Hillary Clinton Versus John Kerry In The Democratic Sweepstakes

In case you thought various press reports in recent weeks mentioning competitive tensions between Senator John Kerry and Senator Hillary Clinton over the 2008 Democratic nomination were just a bunch of speculative horse-race handicapping, think again.

The bottom line is that too many of these little factoids have been emerging — including this one reporting how Kerry was irked when someone expressed their preference for Mrs. Clinton — to be journalistic tale-weaving. There is a pattern. And now we have this from U.S. News and World Report’s always delicious Washington Whispers column:

Whispers learns that Kerry is not just testing the waters: He’s running . “His family wants him to run again,” says one pal. Proof he’s in: Kerry has added names to his E-mail list of 3 million, kept johnkerry.com alive and kicking, raised boatloads of cash for friendly Democrats, and moved to seize control of hot-button issues like kids’ healthcare, the environment, and support for military families. The Kerry clan is also pushing the Clinton electability issue. “Donors and organized labor love Bill Clinton, ” says one Kerry friend. “But they’re telling everyone they’re terrified that she’d get stomped.”

Friends of Hillary, meanwhile, are touting her front-runner status and joining in the chorus of Democrats who think Kerry should crawl under a rock and go away. “He had his chance,” mutters a Clinton ally. “It’s over.”

The bottom line: Pollster John Zogby says Clinton’s out front in part because of her recent shift to the middle on partisan issues. That has prompted some haters to take a second look. “She can take the ’somewhat unfavorables,’” Zogby says, “and turn them into ’somewhat favorables.’”

Indeed, here is our take on it:

• Hillary Clinton has indeed moved to the center on many issues. She has been doing it systematically, steadily and, it would appear, quite effectively. And most news reports indicate she has kept her fences well-enough mended at home so you probably won’t see a slew of stories when she’s up for re-election about how New Yorkers feel she has ignored them. A big GOP name could still come in and give her a real contest — but she seems to have done her homework locally and nationally.
• John Kerry is trying to do what no one in recent times except Richard Nixon and Adlai Stevenson have done: get the nomination again. There is indeed a lot of sentiment on the Democratic left that the party can do better than Kerry. His problem is that this sentiment also exists in the party’s center. When people think about his campaign it just won’t be about things that hurt him from the GOP such as Swift Boats. It’s a name: Bob Shrum. It was not quite a dreadful campaign (Michael Dukakis and Bob Dole ran those). But Democrats will (rightly) ask: why SHOULD he have another chance? There are others. Kerry is like the New Coke; the product didn’t work.
• Kerry and Mrs. Clinton in the future will also be defined by what happens with and within the GOP. Was George Bush’s press conference the first step in the Prez politely grabbing the GOP’s steering wheel away from the social conservatives (while still following many of their directions)? If so, how will that place Kerry and HC in the national context? And if the GOP goes for what Republicans originally called the “nuclear option” and takes other stands unpopular with most Americans in polls, who will be more articulate — and get the most press attention — on that?

But, clearly, the two biggest factors are going to be Mrs. Clinton’s move to the center and Kerry’s trying to convince Democrats that they need to put their time, effort and money into him running again because he deserves another shot. And John Kerry may find it difficult, no matter how he positions himself or what he doesn’t do or does.

Remember Al Gore?