Where’s the Tightening?
When Obama hit his peak numbers a week or two ago, conventional wisdom said the race would tighten somewhat as we got closer to the election. But as has happened so many times this year, conventional wisdom has turned out wrong, so far.
Above is an aggregate of all national polls taken this year. While McCain seems to be improving from his nadir of two weeks ago, we haven’t seen a corresponding drop in Obama’s numbers. They remain steady above 50%, and if anything continue to improve. McCain’s only real hope is to cut Obama down. He’s thrown a lot against the wall in recent weeks (Ayers, socialism, etc.), and nothing seems to stick to the Teflon Candidate.
What’s remarkable, when you look at the average of polls throughout the year, is how stable the race has been since Obama sealed the nomination. We heard a lot, until recently, about how volatile and neck-and-neck the race was, but the graph shows Obama with a pretty steady lead, minus the period immediately after the Republican convention. It seemed at the time as if the Palin pick had changed the dynamics of the race. But looking back, it now looks just like a bounce.
The state polls have been less consistent, however, and that’s where Obama is really opening up significant leads. He is ahead by double-digits in most states won by John Kerry in 2004, and is pulling ahead in swing states like Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania. Hell, there have been three polls this week showing McCain’s lead in Arizona down to single-digits (the closest had it at two points). It’s very unlikely he’ll win Arizona, but at this point an Obama landslide may be more likely than a tightening race.
Nate Silver, the best at this sort of analysis, says the following has to happen before we can expect a close outcome on election night: “John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.”
He currently projects a 3.3% chance of that happening.
Cross-posted at Ablogistan.
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4 Responses to “Where’s the Tightening?”
Look at the trends and at the numbers. It's been flat recently and likely won't change in the next week as far as the prospects for Obama and CusterXXXXXXMcCain.
(Consider Vote Share to be likely outcome; consider Winner-Take-All the probability either will win.)
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/pricehistory/priceh…
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/pricehistory/priceh…
Not going to be a tightening. In fact as most of us have believed for about 2 years now………this is going to be a bloodbath for the corrupt GOP. A party that is in need of a total and complete overhaul. A party that has failed itself and its adherents. A party of fiscal and personal responsibility that has helped oversee a financial meltdown and allowed the price of oil to sky rocket to 150 dollars per bbl without lifting a finger to stop it.
Barak Obama is not qualified to be president but he will in a landslide. America will be giving him a mandate. Clean up this shit. This cesspool that is congress. However the democrats will lose site of what the voters are asking them to do. He will instead do all kinds of stupid shit He is after all a politician. Meanwhile a cloture proof, veto proof congress will do what the GOP did…………corrupt themselves in the filth and squalor that is politics…..that is legal thievery……that is a mandate to steal.
We the people will speak……….they the liars…….will lie and once again we will be right back to where we were…..only the names have changed.
So why do the networks, AP and Reuters all go with Zogby who shows the race really tightening up? His is the only poll that says this. Also this seems to be the only poll-see MTP on sun last-that McCain thinks is accurate. According to what I read on 538, Zogbys methodology is way outdated and also does not account for all those who do not have/use land lines(no robodialing allowed on cell phone numbers)
timr – they also go to Obama outliers for a different take. The aggregate of polls at 538, RCP and Pollster show that the race isn't tightening.