AP: Obama Now Has Enough Electoral College Votes To Defeat McCain
The AP has released an analysis saying Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama now has enough electoral votes to defeat Republican Sen. John McCain and that it’s highly unlikely McCain can piece together enough states to win. Here’s part of it:
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and with states to spare — according to an Associated Press analysis that shows he is now moving beyond typical Democratic territory to challenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.
Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he still seemingly won’t have enough votes to prevail, according to the analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates’ TV spending patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists. McCain does have a path to victory but it’s a steep climb: He needs a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.
Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286 votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has 21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up for grabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where the race is primarily being contested in the homestretch.
Read it in its entirety. Here’s what this means:
*Other news organizations and polling organizations will soon come out with their final takes on the final electoral college count as well.
*If there are a slew of predictions that Obama has a lock on it, it could depress McCain’s vote. The McCain campaign will likely continue to try to motivate GOPers to get to the polls by pulling out all stops between now and Tuesday.
*Predictions that Obama is likely to win could also work against Obama. Some Democrats and their supporters may feel it really doesn’t matter if their one vote isn’t cast, a belief shown to be inaccurate in 2000.
*The rest of today and Monday could be the ugliest days of the campaign (if that is possible).
*The impact of early voting on who won what will be a key topic of study for political scientists and could lead to changes in the way campaigns apportion usage of their hardest-hitting material. Waiting until the last days may now be a mistake.
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