Blair Is Projected Winner But Could Be Dumped

Projections give Great Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair his third majority — but some are already predicting he’ll eventually be dumped by his party.

The reason: even with what the BBC says is a “historic third term for Labour” the numbers otherwise show significant erosion: labor will have 66 seats — and in 2001 they won 167. Thus ends an election in which:

• Voters did not seem smitten with Labour but were less impressed with the Conservatives. Some analysts speculated that if Blair had faced a tougher opposition he would have lost or won by even less. (But others note that the economy was strong enough to weather the storm).
• The Conservatives support the war in Iraq but kept hammering at the issue of Iraq — an increasingly unpopular war in England — to use against Blair. The revelation late in the campaign that the government was looking for a legal justification for the war before it was declared and that one official even considered it an illegal war caused a huge last-minute stir.
• There was a heavy contingent of American politicos involved in advising Blair’s election campaign in England in varying degrees, including John Kerry’s former campaign manager Bob Shrum — a consultant who has a hideous record when it comes to winning national elections in the United States.

Meanwhile, the political political erosion suffered by Labour in this election has caused some analysts to predict that Blair could be forced out a bit further down the road. For instance, the AP says this:

Deprived of a comfortable parliament majority such as his current 161-seat margin and facing a faction in his party willing to vote against him on key issues like keeping troops in Iraq Blair is likely to come under strong pressure in the middle of his four-year term to give way to his more popular Treasury chief, Gordon Brown.

Brown is widely considered the architect of Britain’s current economic boom the longest period of expansion in the nation’s postwar history.

He is reported to covet the prime minister’s post and would be the heir apparent because the main factor in Labour’s victory is probably its record on increasing prosperity, creating business opportunities and keeping workers in their jobs.

Blair may now be seen as damaged goods for Labour possibly prompting it to bring in Brown sooner rather than later to allow him time to shore up his leadership looking toward the next election.

Indeed, the projections were barely out when some pointed the finger at Blair and essentially said: “You’ve been demoted”:

• “What we are now seeing is the slow, sad, political extinction of Tony Blair.” – Conservative candidate Boris Johnson.
• “It would be possible, I think, to portray this result as disappointing and that the key factor in the campaign was that this time Tony Blair was not an electoral asset. He was becoming a liability” – Former Tory cabinet minister Michael Portillo.
• “It is clear the public want to cut Tony Blair down to size and make him more accountable.” – Liam Fox, Conservative Party co-chairman.
  

THE BOTTOM LINE: Blair is projected as having won but it looks like voters “punished” him for the government’s role in the Iraq war and influx of 1 million non-British immigrants in 8 years. As the Australian newspaper The Age noted:”Election 2005 has been dubbed “operation nose peg”: an electorate sniffy about rewarding Prime Minister Tony Blair’s support for the Iraq War, but not all that impressed with the alternative. Journalist Polly Toynbee coined the phrase, and it has spread like wildfire through the blogosphere.”

And it’s likely to be the theme in press reports later today and tomorrow as well.