Comments on: Test Your Prognostication!

By: Voices without Votes » Predict the Election

Voices without Votes » Predict the Election — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 17:49:28 +0000

[...] Borrowing an idea I first saw over at TMV, I’d be interested in seeing how readers of Poligazette think this election will turn out. [...]

By: Jazz

Jazz — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 10:32:10 +0000

Well, that's the end of the guesses. Good luck!

By: DaveA

DaveA — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:59:00 +0000

Weee , my guesses…

Electoral: Obama – 367, McCain – 171
Popular: Obama – 52 percent, McCain – 44 percent
Senate: Democrats – 58, Republicans – 40, Independents – 2 (counting liberman)
House: Democrats – 260, Republicans – 175

By: jdledell

jdledell — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:55:54 +0000

Here is my SWAG

Popular vote = Obama 52.3%
Electoral College = Obama 356 and McCain 182
Senate = 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 2 Independents
House = 256 Democrats and 179 Republicans

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:41:27 +0000

I couldn't save my edit on the earlier post since there was a reply. So without further ado here is my final prediction:

Obama/McCain/Other-

Electoral- 422/116/0

For the tie-breaker:
Pop vote: 54/46/<1% (rounding issue)
Senate: 58/40/2 (Lieb and Sand)
House: 266/169/0

By: ModDem72

ModDem72 — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:30:26 +0000

Electoral: Obama – 291, McCain – 247
Popular: Obama – 50 percent, McCain – 46 percent
Senate: Democrats – 58, Republicans – 40, Independents – 2 (with Lieberman moving to the Repubs post election)
House: Democrats – 263, Republicans – 172

By: HappySurge

HappySurge — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:29:25 +0000

California: 55
Colorado: 9
Conneticut: 7
Delaware: 3
Washington, D.C.: 3
Florida: 27
Georgia: 15
Hawaii: 4
Illinois: 21
Iowa: 7
Louisiana: 9
Maine: 3
Maryland: 10
Massachusetts
Michigan: 17
Minnesota: 10
Missouri: 11
Montana: 3
Nebraska: 2
Nevada: 5
New Hampshire: 4
New Jersey: 15
New Mexico: 5
New York: 31
North Carolina: 15
North Dakota: 3
Ohio: 20
Oregon: 7
Pennsylvania: 21
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
Virginia: 13
Washington: 11
Wisconsin: 10

This is roughly how I see him getting there. The upset being Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida and North Dakota. I wanted to say Arizona to, but I think that would just be brutal. I wish Obama had done more to push for Texas, but there's always 2012, I guess.

By: HappySurge

HappySurge — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:26:40 +0000

Electoral: Obama- 395, McCain-143
Popular: Obama-53%, MCain-44%
Senate: 60 Dems, 40 Republicans
House: 271 Dems, 164 Republicans

I think my electoral guess is way overestimating it for Obama. The popular vote margin feels right to me. I think McCain, on the whole, will wind up underperforming in blue states in a way that will severely damage his overall vote-count.

The House number is quite honestly pulled from nowhere. I just think Dems are going to get the maximum number. They beat out so many expectations in 2006. Likewise that being my logic for the Senate count.

I got my electoral vote count by adding up all the states I thought Obama had a decent chance of winning, and saying, 'well, look at 2006', and going right ahead and putting it in his column.

I will be very wrong, and I will give my friends much more conservative estimates so I can seem smart to them.

By: el_loco1965

el_loco1965 — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:04:08 +0000

Electoral: Obama – 311, McCain – 227
Popular: Obama – 51%, McCain – 47%, Others 2%
Senate: Democrats – 56, Republicans – 42, Independents 2
House: Democrats – 255, Republicans – 180

By: randynacol2002

randynacol2002 — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 18:30:50 +0000

Electoral: Obama 256,McCain 283
Pop: Obama 48%/McCain46% others 1%
Senate: 59 Dems/ Rep 41
House: Dem 260 / Rep175

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 00:10:27 +0000

Just call me a contrarian! If Obama's supporters think the game is over and their work is done, then McCain will win. Obama's supporters need to all turn out and vote. If they leave it to others to vote then it will be a sad day for Obama.

By: Jazz

Jazz — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 11:56:16 +0000

Wow! Stockboy is giving McCain New Hampshire? Obama is up something like 16 in the polling average. That would be shocker indeed.

By: Michael Merritt

Michael Merritt — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 07:27:20 +0000

Electoral: Obama 292 McCain 246
Popular: Obama: 53% McCain 48% Other 2%
Senate: 55 Dem/43 Rep/2 Ind.
House: 256 Dem/179 Rep

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 05:53:04 +0000

Obama/McCain/Other-

Electoral- 252/286/0
Pop: 50/49/1%
Senate: 58/40/2 (Lieb, as one of the 2 others will go caucus with GOP, though)
House: 266/169/0

Yes, for those interested… At this time I do have McCain winning the electoral vote but Obama winning the popular vote. By coincidence the electoral vote is the same as it was in 2004, but the states are a little different.. I have McCain winning PA, NH and Obama winning IA, NV and VA.

BTW: I like Elyas' prediction…

By: AustinRoth

AustinRoth — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 01:55:01 +0000

Damn good showing, sport.

By: pacatrue

pacatrue — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 01:10:49 +0000

Silly Party: 3,417
Very Silly Party: 3,418
Slightly Silly Ticket: 0

The results are pretty much as I expected except that the other party won.

By: mlhradio

mlhradio — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:22:01 +0000

Electoral: 336 to 202
Popular vote: 52% to 47%
Senate: 58 Democratic, 42 Republican (and Lieberman will announce he will caucus with the Republicans before January)
House: 270 Democratic, 165 Republican

My gut says that I'm probably being a little too conservative -- there's more of a chance of a blowout, than there is of a squeaker. The networks will be straining to avoid calling the race for Obama Tuesday night within an hour after the first polls close.

By: This is to make sure that the wordpress upgrade went well.

This is to make sure that the wordpress upgrade went well. — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:57:09 +0000

[...] Test Your Prognostication! [...]

By: Jazz

Jazz — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:36:40 +0000

Nice work, guys! Keep 'em coming!

By: Lynx

Lynx — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:23:43 +0000

Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Popular Vote: Obama 52.9 McCain 46.7 Other: 0.4
Senate: Dem 57, Rep 41, Other 2
House: Dem 258 Rep 177