Democrats: Don’t Order The White House Drapes Just Yet

Take a cyber-tour of Democratic Party-oriented newsblogs and websites and despite warnings that partisans have to be on the lookout for overconfidence and continue to work hard until the last vote is cast, there is a perceptible feeling of….overconfidence.

But perhaps it’s time to take a reality check, as Dick Polman notes here. The bottom line: an Obama administration scares some people — the question is…how many.

Admittedly, it is getting easier to imagine that it’s almost “over” — given how the GOP now seems at war within itself…and even within it’s own Presidential ticket. For SURE.

Meanwhile, there is the war of the pollsters.,,

McCain’s pollster insists it’s going to be a tight election night race. But there are signs Obama is picking up more male voters.

And Bill Clinton’s former pollster Stan Greenberg contends an Obama “earthquake” is about to occur — not because American voters find the Democrats so much better now but because they have concluded the Republicans are lousy. Greenberg has an interesting analysis:

According to Greenberg the crucial point in the race was the conventions. Until then he says he was worried that McCain could win. His campaign was based on “change over experience.” He went into convention saying he was tough on national security and Obama was too big a risk. But it was at this point that he “over-learnt” the lessons of Hillary Clinton who had run and lost against Obama by saying she offered experience and would be “ready from day one.”

The Republicans then took the decision that they needed to run as change too and took the calculated gamble to throw in Sarah Palin as VP. The message was “two outsiders will bring change to Washington.”

Crucially when the economic crisis took hold in earnest with Lehmans going to the wall on 15 September it became clear that McCain had the wrong team in place. It was now about the economy and not about change. Greenberg says that if McCain had chosen someone like Mitt Romney – someone who could talk credibly on the economy, something Palin has failed to do – then it could have been different.

Instead, “Obama has won because of his steadiness. Voters did not pick Obama on change but because of steadiness.”

What should McCain do in last week? “He should have become Bob Dole. He realised he wasn’t going to win but thought about his reputation and ran a graceful campaign. He (McCain) has been totally negative. He looks so angry.”

Which brings it full circle. If Americans are feeling that Obama is too risky, they won’t mind an angry McCain. But if they’ve really had enough of Republican governance, then McCain’s no-holds-barred-except-Reverend-Wright finale won’t sit well with many voters.

The big question: what impact has all of this early voting had on state and national margins? Most analysis tends to look at the race in a 2000-2004 framework.

The bottom line: just as there have been contradictions in the primary season, there seem to be some contradictions heading into Election Day — and Republicans still could hold some hope and Democrats could still find they’re disappointed on Election Night. Because this lady hasn’t sung yet.