Quote Of The Day: What Independent Voters REALLY Want
Oct 20th, 2008 | 8 responses
Centrist author John Avlon, who worked for then-President Bill Clinton and then-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, writing in The Wall Street Journal, takes a look at what independent voters as a group tend to want.
And once again Avlon, who wrote the best political book ever on American centrist voters, Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics, shines a light on trends that explain why the 2008 presidential campaign has gone the way it has — and, by implication, how it could unfold with new events, including former Secretary of State Colin Powell’s dramatic endorsement of Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama. Here are a few highlights:
Independent voters, once a political afterthought, are now the largest and fastest-growing segment of the American electorate.
This shift led to the nomination of two candidates who ran against the polarizing establishments of their own parties, while preaching the need to reach across the red-state/blue-state divide. Now independent voters may determine who is elected president.
The question in the end, of course, will be who has convinced independent voters that they are better-equipped and suited to authentically reach across party lines. MORE:
Forty-three percent of undecided swing voters are independents and 47% are centrists, according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. Independent voters have been on the rise while the parties have been playing to a shrinking base. This is a generational change. There are now six states where independents outnumber both Republicans and Democrats — the swing states of Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire as well as New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts.
Key battleground states this year such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina each have more than one million independent voters. In California, Florida and Nevada, the number of independent voters has increased more than 300% in the past 20 years, while Democratic and Republican registration has flatlined.
Avlon then traces the growth of the independent voter in American politics and current trends and indications about where the are. Basically, independent voters are fiscally conservative and strong on national security. They would be, theoretically, inclined to support Republican candidate Sen. John McCain if McCain matched other criteria as well. And here is Avlon’s conclusion:
Looking at this profile, it’s easy to see why John McCain is outperforming the Republican brand. Mr. McCain’s credibility with independents comes from his principled independence and record of forging bipartisan coalitions. Barack Obama’s appeal to independents is rooted in his promise to transcend the left/right, black/white debates. He beat Hillary Clinton 2-1 among independents.
Throughout the summer, independents split their support evenly between Messrs. McCain and Obama, with high approval ratings for both candidates. After the Republican convention in September, independents broke for Mr. McCain by a 15-point margin and he surged in swing state polls. But the recent financial crisis increased economic anxiety among moderates and the middle class, making the election a referendum on the Bush administration. Independents swung to Mr. Obama. Colin Powell’s endorsement will validate the decision for many independents.
The next president will inherit the oval office at a time of economic turmoil, with a combustible combination of high expectations and an angry electorate. But the next president can unite the country even in difficult times if he understands this truth: Americans are not deeply divided — our political parties are — and the explosive growth of independent voters is a direct reaction to this disconnect.
Read it in its entirety…
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8 Responses to “Quote Of The Day: What Independent Voters REALLY Want”
As the U.S. heads to quickly becoming a one party state, independents will become as irrelevant as Repulbicans will become. As the Democratic party becomes the one relevant political party, the Democratic Primary elections will be the relevant elections and then they will be relevant once a generation when an existing Democrat office holder retires or is elected to higher office.
In 2016, the presidential election will occur in the time frame between the Iowa Caucuses and Super Tuesday. If the same candidate wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, the election could be over in a couple of weeks. It will also lead to the longest transition period in American History.
SD, you've been posting this same comment on here for at least 2 years….
It is because everyone else has been posting about what the Democrats need to do to win more elections. All the Democrats need to do is wait and it will happen no matter what. Does anyone really believe that black and Hispanic voters will leave the Democratic party if Senator Obama screws everything up?
so, to me, every post about the failures of the Republican party and conservatives in generally needs to mention what the long term consequences are.
SD: “To me the consequences are the U.S. will become a one party state like every state north of Virginia is today.”
I'd rather live in the states north of Virginia which value diversity, than the Bible-belt states which wants to turn the US into a Christian theocracy (and I'm a Christian- I just believe in the separation of church and state as well as the divergent values each individual contributes to his/her community). What's best for me isn't best for anyone else and vice versa.
But, SD, I do understand what you're saying but I'm not ready to call teh Republican Party dead yet. If Obama wins we will have to see if the GOP is willing to rethink their party or will continue down the path they are on.
On the post… If Obama wins, then the Republicans will feel cheated, and vice versa. This is a highly emotional race.
Obama has been trying to reach across party lines and idealogies for years now while McCain is taking a “divide and conquer” approach.
StockboySF,
McCain went along with McCain-Feingold in a bipartisan fashion. Please name something Obama has done that could be considered bipartisan.
SD,
I think these would qualify as bipartisan:
“Lugar-Obama Proliferation and Threat Reduction Initiative”;
Obama/Lugar proposal of “The American Fuels Act to Reduce U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil” ;
the “Global Poverty Act” proposed by Hagel/Obama/Cantwell, and the
Coburn-Obama “OVERSEE Act”.
Independent voters will become the government , just as they were when the nation began, before the Republican-Democrats took over the government in 1800. The difference between independent voters and Democrats is that independent voters were created by the writing of the Constitution, whereas, Democrats are a self-created soiciety which seeks to eliminate the participation of everyone except their party members in government.
We saw the Nazi Party do the same thing in Germany. Political parties are nothing if not predictable. As soon as independent voters gain ballot access, the Democratic Party is history.