An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents, with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, and right

« The Conservative Case for Obama

Big Doings In Little Delaware: A Biden Homecoming »

Random Election 2008 Thoughts

Posted by TONY CAMPBELL, Columnist in At TMV, Politics.
Oct 31st, 2008 | Comments

Here are my predictions for Election Day 2008 and for the next four years.

Two weeks ago, I wrote the following prediction for Election Day:

“Three weeks is not a lot of time in politics and this was McCain’s last best chance in salvaging a close outcome on November 4th. Prediction: Obama will win by a landslide – 57% to 43%; Electoral College outcome – 315 to 223 (give or take 5 votes).” With five days left, I have to revise my earlier prediction. I don’t see the Electoral Vote count being this close; my revised prediction is Obama 348 to 190 for McCain. McCain, in latest polling numbers, leads Obama by only 4 points in Arizona and may even lose his home state. The only nominee to lose their home state in the last 50 years is Al Gore in 2000 and that cost Mr. Gore the White House.

Other predictions during the Obama Administration:

Hillary Rodham Clinton is nominated and confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The G.O.P., divided by the Sarah Palin 2012 issue, will split and cause the formation of a third party that will field a moderate candidate for President in 2012.

On a lighter note, President Obama will know the difference between “The Jeffersons” and “Sanford and Son.”

Tomorrow is supposed to be a beautiful day for most of the country. I plan to get away from my keyboard and go outside to enjoy one of the last 60 plus degree days of 2008. Take a few minutes and do the same for yourself. Politics will still be here on Sunday.

Ads by Project Wonderful! Your ad here, right now: $0

jdave

r u kiddin about that third party business?

AustinRoth

"Hillary Rodham Clinton is nominated and confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court"

I will take THAT bet!

catfiend

I think you'll find that McGovern lost South Dakota as well - not that it would have made as much difference in his chances as Tennessee did to Gore.

I hope you're right about a third party!

Silhouette

I was just thinking that yesterday...the GOP is splintered so badly that it will lose most of its membership as long as the radical neocons hold the reins. Luntics always are off-putting. And this time it cost them the election. Nobody is buying that McCain is a maverick and everyone knows (within and without the GOP) that he's four-more years of the same, top-coated with "high-gloss maverick" whitewash.

People are just tired of empty rhetoric, hypocrites who get bathroom gay sex on weekdays and attend church religiously...telling us how we're all going to hell if we don't follow their ilk.

There is nothing more tiring than an obtuse hypocrite. And the GOP must either retool itself or become relegated to the status of something like the green party. Still good numbers but don't look for any of their candidates in the Whitehouse any time soon...

superdestroyer

Why would a political party that is being buried by the changing demographics of the U.S. split into two parties. Neither Party would be a national party (able to put a candidate on the ballot in all fifty states and the moderate-right party would have massive problems finding candidate to run down ballot).

It is much more likely that the U.S. will become a one party state where issues go back to being decided in back rooms on in court rooms instead of with elections.

The next question is how does a democratic republican actually funciton with only one relevant political party.

pacatrue

I just want to say that McCain looks pretty good in the afro. (Follow the Sanford and Son link.)

JSpencer

"Lunatics always are off-putting." ~ Silhouette

Not to other lunatics they're not. ;-)

As for the Hillary SC apt, it's an interesting idea. Hmmm....

Rambie

I don't see a new party, but maybe more of the moderate Republicans will being to register as Libertarians. The party is there, just has been ignored by the GOP for 30 years.

blog comments powered by Disqus