Why McCain’s Former Supporters And Republicans Are Increasingly Jumping The McCain Ship

And so now former President Ronald Reagan’s former chief of staff Ken Duberstein endorses Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.

The parade is getting almost as long as Pasadena’s Rose Bowl Parade.

So exactly what is happening to John McCain and his campaign? It’s worth noting again that what you’re seeing is not Republican disloyalty but manifestations of political content loyalty.

McCain’s biggest problem is that his 2008 campaign is to the 2000 John McCain what the New Coke was to Classic Coke.

Those who enthusiastically supported McCain in 2000 (such as yours truly) gave him the benefit of the doubt until they eventually ran out of benefits to give, due to instances that raised real questions about his judgment (appointing Sarah Palin and repeatedly insisting she is absolutely highly qualified and ready to be President in what sounded like George Bush insisting Harriet Miers was the most qualified person in the country to sit on the Supreme Court), coolness in the midst of crises (McCain’s Hail Marys showed a troubling lack of political impulse control), thoughtfulness (the John McCain of 2000 was all about issues and America while the 2008 McCain seems all about short-term tactics and attempts at political definition suggesting some Americans are quite as American as his supporters are) and the sincerity of his previous proclamations on matters such as running an issues-oriented campaign (his 2008 campaign has teetered on the brink of McCarthyism).

McCain retains some of his loyal 2000 supporters who still feel his amazing life story, foreign policy work in the Senate, knowledge of military issues, hard line foreign policy, authentic efforts to reach across the aisle regardless of Republican party ire, service to his country and past incarnation as a real maverick distrusted by both parties trumps the 2008 reservations that are causing others to vote for Obama.

Meanwhile, Republicans identified with the first President George Bush and traditional conservatives see little “meat” of classic Goldwater/Reagan conservatism as they’ve watched McCain and Palin throw out “red meat” to social conservatives and new conservatives influenced by the Limbaugh-Kristol-Hannity cable/radio talk show culture. This political talk radio culture relies heavily on defining the opposition in exaggerated, often inflammatory terms so that partisans feel they must flock to the polls to save the Republic from a grave threat.

The cable/talk radio political culture discusses conservatism, but is really more a social conservationism movement more preoccupied with attaining power by discrediting opponents than affirmatively convincing voters to adopt specific policies and embrace specific conservative ideas.

The glue that seems to unite the defecting 2000 McCain supporters with the Goldwater/Reagan/Bush conservatives jumping the McCain ship seems to be his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin for the Vice Presidential spot on the ticket.

Critics consider her a divider, rather than a unifier — provincial rather than someone who genuinely has a more thoughtful, world view. When she was first named as Veep, many pundits suggested she could turn out to be a kind of conservative Sen. Hillary Clinton, an admittedly sexist assumption. But she is evolving into more of a 21st century version of Richard Nixon.

The most notable consensus among those who’ve broken with McCain is: Palin is unqualified to be Vice President, notwithstanding assertively stated and presented spin from McCain supporters.

McCain’s big problem: several polls now show Palin may be shaping up to be The Anchor From Alaska on the McCain ticket and the media now does seem primed to pounce on her every mistake.

Even worse for McCain: his overall bad press continues unabated — such as when his key aide and supporter Lawrence Eagleburger, the first President George Bush’s Secretary of State, was asked about Palin. “Damning with faint praise” is too complimentary a way to characterize Eagleburger’s comments. When you read this, remember this is coming from a McCain SUPPORTER:

A former Republican Secretary of State and one of John McCain’s most prominent supporters offered a stunningly frank and remarkably bleak assessment of Sarah Palin’s capacity to handle the presidency should such a scenario arise.

Lawrence Eagleburger, who served as Secretary of State under George H.W. Bush and whose endorsement is often trumpeted by McCain, said on Thursday that the Alaska governor is not only unprepared to take over the job on a moment’s notice but, even after some time in office, would only amount to an “adequate” commander in chief.

“And I devoutly hope that [she] would never be tested,” he added for good measure — referring both to Palin’s policy dexterity and the idea of McCain not making it through his time in office. (Listen to audio below.)

The remarks took place during an interview on National Public Radio that was, ironically, billed as “making the case” for a McCain presidency. Asked by the host whether Palin could step in during a time of crisis, Eagleburger reverted to sarcasm before leveling the harsh blow.

“It is a very good question,” he said, pausing a few seconds, then adding with a chuckle: “I’m being facetious here. Look, of course not.”

Read the entire piece to read the full quotes.

Can McCain still win?

You can now see pundits edging towards predicting an Obama win, but carefully coupling that with journalistic hedges, pointing to other polls that show a tightening. And while a 1948 surprise win-from-far-behind did happen before, the number of Republicans who are jumping ship from the McCain ticket suggest it’s highly unlikely McCain will prevail this year.

In past elections the GOP could rely on getting out its base, which generally meant the whole party. You can now see that in 2008 the GOP is not unified — with disunity is so pronounced that some famous GOPers are willing to announce that they’re voting for Obama. This year the Republicans will likely get their hard core, encouraged-by-Sean-Hannity-to-vote base. In other words, McCain could basically get the base of his party’s base.

McCain’s task will be to peel off enough independent voters and Democrats from Obama to win the battleground states.

And he could well do it:

After all, he has already successfully peeled off enough 2000 McCain campaign supporters and traditional conservatives from his own candidacy.

Cartoon by Patrick Corrigan, The Toronto Star