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What Happens If Obama Does Not Win?

Posted by TONY CAMPBELL, Columnist in At TMV, Politics.
Nov 3rd, 2008 | Comments

I woke up this morning to read the Gallup poll numbers that show an 11 point lead for Barack Obama. The amazing thing is the fact that so many people seem to be surprised by the double digit lead. In a post, two weeks ago, I predicted a win of 14 points. The surprising part of these poll numbers is that we have not seen the effect of Vice President Dick Cheney’s endorsement for John McCain.

My lead question is “what happens if Obama does not win?” While I do not see this a likely outcome for tomorrow night, I believe it is worth taking a look at possible consequences of a McCain win.

1) The legitimacy of this election will be called into question. We have already had stories about voter fraud, the throwing out of ballots, and possible problems with both hand ballots and computer based voting systems. If you thought Bush v. Gore took a long time, McCain v. Obama may also wind up in the Supreme Court. By the way, the Republicans have a 5 – 4 margin on the bench – sound familiar…

2) For black folks, it will be about Race. I know that it is not PC to write this but being PC has never been one of my badges of honor. African-American turnout will surpass all benchmarks in the South and in urban areas. These voters will feel cheated and feel that our political system is designed to keep one of their own out of power. I even read that some local jurisdictions are going to have extra police on duty – in case there is a large protest or other kind of public disturbance.

3) The millions of young people who have been energized to get involved in politics will feel betrayed as well. On both sides of the aisle, my students are more energized about this election than any I have witnessed since 1992. We will lose a generation of voters because they will not trust their government any longer.

If Obama wins, Republicans will have to retool to find their message for 2012. This means they either have to jettison Sarah Palin or the moderates of their party.

If Obama loses, Democrats are going to recount, go to the Supreme Court, and once again, lose the Presidency on a technicality…either way tomorrow should be a day for the history books and I have got my Tums by the TV.

  • elrod
    ALL of the polls would need to be wrong. The late movement in all the polls - toward Obama - would have to be wrong too.

    I would question a lot of things if McCain won.
  • Rudi
    If McCain wins, the Republicans must have channeled the ghost of Bill Daley. I doubt that this is going to happen.

    But what happens WHEN Obamama wins, do you think the Republican machine will accept the outcome. Of course Limpbaugh, the DutchLad and Billy Kristol will welcome POTUS Obama with open arms. The ClintonDeraingementSyndrome won't repeat from the 1990's.
  • AustinRoth
    Well, I will bet you if Obama wins as expected, we won't hear Republican cries of 'he's not my President', and threats to leave the country.
  • bootlegger
  • The google is a beautiful thing ;-)
  • Ike_Skelton
    I would think that any effect of Dick Cheney's endorsement of McCain would be positive for Obama, if anything at all. Anyone who would vote for McCain based on Dick Cheney's suggestion would already be voting for McCain.

    I was one of the youths who's energy was drained after Bush won his second term. I couldn't conceive the fact that people still trusted or liked Bush leading up to that election, after all he had put us through. Because of that, this entire election cycle I have been very skeptical that Obama could win; the American people's stupidity (those who elected Bush a second time) wasn't going to amaze me again. It was about the time McCain chose Palin that I finally was able to believe that Obama could win. Now, a day before the election, I don't see how Obama could lose, unless there is some sort of fraud, or the polls are extremely wrong. If Obama manages to lose the election at this point somehow, I will most definitely once again be surprised, disappointed, and angry.
  • AustinRoth
    Oooh - good cites. On is from an obvious moron (see the 'he is Muslim, etc.) back in January, the other was obviously tongue-in-cheek.
  • StockBoySF
    Re: the Republicans whining about an Obama win and threatening to leave the US. Well, I guess that's another reason to vote for Obama! :)

    In all seriousness: anyone who wants to leave (Dem or GOP) is free to do so, but I do think they are whiners.... I for one may think McCain would be a disaster for this country but I have no intention of letting some small-minded idiot who divides America into patriots and non-patriots in order to win the election drive me from my home and country.

    What's great about America is that we may not like our leaders and we have a chance to vote to get them out of office (or keep them from taking office). Voting is just one way of protesting. There are other ways of protesting the US's policies which our country allows. If anyone wants to leave, they are more than welcome too. But my family has been in the US for too long to give up on her just because of a period of darkness. I'm here to stay, through good times and bad.

    Go Obama!
  • StockBoySF
    Ike,

    Thanks for your story. I have often wondered about people whose energy was sapped by the 2004 Bush win. It's important that people not be discouraged and vote. Being discouraged on the outcome of an election and not voting again is exactly what the other side wants. If you don't vote then the other side wins. No one can win every election but the key is to try and try again.

    I've said in the past that one of McCain's tactics is to discourage people from voting for Obama. After all if McCain can keep one person from voting for Obama and just stay home, then that's one less voter McCain needs to convince to vote for him (McCain). SInce McCain can't win on his ideas (unless you want a repeat of Bush, more or less- McCain will do things differently, but the underlying GOP philosophy is still there) then McCain can only hope people stay hoem and don't vote for Obama. That's why we're seeing the Rev. Wright ads... McCain isn't trying to win over anyone to his side. McCain is trying to qwell enthusiasm among Obama's supporters.

    So don't let the other side win by discouraging you to stay home and not voting. Get out and vote! (And keep your fingers crossed that everyone else does too.)
  • inthedesert
    If McCain wins, the for sale sign goes up on Dec.15th. My husband is a Canadian. Vancouver here we come.
  • bootlegger
    And the t-shirts? And it took me all of 3 minutes to find and paste these.
    Anecdotally, some of my relatives have made statements like this.
    But you should really stay in denial for a little while before you start working through that profound sense of loss you're experiencing.
  • bootlegger
    I've posted in other places how I felt after the '00 and '04 elections. That my/our warnings about electing Joe Sixpack went unheeded and how we would all pay the price said as much about my fellow countrymen as about the future of the nation. But each time I knew that I/we would get another shot in 4 years, and you are correct SBSF, that is the beauty of democracy.
  • Rudi
    AR says:Well, I will bet you if Obama wins as expected, we won't hear Republican cries of 'he's not my President', and threats to leave the country.
    Didn't the Republicans start this nonsense with Clenis?
  • FBW
    Many of the polls in the primary season were wrong. the reason for this is that polls are still conducted on telephone lines, landlines, and not on cell phones. That makes all the difference. I hope I am wrong, I support Obama, but I am nervoouse all getout
  • FBW
    Austin,
    Wanna bet? You will hear the same "he's not my president" cries that we heard from demos after Bush stole Florida.
    I left the country instead of living in the USA under Bush and the Patriot act came to reality. I hope I am NOT joined by right wingnuts after Obama wins, but it would be better than mcCain winning, for me, the country and the world.
  • onleyone
    AR:

    c'mon, man - i thought you were actually joking at first! people are people, liberal or conservative or centrist, democrat or republican or libertarian. rick moran at RWNH has a post up in response to the nuttery of the republicans and social conservatives in his comment section; read that, then follow the link to the post that he's defending.

    truly, truly disturbing.
  • AustinRoth
    Gee guys - excuse me for having a different opinion than the mostly Leftist crowd here. I sure seemed to have touched SOME kind of nerve with what I thought was a generally mild comment.

    Maybe if I make it a little clearer to everyone you will all not be so offended by my lack of Orthodoxy. Yes, you will be able to find places here and there where someone from the Right will say that, only because they lack any originality and somehow think it signifies 'payback', which of course is silly. However, there will be no huge sense of disenfranchisement felt or expressed by the Right at anywhere near the levels done so by the left at Bush.

    If, as is likely, Obama is elected, the overall response from the Right will be disappointment that they lost, and anger focused internally at the party leadership and McCain in particular. The small number of nuts will be just that, a small number. You won't see the explosion of commentators and posters that ultimately lead to the netroots wing of the Democratic party. That was all I was trying to say.

    BTW boot - the t-shirt one is the site I was referring to when i said one was obviously tongue-in-cheek. Surprised you cannot see that.
  • onleyone
    i think we'll have to agree to disagree. i can easily see the same thing happening in the dittohead crowd - if not cries of "we're leaving", then quite possibly a rabid reaction to anti-american americans who voted in a 'socialist'. i am a centrist in a family of social conservatives, and the fear and anger is palpable even now, pre-election.

    but you are certainly free to your own view.
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