Comments on: CBS News/New York Times Poll: Obama Takes 14 Point Lead Over McCain

By: kritt11

kritt11 — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 19:06:56 +0000

DLS- I found Huckabee charming and quite funny— and never offensive. He was so likeable that I had to remind myself constantly that he didn't believe in evolution and might blur the lines of church and state.

. Palin, OTOH, is just mean-spirited, uneducated and dishonest. Yes, she's a pit bull — all right – but she is turning off all but right wing voters.

By: DLS

DLS — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:01:35 +0000

Rather than breathlessly obscess about the latest poll of the day, hour, or minute, it is better to pay attention to something like the following, which describes the public view of the current economic situation, and which serves to assist those of us who have already dispelled the idiotic hype and sensationalism about the economy.

"[T]here is little indication that the nation’s financial crisis has triggered public panic or despair. [...] Americans are more confident than they were in July about an improvement in the national economy and in their own personal finances."

"[T]he public’s personal financial ratings are no lower than they were in mid-summer. [...] no evidence that fundamental American optimism has eroded in the face of the financial crisis."

but,

"Americans clearly signal they intend to scale back their own spending."

http://people-press.org/report/458/economic-crisis

By: DLS

DLS — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 14:52:22 +0000

I cannot believe the hype about Palin. Not here, not anywhere. She was this year's campaign celebrity (temporarily exceeding Obama's level). After the convention the interest in her among most people has subsided. If anything, she is similar to Mike Huckabee, quite likeable and attractive but in over her head for the Vice Presidency as well as the Presidency. (That concern was expressed over Palin becoming President but not Huckabee exposes some of the ugly nature of the anti-Palin effort.)

By: kritt11

kritt11 — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 14:10:17 +0000

The thing is, I'm not sure why Palin's denying what's in the report. It seems remarkably naive and shortsighted as anyone with a PC or a newspaper subscription can find out that she's lying. Add that to the lies she told about the Bridge to Nowhere and you get George W Bush in a skirt and high heels.

To do that when we already have an administration that has no credibilty and historic low approval ratings is moronic.
I get that she's not that well-informed on foreign affairs, health care or the economy, but her strength is supposed to be in running a savvy campaign.?????? It just makes me doubt a lot of other things she's said.

By: Buck Naked Politics

Buck Naked Politics — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:00:53 +0000

Obama Momentum Continues to Build; Polled Voters Don’t Like McCain’s Negativity or Sarah Palin

by Damozel | Apparently independents are far more moderate than McCain—who was elected by his own party’s moderates—seems to have bargained for. While I don’t have too much faith in polls, Obama’s clearly been pulling ahead during the last coupl…

By: Terr’ist-Loving Likely Voters Push Barack “Barry O-Bomber” To 14-Point Lead Over Our Panamanian “War Hero” | THE GUN TOTING LIBERAL™

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 07:39:47 +0000

[...] o-pine: Stop The ACLU (Right); Obsidian Wings; Hot Air (Right); Joe Gandelman of The Moderate Voice (Center-Left); American Street has produced a “most-likely” election scenario map, and [...]

By: Qohelet

Qohelet — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 06:13:12 +0000

Up until last week or so, I might have agreed with prediction #2. Now, however, given that her Orwellian response to the Troopergate findings takes the Alice-in-Wonderland-Looking-Glass cake (see http://palinhasproblems.blogspot.com/ and others), I would say no and add that she will be lucky to salvage her political career in Alaska. Her obvious, unnecessary and self-defeating falsehood is clearly pathological. It is abnormal even for a politician. Nixon would not have wasted his time with this sort of thing. Moreover, I do not recall him ever inciting violence, fear and hatred against a presidential candidate the way she has (as demonstrated by the fact that her speeches riled people up enough to suggest a Presidential candidate be assassinated and tacit condoning of such by her silence). I cannot imagine Nixon endangering civil order so recklessly as she has, not even with all his dirty tricks and outrageous anti-Semitic comments. Surely, the GOP will purge her from their ranks as soon as they possibly can. At least Nixon can be credited with the good work he did in China and the USSR. Palin probably does not even know what he did in either country, but she at least she can claim to be Russia's next door neighbor.

By: T_Steel

T_Steel — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 02:44:08 +0000

I'm taking all polls with the proverbial grain of salt…

By: JSpencer

JSpencer — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 02:35:15 +0000

The Obama campaign will need to keep the pedal to the metal all the way to the end and would be wise to forget about that supposed cushion. Call me superstitious..

By: elrod

elrod — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 02:28:18 +0000

Always be wary of individual polls. Some skew Democratic and others skew Republican. Look at the averages: either Real Clear Politics, Pollster or 538. RCP is the most conservative of the poll average sites so it's worthwhile to use it as a baseline. Right now RCP has Obama up 8.1%. See here.

Pollster's average is 8.5% for Obama, though I don't know if the CBS poll is included yet. See here.

By: JSpencer

JSpencer — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 02:07:10 +0000

“No matter what, Palin is a future GOP star”

Let's hope the bulk of her supporters wake up as if from a bad night of drunkeness and swear off politics forever, since the standards they embrace for it are so incredibly low.

By: mlhradio

mlhradio — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 01:49:02 +0000

FiveThirtyEight notes that this poll (14 points) might be an outlier, but now there are *several* national polls that put Obama at a 10-point-plus lead, which would be more “outliers” than can easily be explained.

Frankly, I cannot imagine Obama's polling numbers improving beyond this 14-point advantage – that's almost “fat lady sings” territory this late in the game. After this point, I expect the polls have nowhere else to go but some tightening (perhaps settlling in the 6-8 point advantage range). Whic, as far as I'm concerned, is a *good* thing. A huge Obama lead would mean complacency among the Obama army of supporters. A tighter race means the Obama supporters keep fighting hard for every vote right up to election day.

By: Apt604

Apt604 — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 01:45:32 +0000

The new Richard Nixon?? I don't see it. Palin may be as dishonest and divisive as Nixon was at his worst, but lacks his brilliance. And she clearly doesn't have Reagan's charm, outside of the base . . . and even in the base, there seem to be growing doubts.

I think “the new Patrick McHenry” is more like it.