Comments on: Gallup Daily: Obama Leads By 7 Percent As McCain Narrows Gap

By: daveinboca

daveinboca — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:26:04 +0000

Yeah, Ron, keep talking to yourself. Gore was ahead by 11 points three and a half weeks before the election in 2000. The economic news is diminishing in bad news intensity. Rudi neglects Zogby, hardly an outlier with C/Span & Reuters participating having them only two points apart.

But keep talking to yourself, if that helps your jitters.

By: Ron Beasley

Ron Beasley — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:22:52 +0000

I don't see a lot of volatility but you shouldn't be looking at the national polls anyway. It's the electoral votes that count and there is not any way that McCain can turn that around with the state polls still treding up in Obama's direction.
Another indicator is how many republicans are already discussing why McCain lost.

By: Rudi

Rudi — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 03:24:28 +0000

Note the volatility of these polls.
What volatility are we talking about? The poll shows Obama around 50% and McCain in the low 40% for over a month. If the poll was really “volatile” the leads would change by 5 to 10% and McCain would lead one day or two with Obama swinging back into the lead. The poll isn't really volatile and doesn't exhibit any serious noise.

By: Elyas

Elyas — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 23:25:35 +0000

To get a much better idea of the trends, I recommend pollster's national trend-line chart. It essentially averages out every national poll conducted, including Gallup, so it's much more accurate than looking at a single poll in isolation.

By: Gichin13

Gichin13 — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 23:16:34 +0000

not a poll junky here, but I have read that Obama's advantage in younger voting is so heavy that is has consistently lost 1-2 points for polling over the weekend — presumably becuase such voters were less apt to be around and thus be polled on Friday and Saturday.

I would think that Gallup would correct by age group though so no idea whether this was an accurate statement … but it does look correct over the last couple weeks as it waxes and wanes