An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents, with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, and right

« Web Kidz Don’t Stop Believing (afterward)

Let’s Talk About Bill Ayers for a Moment »

Gallup Daily: Obama Leads By 7 Percent As McCain Narrows Gap

Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics.
Oct 12th, 2008 | Comments

In a weekend of largely bad polling news, Republican Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has now gotten some good news from Gallup: there are signs now that the race may be tightening as Democratic Sen. Barack Obama’s lead over McCain is down three points, to 7 percent:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report finds registered voters preferring Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.

These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama’s lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days’ polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.

Obama has generally held an advantage over McCain since mid-September, when the imminent failure of several large financial institutions made the economy an even bigger concern than it had previously been.

Note the volatility of these polls. As noted in our earlier polls, the trending is now heavily against McCain. But that could change: three weeks is a lifetime in politics. Two factors that suggest it might not change unless there is some big political gaffe or unforeseen event: most polls suggest moderate and independent voters are now breaking towards Obama. And then there is the financial news which continues to hurt McCain.

Ads by Project Wonderful! Your ad here, right now: $0

Gichin13

not a poll junky here, but I have read that Obama's advantage in younger voting is so heavy that is has consistently lost 1-2 points for polling over the weekend -- presumably becuase such voters were less apt to be around and thus be polled on Friday and Saturday.

I would think that Gallup would correct by age group though so no idea whether this was an accurate statement ... but it does look correct over the last couple weeks as it waxes and wanes

Elyas

To get a much better idea of the trends, I recommend pollster's national trend-line chart. It essentially averages out every national poll conducted, including Gallup, so it's much more accurate than looking at a single poll in isolation.

Rudi

Note the volatility of these polls.
What volatility are we talking about? The poll shows Obama around 50% and McCain in the low 40% for over a month. If the poll was really "volatile" the leads would change by 5 to 10% and McCain would lead one day or two with Obama swinging back into the lead. The poll isn't really volatile and doesn't exhibit any serious noise.

Ron Beasley

I don't see a lot of volatility but you shouldn't be looking at the national polls anyway. It's the electoral votes that count and there is not any way that McCain can turn that around with the state polls still treding up in Obama's direction.
Another indicator is how many republicans are already discussing why McCain lost.

daveinboca

Yeah, Ron, keep talking to yourself. Gore was ahead by 11 points three and a half weeks before the election in 2000. The economic news is diminishing in bad news intensity. Rudi neglects Zogby, hardly an outlier with C/Span & Reuters participating having them only two points apart.

But keep talking to yourself, if that helps your jitters.

blog comments powered by Disqus