Market Recovering. Economy Not. A Problem?.

The stock market is on a tear. It has had one of the biggest four-week advances ever. Like episodes of Seinfeld, however, this surge is pretty much about nothing.

Street watchers, of course, are obliged to assign a reason for the inherently silly or foolish gyrations that often seize hold of the professional traders who handle so much of other people’s money. And they have thus given a number of reasons for the present spasm: These include the view that the deep recession may have bottomed. A slew of happy talk from analysts whose record for bad calls in the past is legendary. A few very modest upticks in home sales and factory orders in these still horrendously depressed sectors. What may or may not be actionable promises by G-20 attendees. And on days when there was no hook whatever to justify another spike, the explanation for such a spike usually came down to something like “the bulls were on a rampage today”—a colorful anthropomorphic description that never fails to evoke an image of maddened bovine males goring the gizzards out of hapless declawed bears.

In ordinary times, whatever explanations were used to justify market bull runs, the upticks themselves would be a good thing. They enhance stock investor’s worth, so badly hurt in recent months previous market plunge. These upswings also tend to boost consumer confidence generally, certainly a good thing in any ordinary recessionary time.

Except, today is not an ordinary recessionary time.

There hasn’t been so much animosity in this country (and indeed around the world) between Main Street and Wall Street since the great depression. The extraordinary public outcries against AIG and other financial institutions’ bonuses was a clear demonstration of that fact. And here we are today with unemployment still rising, foreclosures still soaring, modern-day Hoovervilles appearing around the country, the number of food stamp recipients proliferating, and all manner of other signs that things are not simply very, very bad for so many people, but getting worse for a great many.

That’s where we are. And the beasts of the bourse, as they used to be called, appear to be making out like bandits again.

Long time market watchers will tell you that stock markets generally start going up about six months before overall economic improvement becomes apparent. Is that what’s happening now? Gee, I hope so. I really do, because like so many of my fellow Americans I’m hurting financially these days.

But if that doesn’t happen, and if the Obama stimulus package that is just now coming on line doesn’t materially better an awful lot of lives very quickly, watch out. Today’s bull market will not be seen as a cause for celebration, but another finger in the eye of a gullible public.