Comments on: McCain Now On Ascent In Various Polls

By: GeorgeSorwell

GeorgeSorwell — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 15:02:35 +0000

They are right and I am wrong about who led in the polls in 2004 and 2000.

Here's the RCP data for 2004 in chart form. Kerry did lead in a few, but very few. The line graph shows this more dramatically.

It's pretty hard to find any data on 2000, but a commenter at MSNBC posted this information. I accept that Bush had the clear lead going into actual voting.

As an Obama supporter, I don't mind being wrong about this. (I don't even mind being the only one to provide any links!!)

But consider Gore's comeback in the popular vote in 2000. I have to say it validates my sense that triumphalism is premature, to say the least.

By: elrod

elrod — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 02:54:04 +0000

BJ,
You are correct. Look at RCP's 2004 analysis and you can see that Bush's average lead in the end was about 2-3 points. A couple outliers had Kerry up – Zogby and Fox (yes, Fox News) had Kerry up at the end. Others, like the Battleground poll had Bush up 6. But the average was 2-3 points, which is how it ended up in the end.

By: Karlrich

Karlrich — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:20:10 +0000

I am a young White American; I never thought that we would be re-living this in America. Sarah Palin did not do Mccain any justice, she started a very negative tone here . She is putting such a division in our Country. How can America Trust you Mrs. Palin? Sarah Palin has factual issues that she needs to explain, such as the abuse of power, and who built her house. What does she mean by she likes visiting parts of the Country that is “PRO AMERICAN” IN MY VIEW SHE IS A RACIST. Many Republicans I know will not vote Republican because of her.

By: elrod

elrod — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:13:10 +0000

Great analysis, Joe. And I'm glad you linked to 538. Nate is exactly right – Hotline confirmed it in its poll too. Republicans have come back into the McCain fold again after the mortgage giveaway disaster.

The problem is that the financial crisis has cost McCain Independents and conservative Democrats too. And all the cries of “socialism” and “terrorism” will not get those voters to switch.

By: BJ Bjornson

BJ Bjornson — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:02:24 +0000

Enough with the "Kerry was ahead" nonsense. The race was certainly a lot closer, but as Ezra Klein pointed out a few days ago, when you look at the actual data, Bush was ahead in almost all of the polls. Narrowly to be sure, but ahead.

The Dems were, as the Republicans are now, doing all they could to convince themselves that Kerry was in fact doing better than the polls indicated, and seized on certain exit polls that looked favourable only to be disappointed. What is truly wacky, is that somehow it has become conventional wisdom that Kerry was doing better in the polls than he actually was. He wasn't. It was wishful thinking then, and as a result, rather unfounded reason for worry now.

By: GeorgeSorwell

GeorgeSorwell — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 22:38:24 +0000

I agree with T-Steel.

I sort of remember that Kerry and Gore were slightly ahead going into it.

By: T_Steel

T_Steel — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 22:17:35 +0000

Can I say it again ladies and gentlemen?

These polls mean nothing. November 4th and 5th mean everything. As far as I'm concerned, there is a 50/50 chance for both candidates.