Comments on: Switching Cities with Obama

By: DLS

DLS — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 21:27:50 +0000

The main issue here isn't Democratic vote fraud, which is pernicious and as disgusting as the frequent lies about “disenfranchisement” when insisting on integrity and legality of the voting process. This year, Dem vote fraud plus the inevitable error rate probably won't be anything close to an amount of “noise” that prevents the voters' “signal” from being ascertained. Obama should rate in the mid-fifties per cent if not higher next month.

By: mikkel

mikkel — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:57:30 +0000

“He had read somewhere that, if Obama wasn’t up by at least 10-points in the polls going into November 4, his lead could evaporate quickly due to potential fraud at the polls, like the situations suspected in Florida in 2000 and rumored in Ohio in 2004.”

I am skeptical that there was widespread “fraud” in either election. Simultaneously it is obvious reading the Plain Dealer accounts that thousands if not tens of thousands of people in Cleveland (and I assume many cities across the country) were effectively disenfranchised because of a severe lack of voting machines and breakdowns — problems that weren't seen in rural or more affluent/conservative areas of the state. For this reason I am glad to see the large number of states that are having long pre-election voting periods and/or absentee ballots for any reason.

By: Zzzzz

Zzzzz — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:50:46 +0000

I was at Obama's rally in St. Louis. It was something!

By: DLS

DLS — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:46:59 +0000

Iowa Electronic Markets show it's close to being over! There's more divergence since the last debate. Perhaps a Powell Effect will be indicated later this week.

The divergence we've seen to date cannot be attributed to any bandwagon effect. It can be attributed instead to a large preference for Obama over McCain this year.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

15 days to go.