How Long of a Night Will Tuesday Be?

I was going to write this post, and actually began a draft of it last night, but I was too lazy and Allahpundit at Hot Air beat me to it. While I personally think some of the commenters in that thread may have begun drinking a bit early, AP’s assessment of the key states to watch and what time the polls close in each is pretty close to what I had.

7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
———————————–
9 p.m. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota
10 p.m. Nevada, Montana

Please take a look at Allahpundit’s analysis which might be a tad bit more hopeful from McCain’s perspective than my own analysis, but is still pretty much on target. At 7 pm Eastern, check to see if Obama carried Virginia. If he did, it’s not over, but McCain develops a major migraine. The first huge one comes at 7:30. While I doubt they will finish their count quickly and cleanly, should they manage to do so and the Buckeye State goes to Obama, the election is pretty much over and you Obama fans can start popping the champagne.

At 8 pm Eastern, we’ll see Pennsylvania and Florida. Again, we may not see a fast decision in Florida, but if either of them go to Obama (even if the previous ones all went to McCain) then it’s still pretty much over and Obama is likely to be your next president. If McCain runs the table on *most* of the states above the dotted line, including all of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, then Obama still has a path to victory, but it’s going to be a long night and McCain still has life in his campaign. Obama will need to scoop up the West and pick off one or two of the smaller states above the dotted line to secure 270.