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Deptartment of Obvious Predictions

2318074918_4114678eec_m.jpgNostradamus, James Carville is not,

2009 will be a year in which the Republican Party will be confronted with a near catastrophic ideological rift. There is no obvious Republican leader on the horizon, and the party is caught between its Southern/talk-radio base and the rest of the country on whether they should oppose or cooperate with Obama’s administration.

The combination of the lack of an obvious leader and the general political combustibility of the Republican Party will lead to a dangerous fissure that will plague it until the 2012 election cycle.

While the general sentiment seems obviously true, let me suggest a more controversial addendum to Carville’s offering: with no direction coming from the top down, the Republican Party may have to turn to a burgeoning class of “grassroots” conservative thinkers who are already toiling away at the wrong turns of the party what a properly constituted national conservative entity needs to look and act like in an America of the twenty-first century. If these thinkers have their way, the reconstituted Party could be a more deadly political foe to Democrats than it was circa Reagan.

Stay tuned!

  • superdestroyer
    It does not matter what the grassroots conservatives do. They cannot make up for the demographic challenges facing the Repulbican Party. they cannot make up for the massive lack of fund raising. There is no amount of organizing and work that is going to make up for eight years of incompetence, stupidity, and hubris.

    What the Republican organizers need to realize is that they had their chance and they blew it. Now they need to figure out how to promote conservative ideas when every demographic trend is against them.
  • "There is no amount of organizing and work that is going to make up for eight years of incompetence, stupidity, and hubris.

    What the Republican organizers need to realize is that they had their chance and they blew it."

    Exactly right and I couldn't have said it better.
  • superdestroyer
    greendreams,

    So, the next logical question is how will the U.S. function as a de facto one party state?
  • Better, I hope, than it did as a GOP one-party state. In any case, now that we've seen what Republicans in total control can do with a surplus, we get to see how the Dems perform in a time of intense domestic and international disarray. Not really fair, but we play the hand we're dealt. Bushco started on third base and stole defeat.
  • scotthpayne
    superdestroyer, surely you're not suggesting that the Republican Party is banned to the wilderness ad infinitum. A lot can happen in eight years, though certainly there would be a lot of ground to cover if one suggests a four year comeback.

    Now, I agree that demographically there is a fair amount going against Republicans, but it is, perhaps, just this kind of trip to the wilderness that realigns perspectives in ways that are necessary to maximally effect policy appropriately.

    But it seems equally fair to point out that the kind of change we're talking about is going to run into not insubstantial systemic resistance, so there are no sure bets in this race.
  • superdestroyer
    Greendreams,

    The Republicans never had 60 seats in the Senate. By 2012, the Democrats will have more of a lock than the Republicans ever had.
  • true enough sd, but the Dems were quite accomodating, cowardly even, in the face of the prevailing patriotic post 9/11 fervor. By comparison, the GOP has set a new historical record for filibusters in the last 2 years, a harbinger of the obstruction that is to come.

    I fully agree with you that absent a serious realignment of its platform, the GOP is in deep trouble, as they have failed since 2000 to win any large city, a majority of even small cities, they lose big among blacks, Hispanics, women and the young. It's a pretty grim picture. Pious bigotry and pandering to the rich, even with a frosting of superpatriotism just isn't gonna cut it any more.
  • superdestroyer
    Greendreams,

    The next question is "Can the more conservative aprty ever appeal to non-middle class whites?" I believe the answer is no.
  • cheer up, sd, you've still got the rich white man vote. The GOP still thinks they, the racists and the christian right will sustain it.
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