Sabato’s Crystal Ball: CALIFORNIA – The Key to the Electoral Lock

California may be the Golden State, but it has been a while since people have called it that without a trace of sarcasm. With its double digit unemployment rate, difficult to balance budget, and crumbling infrastructure, California these days is anything but golden.

That is, with the exception of its mother lode of electoral votes. Since 1972, California has possessed more than any other state, and is certain to maintain the number one spot throughout the next decade.

Yet candidates of late have battled more fiercely for the electoral votes of much smaller states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico. From 1968 through 1988, California was reliably found in the Republican column in every presidential contest. Since then, the state’s huge bloc of electoral votes (55 in 2008) has gone virtually by default to the Democrats.

For Republicans to have any real hope of a comeback in the next presidential election, that will have to change.

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