ABC/Washington Post Poll: Obama Opens 10 Point Lead As Bush’s Approval Rating Falls Below Nixon’s
The seeming tsunami of polls showing Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama widen his lead over Republican Sen. John McCain while President George Bush’s approval ratings goes lower than Richard Nixon’s continues with this new ABC News poll:
A tornado of economic discontent is buffeting the nation, sending satisfaction with the country’s direction to a 35-year low, George W. Bush’s approval rating below Richard Nixon’s worst – and Barack Obama, boosted by economic empathy, to his best-yet advantage in the presidential race.
Given the global economic crisis, a record 90 percent of registered voters say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, the most since this question first was asked in 1973. At 23 percent, Bush’s job approval rating has fallen below Nixon’s lowest; it’s a point away from the lowest in 70 years of polling, set by Harry Truman in early 1952. Bush’s disapproval, meanwhile, is at an all-time record – 73 percent.
This means that, more than ever before, McCain is going to have to separate himself from Bush, perhaps even become highly-critical of him, if he wants to have a real shot at the White House. The combination of Bush’s low rating plus the wrong track poll mean many voters could be inclined to vote via the Big Broom approach in politics — sweep the whole crew out.
Powered chiefly by the public’s economic concerns, Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.
Still, Obama’s lead depends upon a shift in basic partisanship that will need to stand the test of turnout come Nov. 4. And while movable voters – those who haven’t definitely made up their minds – have inched down to 13 percent, that’s still more than enough to change the shape of the race.
In other words: all of the conventional wisdom you read from pundits and on weblogs (such as this one), and all of the self-assured pundits you see on TV could still be proven wrong. But the odds are against it.
The bottom line: the trending is not good for McCain. Given how volatile this race has been, McCain could still rebound — but it’s hard to see how he could rebound enough.
Some other polling updates:
–Obama is gaining in Florida and in Iowa.
–Obama has double digit lead on Long Island.
–Obama and Nevada are almost even in Nevada.
–Obama leads by 10 points in Colorado.
7 Responses to “ABC/Washington Post Poll: Obama Opens 10 Point Lead As Bush’s Approval Rating Falls Below Nixon’s”
[...] The Moderate Voice: Powered chiefly by the public’s economic concerns, Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936. [...]
It ain't over till the fat lady sings. And even on election day we might be left wondering since there are a huge number of absentee ballots that need to be counted….
Gandelman keep pushing idiosyncratic polls showing Obama with an outsize lead, while ignoring the larger number of polls showing the race tightening.
There are 6 daily national tracking polls:
1) Gallup
2) Rasmussen
3) Zogby
4) Hotline
5) Daily Kos
6) Battleground
I'll ignore the last 2 because:
a) The Kos poll is unreliable (unless you think Obama is +13), and,
b) Battleground's last day of reported polling is 10/9, thus not reflective of the most recent trend.
Now lets look at the rest, and below I'm referencing the most recent available polls:
1) On 10/11, Gallup has Obama at +7, which is down a full 4 points from Obama's peak of +11 from 4 days ago. So, per Gallup, McCain has gained 1 point per day from 10/8 -10/11.
And that's among Registered Voters. Among likely voters, Gallup on 10/11 has Obaba +6 or +4, according to 2 alternate methodologies.
2) On 10/12 (as reported by Drudge) Rasmussen has Obama +5, which is a loss of one point from Obama's 10/11 position of +6, and a loss of 3 points from Obama's peak of +8 on 10/6 and 10/7.
3) Zogby on 10/12 has Obama +4, down 2 from Obama's peak of +6 on 10/11
4) Hotline on 10/11 has Obama +8, down 2 from Obama's peak of +10 on 10/10.
Now, anyone of these poll individually would be tenuous evidence of trend for McCain. But all of them moving in the same direction is solid evidence a McCain uptick.
And now for the Newsweek poll Gandelman blogs about. Read this, taken from the article ABC article linked by Gandelman:
“This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 8-11, 2008, among a random sample of 1,101 adults…Results among all adults and the 945 registered voters…”
First, notice that the 3/4 of the poll was taken last Wednesday through Friday, which is the period in which the tracking polls surveyed above show Obama at his peak. Only 1/4 of the polling took place on Saturday, but the tracking polls above show that McCain halted his bleeding and began his uptick on Saturday and Sunday.
Second, notice that the ABC poll isn't of Likely Voters. It isn't even exclusively of Registered Voters, who comprise only about 86% of the sample. The sample consists, apparently, of those over 18 who do not hang up on ABC. This is dodgy stuff, particularly in a sample that isn't too large to begin with.
The most recent trend – and I admit, it's a fragile one, by no means a surge – is toward McCain, but you wouldn't know that from reading Gandelman's cherry-picked polls.
The one question for this election is whether the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate. Juding by polling data at realclearpolitic.com, it looks like the Democrats will have more than 60 seats and the Republicans will be irrelevant at the national level.
The next question is whether the media will consider the Repulbican Party relevant in 2016 when the presidential election will be open. My guess is that by then, the Republican Party will hold less than 1/3 of the elected seats in the U.S. and the media will fill comfortable ignoring the Republican Primary. In 2016, the most likely scenerio is that Obama successor will be choosen by the caucus attendees in Iowa and the voters in New Hampshire and that the U.S. will face the longest transition period ever.
The fat lady isn't singing, but she's on the stage!
I'm listening to NPR right now as they interview Steve Schmidt about these numbers. His strength is amazing. It has to be to shovel all this BS. He feels that “we are just where we want to be”. Huh? He is right when he says they are disadvantaged because of the R next to their name but he's full of it when he tries to say that McCain is his own man. It's been years since that might have been true.
JS- We'll see what he has to say on Nov 5th– if McCain loses!
I can hear it now– we knew all the time it would be an uphill battle. That's why we had to pull out all the stops. Total BS