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Gates and Change: Will Obama Keep the Current SecDef?

Posted by MICHAEL STICKINGS, Assistant Editor in Politics.
Nov 12th, 2008 | View Comments

The WSJ is reporting that “Obama is leaning toward asking Defense Secretary Robert Gates to remain in his position for at least a year, according to two Obama advisers. A senior Pentagon official said Mr. Gates would likely accept the offer if it is made.”

I’m sorry, but that’s not change I can believe in.

(To those of you who think I’m now turning on Obama because he’s not progressive enough, I’m not. It’s just that I’m not so rigidly ideological that I can’t accept moderation and compromise. I also don’t intend to sit through Obama’s presidency cheerleading his, or the Democrats’, every move.)

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Actually, I don’t feel too strongly about this one way or the other. I would certainly like to see Obama start over at the Pentagon, not more of the same, but Gates has done pretty well — well in absolute terms, but even better relative to Rumsfeld. And I suppose there is a case to be made for continuity.

The problem is, Gates supports an escalation of the war in Afghanistan (more troops) and the continuation of the war in and occupation of Iraq (no timetable for withdrawal). I am much more sympathetic to the former position than to the latter, but what is needed now is fresh thinking. As the WaPo reported yesterday, Obama plans “to explore a more regional strategy to the war in Afghanistan,” which is promising, but keeping Gates would be a clear sign that the old ways, the failed ways, are still in play.

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Dave_Schuler

I like Gates and hope he does stay on but I think that Obama would be most imprudent if he kept him.

He needs to put a Democrat in the job. Otherwise he feeds the idea that Democrats are soft on defense.

EEllis

The funny thing is that the US position in Iraq is becoming more and more like what Obama said he was for. Less direct involvment and more "back up" to Iraq forces. This of course being possible because of policies he opposed but still, it's getting him where he wanted to be. Why change when it's working and well.

Marlowecan

While I was speaking purely politically above . . . Holly is right, I believe, in terms of America's interests.

(1) Obama wants a rapid withdrawal from Iraq. Can an inexperienced team of Obama appointees draft and implement a complex withdrawal plan, involving tens of thousands of troops and their kit, in short order?

(2) Obama's team has declared the economy will be his prime initial focus. So why devote time/energy to the complexity of changing over a Defense Dept that most everyone agrees is well-run?

(3) Does he need the distraction of an immediate clean sweep of Defense - with all of the potential minefields new and insecure appointees open for his Administration? (I am sure Obama recalls the early Clinton stumble over gays and the military. . . to say nothing of Somalia and the "Black Hawk Down" fiasco ).

If President Obama replaces Gates in six months to a year, he will have secured continuity. . .the best possible Iraq withdrawal plan, and minimized potential new team stumbles . . . and given himself time to focus on the economy.

It will be interesting to see if President Obama regards placating progressive angst important enough to override the above reasons, and fire Gates. Either way . . . it will likely be a defining choice for his Presidency.

Holly_in_Cincinnati

It would be foolish and dangerous NOT to keep Gates and the current top intelligence officials for at least the first few months of the Obama administration.

Silhouette

Colin Powell comes to mind...

Maybe Gates can be a consultant to Powell.

Marlowecan

I imagine President-elect Obama is weighing the question of keeping Gates in terms of his own authority as well.

Reports say he has already agreed to Congressional demands for the sacking of two professional-grade (as opposed to political-grade) intelligence officials.
Bush kept Tenet on at CIA because he thought continuity was important.
That will not occur with Obama. Fair enough. They serve at the pleasure of the President.

But if he sacks Gates . . . who has earned generally good marks from all sides . . . at the demand of progressives, where does Obama draw the line?

If progressives get Gates' head, the next obvious head to roll will be Petraeus . . . "General Betray-US" has never been forgiven by the MoveOn cadres for pulling the US out of a near-defeat in Iraq.

But if all of these heads roll . . . it will be obvious that it is President-elect Obama who is being rolled.
If Obama caves across the board to the demands of the progressives . . . rather than just tossing them a head or two here and there . . . it will define his presidency from the outset.

It will be interesting to see if Rahm Emanuel -- a hard-core political operator -- permits this to happen.

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