Comments on: Pew Poll: McCain Narrows Obama Lead To Six Points

By: elrod

elrod — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 02:10:44 +0000

Actually, the Pew poll is just more realistic than the last one. The prior poll had Obama up 15 points and it just wasn't credible. This one actually shows Obama with about the same number as last time – but McCain picking up undecideds that he probably already had in his pocket.

I wouldn't call this “narrowing.” I'd call it more of a “correction” of an outlier last time.

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 01:17:29 +0000

And yet Intrade's odds continue to move in Obama's favor.

I'll be sitting on pins and needles until the election is over.

By: T_Steel

T_Steel — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 00:52:51 +0000

My 2 cents:

Chances are 50/50 for either candidate. 'Nuff said.

By: Ricorun

Ricorun — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 00:16:07 +0000

JWeidner: I've got to say Joe, you've got an interesting blogging style when it comes to a lot of your political posts. You seem to state a particular fact or finding, then follow it up with two or three questions. It always makes me think of the old Batman series, where the episode would end and the narrator would conclude with things like “Will Batman and Robin avoid being dunked in boiling oil?…

Lol! I can't say I came up with the same visual (it is provocative and entertaining though, lol!), but I have been wondering along the same lines. Not that there's anything wrong with the exercise. The most important and the most primary thing is to try to make people think — far more so than to simply agree.

By: JSpencer

JSpencer — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 23:55:41 +0000

All the reporting of Obama being so far ahead reminds me of the projections on election night before all the voting has been completed – projections which have proven wrong before. Polls are fine and dandy, but don't always tell the story. Think about all the low information voters, the Bradley effect voters, and the remnants of the so-called silent majority. Those will mostly break for McCain. Also factor in the uncertainty when it comes to the youth vote. On one hand they tend to be more difficult to poll, which may work in Obama's favor, but on the other hand, they traditionally fizzle before getting to the finishing line… which means they talk about voting but don't show up. I'd love to see a blowout, but my expectation is something closer to a squeeker.

By: JWeidner

JWeidner — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 23:53:30 +0000

I've got to say Joe, you've got an interesting blogging style when it comes to a lot of your political posts. You seem to state a particular fact or finding, then follow it up with two or three questions. It always makes me think of the old Batman series, where the episode would end and the narrator would conclude with things like “Will Batman and Robin avoid being dunked in boiling oil? Will catwoman scratch batman's back? Is the joker's joke on batman? Find out next week! Saaaaame bat-time, saaaaame bat-channel!”

I'm not trying to be critical or anything…it's just that whenever I read your posts, I read them in the batman narrator's voice in my head…wonder what that says about me….

Keep up the good work!

By: MaryL

MaryL — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 23:33:34 +0000

From Talking Points Memo:

A new national poll is going beyond saying Obama is ahead: It's predicting that Obama will win by six points. The final Pew poll predicts that the outcome will be Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with the remainder split among third-party candidates. ... In an interview, Pew's director of survey research Scott Keeter explained to us how they arrived at that 52%-46% predicted outcome. Pew performed a statistical analysis looking at the remaining undecideds on the basis of their demographics and their answers to issue questions, in order to project how they'll vote -- if they'll vote at all, that is.

"This is an unusual group of people, anybody who could get to this point in the campaign and not have made a decision," Keeter said. "So you have to think some of these people are not even going to vote." Pew predicts a very narrow break of undecideds to McCain, and it won't be enough to overcome Obama's lead.