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McCain-Palin: What the Future Holds

Posted by JAZZ SHAW, Assistant Editor in Politics.
Oct 12th, 2008 | Comments

Count me as still among those who feel that 23 days is still a lifetime in politics, and it’s far too early to begin dancing on the political graves of John McCain and Sarah Palin. But, with that said, the outlook is growing fairly bleak. Assuming that the “conventional wisdom” turns out to be correct for a change and the Obama-Biden ticket carries the day on November 4, what does the future hold for the two candidates on the GOP side? My old partner Ron Beasley takes a look at this question over at Newshoggers.

So what does it all mean? That’s easy - they both know they are going to lose. As a result they have different goals. The 72 year old McCain is looking at how history will see him - his legacy. The governor from Alaska is looking for a career as a red meat baiter on FOX - look out Hannity and O’Reilly, the “cuda” has her eye on your job.

It’s an interesting perspective. McCain may be looking a bit rough around the edges after two straight years on the campaign trail, but he doesn’t necessarily need to head to the barn on November 5th. Even in the midst of this rough and tumble campaign, there are no signs that his popularity is sagging in Arizona and, providing his health remains good, there’s no reason he couldn’t continue on to be one of the senior members of the upper chamber for years to come.

Peering into Palin’s future may be a tougher nut to crack. I’m not sure how serious Ron was being about a spot on Fox News, but the Governor will still have a couple of years left to serve out in her first term in Alaska. Back home, she’s taken a hit in her previously stellar popularity numbers and the glaring spotlight of national attention has brought up a number of questions about her behavior in office. These include not only Troopergate, but lingering questions on the Mat-Maid dairy, questionable choices in governmental appointees, cronyism and a Wasilla Sports Complex that’s turned into a boondoggle. Also, if she’s no longer shooting for the VP’s office, will her newfound embrace of fiscal conservatism and rejection of earmarking continue, or will she revert back to her old habits of record setting per capita pork consumption? Much of that will determine how long her shelf life might extend in national politics.

Fox News? Hrmmm… you never know.

CStanley

Nah, I don't see that at all. Palin's still enormously popular with the base and even those who thought it was a terrible pick for this election still seem to feel that she's part of the future of the GOP (there's a lot of talk, for instance, of worry that by putting her on the national scene now, she might be tainted or tarnished for future runs- which I think is a legitimate concern.)

I think in the likely event that they lose, she'll return to AK and try to recover from Troopergate by ratcheting up the reform agenda even more and polishing her cred on energy policy, then wait until she can make a comeback on the national scene.

Jazz

Another factor I didn't discuss is the modern era assumption that our political parties do not tolerate a loser very well, no matter the perceived fault or circumstances of the loss. In the 1800s and the first half of the 20th century, it was not at all uncommon for people to run for President or VP four or even five times, sometimes coming back strong toward the end of their careers and winning. That changed in the last fifty years and the parties seem to feel that anyone who fails once is then damaged goods.

For example, Al Gore (no matter how much the Right may loathe the name) is still incredibly popular on the Left. And in 2000 he actually took the largest share of the popular vote. But he was still "a loser" and nobody has seriously considered nominating him again. Other examples abound on both sides of the aisle.

If Palin winds up on the losing end of this race, no matter how popular she may be with the Right wing base, I don't expect to see her back at the dance. She would just be too much of a reminder of 2008 for the GOP. In four years time there will be a whole new crop of exciting up and comers. Look for somebody like Bobby Jindal to run against Obama if the Dems take the White House, and he wouldn't be looking to Palin as a second banana. If it is a new face like Jindal, I think you'll see a seasoned, old hand in the mold of Cheney filling out the ticket. And the good news is that I've got a solid three years to pretend I know what I'm talking about before they prove me wrong.

CStanley

Yes, good points, Jazz, but at this point I don't think that Palin will be held responsible for McCain's loss. And how a loss by the two of them will play out remains to be seen- if my gut feeling that Democratic rule by Pelosi/Reid/Obama for the next few years will worsen our situation instead of better it, look for a lot of anger to return and cause more people to take a second look at Palin I think (McCain will in fact be finished due to age.)

If Obama wins and things improve though, then yeah, this will be too painful of a memory for the GOP- though Palin is still young enough to possibly make a comeback later.

Agree about Jindal though, and there are a LOT of other young GOPers who show promise. I think we'll be in good shape whenever the public decides that the GOP timeout is over.

Michael Merritt

I'm glad I'm not the only one not yet ready to mourn the death of the McCain campaign.

kritt11

"I think in the likely event that they lose, she'll return to AK and try to recover from Troopergate by ratcheting up the reform agenda even more and polishing her cred on energy policy, then wait until she can make a comeback on the national scene."

Maybe in the interim she can study up on recent Supreme Court decisions, and figure out which publications she reads!:)

kritt11

Honestly, my biggest beef with McCain has been his half-baked choice of Palin, and the haphazard way he has run his campaign. Its hard to even recognize the guy from 2000-- he just seems old and defeated.

casualobserver

Should McCain lose, he automatically becomes captain of the defense in the Senate and I think it a role he would be more adept at than campaigning. If HRC still has any WH ambition left, they could well become allies, albeit behind the scenes. Once we see whether the Barackstar has any stuff inside his suit or not, the 2012 campaign could start incredibly early.

Way too early on Palin. She was 80% approval before the lefty carpetbaggers discovered the State of Alaska, so it will be interesting to see what happens when they return to the lower East Side and LA (lower Arlington, Va.) I also need to hear her in her natural dialect instead of repeating scripted campaign material.

jeff_pickens

I deeply respect McCain's attempt to rein-in the limbic-generated rage and misinformation and mob-mentality among his base, but just scanning comments in blogs and public political forums doesn't particularly reassure me that there is some agenda to "come together" as an American public, to put "Country First." In fact, I read quite the opposite, to the point of physical threats (such as comments found on the Amazon.com politics discussion threads and elsewhere.)

Jazz even as I respect and miss the "old" McCain who was unafraid to confront a bad idea as being a bad idea, I directly hold him responsible for putting Palin on the ticket-- a woman who, as Sam Harris describes, might just stumble into the presidency as easily as she stumbled into small-town politics in Alaska, without any of the American public getting to "vet" her with any scrutiny (without it, of course, being referred to as "liberal media" harrassment.) According to many in Alaska, she has been just as unavailable to scrutiny there as she's showing to the national press.

I agree with others that it was the single most disqualifying descision he's made in regard to putting "Country First." In my estimation such a decision makes George Bush look tame.

Ron Beasley

Keep in mind that Palin's popularity in Alaska was almost entirely the result of the $3,000 she gave every man woman and child. Can she keep bribing them forever?

GeorgeSorwell

My guess is Palin has effectively destroyed her chances for national office. Unless McCain wins, of course. In that case, she'll assume national office in a few short months. And the good news is that I've got a solid three weeks to pretend I know what I'm talking about before they prove me wrong.

And I think you're kidding yourselves about Jindal. The GOP's own Hussein-mongering will have this consequence: The base won't go for a guy whose real first name is Piyush.

Come on.

kritt11

Well, she's a good campaigner- maybe she can head the RNC. I still can't believe a man as smart as McCain would make such a risky choice. He should be aware that Americans are looking at the VP role a lot differently after 8 years of the stealthy powermonger Dick Cheney. It is no longer a position that "isn't worth a mouthful of warm spit", but one in which the Veep can serve as an unaccounted -for behind the scenes operative.

Polimom

You may very well be right that Cheney's time as VP is impacting how people view Palin. I'm not seeing the same level of scrutiny on Joe Biden, though. Thus I keep circling back, mentally, to McCain's age. Would so much concern have been raised about Sarah Palin had McCain been 10 (or more) years younger?

CStanley

Ron: Gee, I don't know how effective those voter bribes are and for how long it can last. I guess we'll find out if Obama gets elected and gives out those "tax cut" checks to the forty-something percent of the population that doesn't pay any income tax to begin with.

CStanley

Kim, so in other words your primary complaint with McCain is that you buy the MSM narrative completely. Have you spent any time at all balancing the information you receive? At the very least, I think everyone who initially thought McCain was a good and decent candidate ought to be balancing out the negative MSM press by reading sources like Ed Morrissey- a rational conservative opinonator who doesn't engage in hyperspin but obviously attempts to provide a viewpoint that counters the hyperspin from the left.

Jim_Satterfield

Oh, please. Morrissey is as partisan as they come nowadays. Your biases are showing, CS. If Morrissey was what you claim he is he wouldn't be on Hot Air with Malkin, he would have kept Captain's Quarters going. And do you realize how old and decrepit that MSM-is-the-source-of-all-lies meme is to actual moderates and independents? It's McCain's own ads and lies that have destroyed his credibility, not the MSM.

kritt11

CS- The press didn't make up the kind of angry outbursts from McCain/Palin fans that we could hear at their rallies. And even conservatives are talking about how he botched his VP pick and mismanaged his campaign. He would have had to do a sterling job in this kind of economy, but the fact is, he didn't.

kritt11

And if Jim is correct and Morrissey is associating with Malkin, then I doubt he's a credible source.

timr

There's a rumor goin round in the CA rep party, high level people say that McCain is about to dump Palin(whether she resigns because of family problems or is fired the report is unsure) by, on or just after the next debate-or during the debate which would really shake things up-and put Romney in her place. Because Romney is a businessman and knows something about how an economy actually works-something that is very obviously lacking in McCain. The high level republicians in CA who leaked this are very sure that this is actually under discussion by McCain. Palin does not of course have any place in these discussions. If she is dumped then she will likely find out when she next looks at all of the papers that she reads daily.

Jazz

Everyone has to form their own opinions, of course, but Ed Morrissey really hasn't changed noticeably from his days at CQ. I speak to him on the phone regularly and he's the same old, level headed guy. He came on or radio show not all that long ago and noted that he personally felt that both McCain and Obama were good men and he wasn't fearful of the country going up in flames under Obama, would sleep just fine at night, etc. Yes, at Hot Air he focuses almost exclusively on the pro-McCain, defeat Obama material, but let's face it: He makes no bones about his support of the GOP and his team is down a couple of scores in the fourth quarter. Like most bloggers who have a horse in this race, he does what he can to help his side win.

Me? I have no delusions that Bob Barr will miraculously win, so I feel free to throw stones at both sides. :-)

Jazz

For Kritt... in terms of "associating" with Malkin (who I really dislike, and Ed knows that) they are friends to some degree, but it's a paying job that he accepted at a time when it made good financial and career sense for him. He took it only with the provision that Michelle has no editorial control over what he writes there, which stories he covers, etc. Michelle has her own media concerns to manage and leaves Ed and AP to fly Hot Air solo.

kritt11

Well, I prefer to get my information from bloggers like Joe G. Truly, at this point I have made up my mind, but it is interesting to get the perspectives of others. I think I mostly understand what a President McCain would be like-- and while his viewpoints differ with mine on some issues, at least I feel he's intellectually curious and has a conscience.

What I don't like is how he's allowed the right wing to manipulate the campaign and veto his choice of Joe Lieberman for VP.

Instead, we end up with this Alaskan wing ding who knows less about foreign affairs than most people who comment here. Considering his age and history of cancer, its turned out to be a disasterous decision for him and his presidential hopes. I don't think any of us want to imagine what Palin would be like as the accidental leader of the free world at a time when we have such a perfect storm of problems.

Polimom

Jazz -- I realize that this post wasn't intended to devolve into a discussion about Ed, but I really do miss his writing at the CQ. I've noticed a more decided bias in his writing since he moved -- a real disappointment, since I read (and linked) him frequently before the change.

kritt11

Thanks for the info, Jazz. I have to admit she's almost as big of a red flag for me as Ann Coulter!

I think that I have gone to CQ in the past, and at least wasn't turned off by the obvious bias and distortion that I have found at other right wing sites. But, I do think McCain botched his campaign by picking Palin and not having a strong.coherent, positive message. Its obvious that he's floundering from one tactic to the next- hoping something will stick.

Jazz

Actually, while this post wasn't a discussion about Ed in any way, it comes on a good day. For those of you who may feel that Ed is writing a Right Wingnut echo chamber aimed at destroying Obama at any or all costs and supporting everything to do with McCain's chances, take a look at his column from this morning.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/12/obama-is-...

Then take a moment to read the pages of comments streaming in where his own readers try to set fire to him for not agreeing to go out on a limb with some conspiracy theory stuff about Obama. Yes, Ed is a friend of mine so I might feel more tempted to defend him than others, (not that Ed needs any defending) but if you look at that post and others like it that he does, you'll see hes still a pretty level headed guy. He just happens to personally be a conservative Republican and he's not ashamed of it.

casualobserver

Perhaps not entirely OT either.........if this is the nadir of the Republican Party and the conservative philosophy appeal in this country, then what will the lefties do with the 45% of the population STILL saying they are going to vote for McCain/Palin?

The eight points M/P lost in the past few weeks was not conservatives all of a sudden flocking to obama, nor was it liberals giving them an illusory temporary bounce.

It can only have been unaffiliated voters.......who are now waiting impatiently for an economic turnaround. I can conjur only three possibilities......the market turns around soon and makes this a horse race again; it stays depressed post November and obama has it nailed by April; or three, it stays depressed and obama doesn't have it nailed by April. 2 out of the 3 are not likely to warrant the celebration on the left. The congressional races will be before us before you know it.

StockBoySF

GeorgeSorwell: I think if Obama is president then in a few years the Republican base will support a guy whose real first name is Piyush.... And unlike the GOP and their goons on the right, the Democrats won't use Piyush's name against him. First, the Dems are a party which attracts all sorts of people from many backgrounds. Second, if the Dems were inclined to such childish behavior then there would be more out there tying "John Sidney McCain, III" to being out of touch with the average American with his multiple houses and pedigreed family.

But you know, George, you could very well be right on that.... it seems that the GOP base is often caught up in superficial things (such as names) rather than substance. I'm still amazed at how they threw their weight behind Palin, for one of the most powerful positions on the planet when they did not know anything about her.

StockBoySF

Getting back to the topic at hand- the future of McCain and Palin if they lose....

McCain does have the chance to work across the aisle but I don't think he will. He's a grumpy old man and I have the feeling that "reaching bipartisan agreements" for McCain is much like reaching "bipartisan agreements" with Bush... negotiation done more through the use of a battering ram (as much is done in Congress and the WH today) than through a respectful and more collegial back and forth.

As far as Palin... my first thoughts are similar to CStanley... Palin will need to hone her skills and get some good experience under her belt. However it depends on how much of a liability Palin thinks her association with the AIP will be. Being scrutinized in a national spotlight has given Palin a taste of what it will be like to run for president.... she may feel that the AIP will drag her down.

There are other reasons for me not to like Palin, ever, but the absolute deal breaker for me and why I will never support Palin is her involvement with the AIP. I've commented before that if she were a member of the AIP in college or youth, I would be willing to forgive that. But she's a string supporter of the AIP as a governor of her state. I know she's not a member, but when she speaks at their convention and tells them they are doing a good job, she's let her true colors show. If she's going to be president she should in no way be associated with a party that believes in breaking up the US. Quite frankly if she wants to take that position as governor of Alaska, I don't hold that against her and more power to her. But to hold those views and be president is something else.

kritt11

Hmmm Piyush-- now a name like that can't possibly belong to a real American. Maybe we ought to start a rumor about his birth certificate! :)

No offense but what about the redneck vote?

Jim_Satterfield

That's weird. I wrote a post saying good for Morrissey for showing some class in that post and it hasn't shown up.

kritt11

"There are other reasons for me not to like Palin, ever, but the absolute deal breaker for me and why I will never support Palin is her involvement with the AIP. I've commented before that if she were a member of the AIP in college or youth, I would be willing to forgive that. But she's a string supporter of the AIP as a governor of her state. I know she's not a member, but when she speaks at their convention and tells them they are doing a good job, she's let her true colors show. If she's going to be president she should in no way be associated with a party that believes in breaking up the US. Quite frankly if she wants to take that position as governor of Alaska, I don't hold that against her and more power to her. But to hold those views and be president is something else"

For me it is her shocking ignorance and her unchristian behavior at recent rallies.We also have no way of knowing if we'd get another president who shoots from the hip and doesn't ask questions later. I also fear that she would take sex ed and evolution out of schools and institute abstinence only and Creationism. Well, I guess there are a lot of reasons-- she fought to keep the polar bear from being named an endangered species and lied about the infamous bridge. She's not sure if global warming is manmade and thinks the cause makes no difference-- yet McCain considers her an "energy expert". She told an audience that the Alaska pipeline was God's will.

She was an atrocious pick, and any attempt to pick up disgruntled Clinton voters is backfiring badly, as Obama has shown big gains in the female vote.

kritt11

I read a story today that detailed how Todd Palin was sitting in on Cabinet mtgs, and was present in the Governor's office about half the time. He set up meetings as though he were a state employee and used state powers (which is where the abuse of power charges came from). The man has not even attended college- and he was a member of AIP.

Palin's attempt to have the AG quash subpoenas for the probe has a bad smell to it-- as do the lies she told about Monegan's firing. Unable, to take the political heat, she blamed partisanship for the investigation's findings. That's a lot of material for an opponent to use against her--- so I think she'll go in the deep freeze for a while if they lose.

StockBoySF

I got side-tracked in my comment about Palin's career....

I can see how Palin might run for prez in 2012 unless the AIP thing disqualifies her. But I think she would do much better on talk radio where she can rant. Those folks have power and are well paid. Her background is journalism and as an ex-governor (whenever that happens) known on the national stage she would be in demand. Maybe she can be Rush Limbaugh's or Hannity's successor when one of them finally keels over after a self-induced heart-attack or stroke on the air.

Jim_Satterfield

BTW, Palin's approval in Alaska had already dropped from that 80% to 65% just before the VP pick according to what I've read.

kritt11

With her looks, she could host an opinion show on FNC.

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