How John McCain Could Still Win This Thing

I’ll preface this post by saying that the most conservative parts of the GOP base will not agree with it… nor will they see any reason McCain should care about the votes of people like me. I’m not a Republican, and I see that party as corrupted and twisted beyond all recognition these days. They’ve fully earned their time in the wilderness, and I know many (former) Republicans who won’t vote for them this year under any circumstances.

Furthermore, the tactics McCain and Palin have been employing are reprehensible. Taking advantage of bigotry or xenophobia is the tool of a schoolyard bully, not an aspiring class president.

Having said all that, the questions being raised about Barack Obama are not universally spawned of primal fear or ignorance. In the context of current economic conditions and rising populism, there are real concerns about what an Obama presidency might look like.

There have been a couple of points in American history when populism has combined with economic and/or social crises to alter the trajectory of our government. One is known to us today as The Progressive Era, another led to The New Deal… and the ramifications of both are with us today.

John McCain, however, has not proven himself able to articulate these questions clearly — and even if he could, it’s unlikely that he could attract anyone new beyond economists and libertarians. Why?

Because for many independents and moderates, his ticket is fatally-flawed, and the problem is Sarah Palin.

It’s not just that she’s inexperienced or uninformed about national issues; it’s that the very qualities that make her attractive to the extreme social conservatives appall much of the country. When one factors in John McCain’s age (as one must), the McCain-Palin ticket is an impossible conundrum. Even if moderates were inclined to vote for McCain, the very real risk that Palin could become president would stay their hands.

But what if Sarah Palin were no longer on the ticket?

The base would be very very angry, yes. But would that keep them from voting for McCain? In light of the heat that’s been generated against Obama recently, I don’t think it would.

They’re very clearly “rallied” already, and it’s not Sarah they’re focused on.

John McCain has roughly three weeks to turn his campaign around. If he can clearly articulate concerns about one-party government and the combination of over-extended federal involvement in over-reaching social policies, and find a more widely-appealing running-mate (preferably one with some gravitas this time), I think he’d have a real chance at the presidency.

He has to do both, and even then it would be a long shot… but otherwise, I think this thing is pretty much over.