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Test Your Prognostication!
We’re going to hold a bit of a contest. You use the comments section to enter your guess for the mathematical outcome of the election. (If you can NOT register successfully for comments, you can e-mail your guess to jazzshaw@gmail.com and I’ll enter it for you.) You have until 5 pm Friday to enter or edit your entries. At that time, comments will be closed and no more entries will be taken. We’ll think of some sort of prize later.
You need to guess the number of electoral votes each candidate will receive.
For tiebreaking purposes, please also provide:
- Popular vote percentage for the winner
- Total number of Senate seats held by each party
- Total House seats held by each party
Good luck!
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30 Responses to “Test Your Prognostication!”
Obama 306 McCain 257
Obama 55% Mcain 44% Other 1%
Senate 58-Dem 42-Rep
House 260-Dem 175-Rep
Electoral Votes: Obama 326, McCain 237
Popular Votes: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, Other 3%
Senate: Dem 55, Rep 43, Inde 2
House: Dem 252, Rep 183
Obama 53%
Senate: 61 seats, including Lieberman and Sanders
House: 270 Democrats, 165 Republicans
Electoral Votes: Obama 303, McCain 235
Popular Votes: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, Other 3%
Senate: Democrats 56, Republican 43, Independent 1
House: Democrats 250, Republican 185
EV: Obama 322, McCain 216
Popular votes: Obama 53%, McCain 46%
Senate: Dem 58, Rep 40, Other 2
House: Dem 262 Rep 173
Obama 421, McCain 117
Senate Dem 60 Rep 38 Other 2
House Dem 282, Rep 153
Total Vote Percentage. Obama 52. McCain 45 Other 3.
This one is from Navigator104
My guess for election results.
Electoral College: Obama 481; McCain 157
Popular Vote: Obama 52.5%; McCain 47.5%
Senate Breakdown: Dem. 57; Rep. 41; Indep. 2
House: Dem. 257, Rep. 178
My guess for election results.
Electoral College: Obama 2,966; McCain -30
Popular Vote: Obama 192.7%; McCain -17.3%
Senate Breakdown: Dem. 166; Rep. 3
House: Dem. 1,482, Rep. 1
Obama 429 Mccain 109
Pop vote Obama 54.6, Mccain, 44.1 Ind. others 1.7
Senate Dem 61 Rep 37 Ind 2
House Dem 260 Rep 175
Electoral College: Obama 378, McCain 160
Popular Vote: Obama: 52.7, McCain, 46.3
Senate: Dem 58, Rep 40, Other 2
House: 269 Democrats, 166 Republicans
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Popular Vote: Obama 52.9 McCain 46.7 Other: 0.4
Senate: Dem 57, Rep 41, Other 2
House: Dem 258 Rep 177
Nice work, guys! Keep 'em coming!
[...] Test Your Prognostication! [...]
Electoral: 336 to 202
Popular vote: 52% to 47%
Senate: 58 Democratic, 42 Republican (and Lieberman will announce he will caucus with the Republicans before January)
House: 270 Democratic, 165 Republican
My gut says that I'm probably being a little too conservative — there's more of a chance of a blowout, than there is of a squeaker. The networks will be straining to avoid calling the race for Obama Tuesday night within an hour after the first polls close.
Silly Party: 3,417
Very Silly Party: 3,418
Slightly Silly Ticket: 0
The results are pretty much as I expected except that the other party won.
Damn good showing, sport.
Obama/McCain/Other-
Electoral- 252/286/0
Pop: 50/49/1%
Senate: 58/40/2 (Lieb, as one of the 2 others will go caucus with GOP, though)
House: 266/169/0
Yes, for those interested… At this time I do have McCain winning the electoral vote but Obama winning the popular vote.
By coincidence the electoral vote is the same as it was in 2004, but the states are a little different.. I have McCain winning PA, NH and Obama winning IA, NV and VA.
BTW: I like Elyas' prediction…
Electoral: Obama 292 McCain 246
Popular: Obama: 53% McCain 48% Other 2%
Senate: 55 Dem/43 Rep/2 Ind.
House: 256 Dem/179 Rep
Wow! Stockboy is giving McCain New Hampshire? Obama is up something like 16 in the polling average. That would be shocker indeed.
Just call me a contrarian! If Obama's supporters think the game is over and their work is done, then McCain will win. Obama's supporters need to all turn out and vote. If they leave it to others to vote then it will be a sad day for Obama.
Electoral: Obama 256,McCain 283
Pop: Obama 48%/McCain46% others 1%
Senate: 59 Dems/ Rep 41
House: Dem 260 / Rep175
Electoral: Obama – 311, McCain – 227
Popular: Obama – 51%, McCain – 47%, Others 2%
Senate: Democrats – 56, Republicans – 42, Independents 2
House: Democrats – 255, Republicans – 180
Electoral: Obama- 395, McCain-143
Popular: Obama-53%, MCain-44%
Senate: 60 Dems, 40 Republicans
House: 271 Dems, 164 Republicans
I think my electoral guess is way overestimating it for Obama. The popular vote margin feels right to me. I think McCain, on the whole, will wind up underperforming in blue states in a way that will severely damage his overall vote-count.
The House number is quite honestly pulled from nowhere. I just think Dems are going to get the maximum number. They beat out so many expectations in 2006. Likewise that being my logic for the Senate count.
I got my electoral vote count by adding up all the states I thought Obama had a decent chance of winning, and saying, 'well, look at 2006', and going right ahead and putting it in his column.
I will be very wrong, and I will give my friends much more conservative estimates so I can seem smart to them.
California: 55
Colorado: 9
Conneticut: 7
Delaware: 3
Washington, D.C.: 3
Florida: 27
Georgia: 15
Hawaii: 4
Illinois: 21
Iowa: 7
Louisiana: 9
Maine: 3
Maryland: 10
Massachusetts
Michigan: 17
Minnesota: 10
Missouri: 11
Montana: 3
Nebraska: 2
Nevada: 5
New Hampshire: 4
New Jersey: 15
New Mexico: 5
New York: 31
North Carolina: 15
North Dakota: 3
Ohio: 20
Oregon: 7
Pennsylvania: 21
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
Virginia: 13
Washington: 11
Wisconsin: 10
This is roughly how I see him getting there. The upset being Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida and North Dakota. I wanted to say Arizona to, but I think that would just be brutal. I wish Obama had done more to push for Texas, but there's always 2012, I guess.
Electoral: Obama – 291, McCain – 247
Popular: Obama – 50 percent, McCain – 46 percent
Senate: Democrats – 58, Republicans – 40, Independents – 2 (with Lieberman moving to the Repubs post election)
House: Democrats – 263, Republicans – 172
I couldn't save my edit on the earlier post since there was a reply. So without further ado here is my final prediction:
Obama/McCain/Other-
Electoral- 422/116/0
For the tie-breaker:
Pop vote: 54/46/<1% (rounding issue)
Senate: 58/40/2 (Lieb and Sand)
House: 266/169/0
Here is my SWAG
Popular vote = Obama 52.3%
Electoral College = Obama 356 and McCain 182
Senate = 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 2 Independents
House = 256 Democrats and 179 Republicans
Weee , my guesses…
Electoral: Obama – 367, McCain – 171
Popular: Obama – 52 percent, McCain – 44 percent
Senate: Democrats – 58, Republicans – 40, Independents – 2 (counting liberman)
House: Democrats – 260, Republicans – 175
Well, that's the end of the guesses. Good luck!
[...] Borrowing an idea I first saw over at TMV, I’d be interested in seeing how readers of Poligazette think this election will turn out. [...]