The Last Real Chess Player – Colin Powell
Many of my colleagues have written after-action reports on the third and final debate tonight. I agree with most of them who state that Barack Obama is clearly in the drivers seat in the presidential campaign. Three weeks is not a lot of time in politics and this was McCain’s last best chance in salvaging a close outcome on November 4th. Prediction: Obama will win by a landslide – 57% to 43%; Electoral College outcome – 315 to 223 (give or take 5 votes).
However, the most interesting news comes from Colin Powell. I wrote a piece back in April where I reported on a quote by the former Secretary of State that he was intrigued by Obama’s candidacy. In July, I wrote another piece laying out a possible endorsement of Obama from Powell. My source, a close Powell insider, told me that Powell would not endorse Obama “anytime soon…Powell is being Powell.”
Well, now it is time for Powell to make his move. I expect this decision to be made public in time for the Sunday talk show circuit this weekend. Powell’s endorsement will clear the Independents and moderate Republicans from the fence post that they have been sitting on for the last six weeks.
Powell + endorsing Obama = Checkmate.
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If the popular vote total is 57-43, the electoral split will be MUCH greater. A 14 point win would lead to about a 398-143 electoral vote.
I disagree on the checkmate theory, though I know this endorsement has been much speculated about for some time. Here's why:
I do think moderates will think of it as a minor overall positive. A former Bush Secretary of State, and military celebrity of the first Gulf War, endorsing the Democratic candidate. But he will, unfortunately be seen by many as first and foremost, a black man endorsing a black man – and so all too easily dismissible. Also, he was often seen as at odds with the Bush administration during his tenure as SECSTATE, and even by the Left as a token minority appointment who was not just under appreciated, but completely overridden by SECDEF Rumsfeld and VP Cheney. Further of course, it was he who memorably made the theatrical case at the UN of Iraq's certain possession of WMD, and the impending mushroom cloud, or biological cloud, that Iraq might soon launch against the world at large, or worse, offer to Al Queda to do with as they wished.
His is yet another fine reputation largely destroyed by the Mayberry Machiavellians in the Bush Admin. It is undeserved for the most part, yet all too real. And so, I believe such an endorsement might occupy a small slice of a news cycle – maybe two, and then be completely forgotten, if not discarded, the same way Bush and the Right discarded him once he was no longer a useful tool for The Cause.
As always, it depends upon who we are talking about. Straight-up liberals and conservatives won't be swayed either way; not just because their opinions are set about McCain and Obama, but because they don't need any persuasion anymore from a Colin-Powell. However, if there are a fair number of independents who still trust Colin-Powell's opinion, it could turn a 55% edge among independents to a 65%. And that would be a checkmate. I just don't know if those people still exist in large numbers.
I would like to point out that in that first link, the picture of Powell breakin' it down old school on stage at “Africa Rising” is awesome. I think Condoleeza Rice just got straight up SERVED.
While I like everyone else admire Powell, I think its interesting that we do seem to trust him so much, especially after his infamous UN speech. He also testified for Stevens- saying the Alaska Senator's word is “sterling”.
But, doggone it, you just instinctively trust the guy!