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Would Biden Serve Two Terms?
If current projections hold true and the Obama/Biden ticket carries the day on Tuesday, this is the question posed by Festers at Newshoggers, in what he describes as Biden’s “Cheney Problem.”
Let us assume that Barack Obama and Joe Biden win on Tuesday. I think that is becoming extraordinarily likely. This will produce one hell of an interesting Republican primary in 2012 as there are multiple divided power blocs, but also a very divided Democratic primary cycle in 2016 as there will be no natural successor. Joe Biden will suffer from the Cheney problem. He’ll be too old to credibly run or threaten to run for the 2016 term.
Just something to think about in a couple of years if there is any speculation that Biden won’t run for VP in 2012 as that would be a natural point for a successor to be anointed.
It’s an interesting question, Fester, and one which really gets to the heart of the Democrats’ ability to learn from the actions of their opponents. The selection of Dick Cheney by George W. Bush carried a number of benefits for the GOP ticket. After 9/11 and the launch of two wars, Cheney’s newfound neocon hawkish tendencies made him an ideal water carrier for the pro-war agenda. But from day one, the Republicans knew they would be rolling the dice this year, as there was no way that Cheney – with both his advanced age and multiple coronary events – would dare take a shot at the nomination. An open field leads to the type of acrimony and infighting we saw in the GOP primary this year.
Biden has had a few medical issues himself and is getting on in years. Will he claim that health concerns are prompting him to “spend more time with his family” in 2012, opening the door for Obama to anoint a potential successor? I’m far too burned out to even begin speculating who that might be, but a failure to put a new contender in that slot will lead the Democrats to the same thing McCain faced this spring. (Assuming, that is, that Obama could hold fast for two terms, which is definitely up in the air.)
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6 Responses to “Would Biden Serve Two Terms?”
Personnally, I have a lot of problems with the VP always being the nominee. Gore has been the only exception.
I think the GOP problems this year were the consequences of their multiple weaknesses and failures. If Biden's health is good and the team is working well, I'd rather not switch that horse in mid stream.
8 years will give a lot of strong Dems to get experience in State houses, Congress and the Cabinet. I doubt we will be lacking for good candidates.
Three years from now it may be something for Biden to consider.
If Barack Obama was a smart man, he'd take a break for four years anyway and hand a sure win over to Hillary and whoever she picks as VP. Then in four years she hands the race back over to Barack who will then run with another mate, refreshed and rested for another term. So we would then have 12 consecutive years of a fresh democratic president and fresh VPs.
Sounds fresh to me! lol…
Unfortunately, Sil, only one candidate in history has ever won non-sequential terms of office. People are fickle and have short memories, always looking for the next big thing. It would be a risky strategy to say the least.
Here's a proposed candidate to replace Biden in 2012: Mark Warner.
Sil, Hillary Clinton won't be the next President. As for replacing Biden as VP, that certainly is possible. I suspect it's unlikely, because that means she'll run against Obama in 2012 for the Dem nomination (we can be confident she will, if she accepts any executive position now).
Mark Warner — why not? He has the same teevee perfect appearance Obama has, complete with nice smile. (Romney on the GOP side will have aged too much by then.)
It's weird how things work out. Needless to say this has been a weird election. Why not use innovation in splitting up the democratic terms to make it last 12 years…or more?
Burnout will be a huge problem in the next 12 years. Moreso than any other administration I can think of…wars and a depression at the same time…and an massive overhaul of energy sources… Could make sense to innovate…