Sabato’s Crystal Ball: In The Red Corner…

Cordel Faulk – IN THE RED CORNER…

Here’s the worst kept secret in politics: Presidential campaigning never ends. For periods of time it becomes quieter–a little subtler–but it never stops. Every morning 100 senators, 50 governors, quite a few grandees in the House of Representatives, and an assortment of corporate titans all hear their Rice Krispies shouting “2012!” “FORM A PRESIDENTIAL EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE!” and “RUN … YOU’RE THE ONE!”

Democrats will shush Snap, Crackle, and Pop, pleading with them to instead say, “2016!” Republicans on the other hand, will pour another bowl, and ask the three sirens of Battle Creek, Michigan, to repeat what they just said.

Need proof of the 2012 jockeying taking place behind the scenes? Since November 4, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has chatted up any person with professional-grade video equipment (it’s called image reform, folks). Louisiana’s Republican governor, Bobby Jindal, has already booked a flight to Iowa (he will appear before the Iowa Family Policy Center’s “Celebrating the Family” banquet this Saturday). And Barack Obama placed Hillary Clinton at the top of his list for the job of secretary of state (Obama knows sitting presidents who face significant nomination challenges for re-election don’t fare well–I’m looking at you Presidents Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush. Obama wants to keep Ms. Clinton otherwise occupied).

Since no sitting president who decided to stay in the battle has lost a nomination fight since the 19th century, it is probably safe to assume that even with a contested nomination, Democrats will stick with Obama in 2012. But to whom might the GOP look for leadership during their wilderness year?

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