 Senate Seats it was a 16-12 Democrat edge while out of 130 House seats they had an 80-50 edge. This gave them about 60% of the overall seats. Today the GOP has gained, holding a 18-10 edge in Senate seats and 55-50 advantage in the House. This gives the GOP about 55% of the total seats.

So in the South the GOP has certainly taken control but the Democrats remain a very strong minority and could make further gains in the next election. In 1980 both parties were strong in both regions, even if the Democrats tended to control the Northeast and the GOP/Conservative Dems tended to control the South. Today the Dems remain a factor in the South while the GOP is wiped out in the Northeast.

Looking in how this might impact the future, the math is an uphill battle for Republican gains. For purposes of this analysis I divided states into 3 categories. Category 1 are states where, barring some unusual development, the voters will tend to elect 2 Democratic senators, Category 2 are states where they would do the same for Republicans and Category 3 are are states where either side could win.

In the Democratic camp I find at least 20 states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.

In the Republican Camp I found 12 states: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho,Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

So that leaves 18 states in play.

It means that generally speaking the Democrats would start with 40 seats to 24 for the GOP. If they split the remaining 36 seats 50/50 you get a 58-42 Democratic Senate (not far off what we currently have). For the GOP to take control they’d need to win 26 out of 36 seats or over 70% of them.

Of course there will be times where factors play into the GOP hands to help get past this math but the fact is that the figures are not on the side of the GOP when it comes to Senate control.

The same issue plays into the Electoral College where the Democrats can pretty much count on about 225-250 Electoral Votes in almost any election while the GOP base is closer to 150-175. Again, the GOP can win things by taking most of the tossup states and in good years some of the Democratic base. But right off the bat the Democrats only need to win about 35% of the tossup states to have a majority.

I have not done a detailed analysis on the House yet but suspect the figures would be similar.

People have talked about whether President Obama is the new FDR. I can’t say for sure whether he will have that kind of an impact or if he will win the large victories FDR did. But I do think we are probably in a new 1932 in an electoral sense.

After 1932 the Republicans did not take control of the Congress until 1946, then only held it for 2 years. They took it again in the 50’s and not again until the 80’s and 90s’. On the Presidential level it took 20 years for the GOP to make a comeback and then things tended to go back and forth.

So I don’t think that we are in for a one party state. I don’t think the GOP will be totally out of power for decades to come but I do think that generally speaking the Republicans will find majority control periods to be far less common than they have been over the last 10-15 years.