An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents, with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, and right

Of Tempers and Temperament

With John McCain tanking, I have sometimes wondered why on earth am I still supporting him.

Giving it some thought, I come up with one answer: I know what I’m getting with the Arizona Senator. I don’t know what I’m getting with Barack Obama.

I know that I am getting a man that supports the environment and that tends to be more gay-friendly than past GOP nominees. I know that I am getting a man that has worked with Democrats and shunned his own party’s narrow interests to work for the national interest. I know that I am getting a grumpy and testy old man that deep down is a good and decent man.

I don’t know what I am getting in Obama. That’s not to say that he is a bad person, I just don’t know. He doesn’t have a long record. He has not done as much of the bipartisan work that McCain has done. In many ways, he feels like a blank slate.

If we were looking at résumés, then McCain probably has the stronger of the two. But we also tend to look at a lot of other things besides experience. The presidency is a mythic office. Unlike our British cousins who have a queen that represents all-that-is-the-UK and a Prime Minister that does the day-to-day grunt work, we Americans wrap both offices into one job. Obama has that mythic quality that befits the office. McCain doesn’t.

But myth alone doesn’t make one president, nor should it be what makes one choose who to vote for. There needs to be some “there” there to make that man or woman President, or else the myth then becomes a fantasy.

Christopher Buckley, the son of William F. Buckley has chosen to endorse Barack Obama. What is so odd is not his endorsement, but how he got there. This is how he describes John McCain.

I have known John McCain personally since 1982. I wrote a well-received speech for him. Earlier this year, I wrote in The New York Times—I’m beginning to sound like Paul Krugman, who cannot begin a column without saying, “As I warned the world in my last column…”—a highly favorable Op-Ed about McCain, taking Rush Limbaugh and the others in the Right Wing Sanhedrin to task for going after McCain for being insufficiently conservative. I don’t—still—doubt that McCain’s instincts remain fundamentally conservative. But the problem is otherwise.

McCain rose to power on his personality and biography. He was authentic. He spoke truth to power. He told the media they were “jerks” (a sure sign of authenticity, to say nothing of good taste; we are jerks). He was real. He was unconventional. He embraced former anti-war leaders. He brought resolution to the awful missing-POW business. He brought about normalization with Vietnam—his former torturers! Yes, he erred in accepting plane rides and vacations from Charles Keating, but then, having been cleared on technicalities, groveled in apology before the nation. He told me across a lunch table, “The Keating business was much worse than my five and a half years in Hanoi, because I at least walked away from that with my honor.” Your heart went out to the guy. I thought at the time, God, this guy should be president someday.

Then he explains that John McCain has changed:

But that was—sigh—then. John McCain has changed. He said, famously, apropos the Republican debacle post-1994, “We came to Washington to change it, and Washington changed us.” This campaign has changed John McCain. It has made him inauthentic. A once-first class temperament has become irascible and snarly; his positions change, and lack coherence; he makes unrealistic promises, such as balancing the federal budget “by the end of my first term.” Who, really, believes that? Then there was the self-dramatizing and feckless suspension of his campaign over the financial crisis. His ninth-inning attack ads are mean-spirited and pointless. And finally, not to belabor it, there was the Palin nomination. What on earth can he have been thinking?

Well, I agree with him on the Palin nomination, but aside from this, his reasoning seems rather odd. He spends a lot of time talking about the fine qualities of McCain over the last 26 years and then bases his decision on how John McCain has conducted his campaign over the last few months.

Yes, John McCain has thrown some elbows during this campaign (so has Obama), but is that what you should make a decision on: the topsy-turvy world of a campaign? What has happened in the last 6-8 months should not weigh as heavily as the last 30 years, but yet, Buckley does just that.

What’s even odder is why he is supporting Obama:

As for Senator Obama: He has exhibited throughout a “first-class temperament,” pace Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.’s famous comment about FDR. As for his intellect, well, he’s a Harvard man, though that’s sure as heck no guarantee of anything, these days. Vietnam was brought to you by Harvard and (one or two) Yale men. As for our current adventure in Mesopotamia, consider this lustrous alumni roster. Bush 43: Yale. Rumsfeld: Princeton. Paul Bremer: Yale and Harvard. What do they all have in common? Andover! The best and the brightest.

I’ve read Obama’s books, and they are first-rate. He is that rara avis, the politician who writes his own books. Imagine. He is also a lefty. I am not. I am a small-government conservative who clings tenaciously and old-fashionedly to the idea that one ought to have balanced budgets. On abortion, gay marriage, et al, I’m libertarian. I believe with my sage and epigrammatic friend P.J. O’Rourke that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take it all away.

Buckley says nothing about Obama’s positions or his record. It would be one thing if those were the reasons he was supporting the Illinois Senator, but it is a whole other thing to vote for a man because he has a fine temperament.

What does that have to do with our current economic crisis or Iraq, or global warming?

But it gets better:

But having a first-class temperament and a first-class intellect, President Obama will (I pray, secularly) surely understand that traditional left-politics aren’t going to get us out of this pit we’ve dug for ourselves. If he raises taxes and throws up tariff walls and opens the coffers of the DNC to bribe-money from the special interest groups against whom he has (somewhat disingenuously) railed during the campaign trail, then he will almost certainly reap a whirlwind that will make Katrina look like a balmy summer zephyr.

So, Buckley believes that because Obama is smart and has a good temperament, he won’t use the same-old lefty politics. On what basis does he make this judgment? There is very little evidence to back this up. It seems as if Buckley just has faith that Obama will run government in a bipartisan fashion.

Buckley sees a mythic character in Obama and fashions his hopes on this man. What Buckley doesn’t see is the man, and frankly, I don’t know what sort of man is he. Please note, I am not saying Obama is a good or bad man, I just don’t know who he is, because there is so little of a record about who this man truly is.

For me, I have to vote on what I know and not on vain hope. I know that McCain has worked in a bipartisan fashion and will continue to do so. It’s hard to support someone only on the hope that they won’t govern as a traditional liberal when their past proves that’s what they will probably do.

Some day a few years from now, I think Buckley and other Obamacons will find that Obama is not the man of their dreams. Hope is a good thing to have, but it should not be the only factor in choosing who gets to live in the White House.

  • pacatrue
    I think it depends a lot on whether you think the campaign McCain is McCain under pressure, and the Presidency is 4 straight years of pressure, or the campaign McCain is some aberrant version of him that will disappear once he wins the Election. I have no argument either way, just a gut guess.

    FYI, while McCain does indeed have a better record on the environment than many other Republicans, his energy plan is somewhat mixed. For instance, all his campaign ads show pictures of wind and solar power, but his actual platform says nothing other than that he will "rationalize" the tax plans for such energies. No one seems to know what that means and the McCain campaign has never spelled it out. My guess is that a McCain presidency might see some movement towards a carbon cap and some expanded nuclear and "clean" coal.
  • DaveA
    I guess the issues is the man I backed in 2000 has seemingly disappeared. And its not just during the campaign either, although that is part fo it.

    His record over the last few years is an abrupt change from his past and indeed has dovetailed with W's in quite a few areas. Most notably on torture, domestic spying, the Iraq war and to a lesser degree the obviously dangerous spend and don't tax policies.

    Then you have the campaign. It is very clear McCain is a gambler, from Palin to his bail out bungle. Basically we have a case of all all flash and no substance here. At least not for the big issues. Sure, I like his no earmarks. I like his plan for moving away from cost plus government contracts, and so on. But beyond that, when it comes to the big pictures issues of diplomacy and over all economy? Well he comes up looking dated, befuddled or absent without a well thought out plan behind some nice sounding words.

    Frankly we have had 8 years of a president who basically thought with his gut, rolled the dice, and did not plan. Is our country in the position where we can afford that for 4 more years? I think not.

    Compare that to Obama. Whom I admit is more of an unknown. But really, he out organized and out fought the Clinton machine. No small task. He also has kept control of his campaign, something I am not sure McCain is really up 100% on given the whole 'mob' issue / back down issue. And, he has shown the ability to reason though things, like his change in emphasis on ethanol (currently a bit of a boondoggle) to biodiesel (economically viable).

    It seems clear to me if we want a steady and thoughtful hand on the tiller, that Obama is much more "it" than McCain.
  • CStanley
    As usual, Dennis, you give some balance and sanity here.

    What's amazing is that everyone who thinks that McCain has fundamentally changed or abandoned the principles that they once admired, or who thinks he's 'erratic' is generally doing everything they say they despise themselves.

    Taking a gamble- because when I question moderates about why they believe Obama will govern from a moderate or centrist platform, there's no real answer except a leap of faith that his rhetoric represents his true beliefs more accurately than his past record does.

    Criticism of McCain's associations is hollow because of Obama's long history of close association with unsavory characters.

    Criticism of McCain for lack of vision is hollow because NEITHER candidate has expressed any real understanding of the current economic crisis or how to lead us out of it.

    Criticism of McCain for 'changing the subject' is hollow because regardless of whether or not this is McCain campaign's motivation, Obama's campaign leaps on the opportunity to continue discussion McCain's attacks rather than talking about substantive issues. Every one of Obama's advisors, and many of the bloggers here and elsewhere who support Obama, have spent the last week complaining about McCain and attempting to paint his negativity as a deflection from issues- but every time they do this I want to scream at the TV interviewer or at the blogger: OK...so what is it that Obama REALLY wants to say that he's being prevented from saying?? If McCain is distracting attention, OK, then ignore him and give us this profound wisdom about the serious issues that face us...what is stopping you? Of course the answer is nothing is stopping them...it's just politically more advantageous to keep the focus on McCain themselves because there really is no great message that they are trying to promulgate.

    Can anyone here tell me what it is that Obama proposes to do about the economy?

    Will he hold people in his own party accountable for the ways they've contributed to the problem?

    Sorry, but I am deeply concerned about the fog of judgment that appears to have fallen over people who normally would know better. I can only conclude that the emotional desire to 'punish' the GOP is overtaking any rational thought. Talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face- people are more concerned with punishing one party (however deserving that party may be), while ignoring the culpability of the other party and allowing them to begin an unfettered reign. Don't we ever learn?
  • casualobserver
    Dennis, the hope vs experience issue is making its way through the minds of a lot of middle-roaders.

    I might be copacetic to the likely ride on the hope train myself if I didn't have the nagging thought that the train will actually have its engineer and conductor in the personas of pelosi-reid.
  • mikkel
    CS, for argument's sake let's say you're right about all your points. Has it ever occurred to you that maybe the country as a whole is just rejecting "conservatism" (which in its present form has about as much to do with the philosophy as much as Stalinism did with Marxism)?

    We are by far the most "conservative" industrialized country when it comes to policies. In basically all of Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc. their mainstream conservative parties have policies that sound very much like an Obama or Clinton. When it comes to social programs or civil rights or health care, they are all very much on our "left." I've talked to a lot of Europeans that hate welfare and then when I describe what ours is they are like "oh ok that makes sense, over there it's the equivalent of about $25k-$30k a year, or as much or more than I was making (these people are all in science.)"

    Just like I believe people that liberalism had gotten severely out of hand right before Reagan -- although I have to admit the more I read about that time period the less it seems that Carter was super liberal and more that he was indecisive, but more importantly tried to tell people that they had to change their lifestyle -- i think that the American Conservatism Movement has right now.

    Is McCain going to do anything about that? You ask if Obama will hold his party accountable for the ways they've contributed and he should and it's up to honest people to try their hardest to make sure.....but the bulk of the problems right now are either systemic (in a way that even neutral experts have the wrong ideas) or a hallmark of crony conservatism. A lot of McCain's policy proscriptions are just awful, like private social security accounts or R&D tax deductions all at once instead of annualized or his mortgage plan that is the worst idea I've heard from a main candidate besides Hillary's freeze on foreclosures.

    Many of his ideas either don't address the problem even on a superficial level, or are based on faith in an ideological stance where even a cursory understanding of how things work shows that the promises are wrong (I'm going to lose it if people keep claiming private social security accounts will boost returns in the long run.....of course our entire retirement system with 401Ks, IRAs, etc. that are bought into by both parties now rely on that lie).

    In any case, from my perspective your primary complaint shouldn't be about punishing one party or the other -- especially since it's obvious that Republicans have failed -- it's that there is no party that actually represents pragmatic systemic change. First of all because it's hard to get people interested in that and secondly because it's about laying the groundwork over decades and it's hard to run on that.
  • considered
    This "who is Obama" meme lost its legs when Palin became the GOP pick. And punishing a party? That trivializes the situation. Getting rid of people who have consistently rewarded donors at the electorate's expense is much more than punishing a party.

    I don't see Obama as a new savior, and I don't turn a blind eye to Democrats who have sold the public out either. And I imagine that as a result of the sweep that is coming in November we'll have to rebalance the power in another eight years or so. And I too would like Obama to be more specific.

    But please, don't reiterate the GOP "who is Obama" meme. It's laughable since the Palin nomination. And don't accuse me of voting from vindictiveness. I know what we'd be getting with more GOP governance. I hope the Dems can and will clean up the mess without overly pandering in either direction.
  • mikkel
    I think it's also kind of weird that for the most part people seem to be OK with Obama but their primary concern is that Congress will be run by Democrats, which admittedly a lot of them propose really stupid things and have some of the same qualities as the worst Republicans.

    Well I think that the downfall of Congress is the biggest concern as its inability to function has helped drive polarization in the country, led to some of Bush's worst excesses and made the budget FUBAR. I don't see how we can have good governance from either party until Congress is fixed.
  • CStanley
    Mikkel: I absolutely agree with your points but they certainly don't give me any comfort!

    If people really are rejecting conservatism in favor of liberalism, shouldn't the people actually understand those principles first?? There's been such vast misunderstanding and misrepresentation of our entire economic situation that I'm horrified that people are making such judgments based on that knowledge or lack of knowledge.

    I suppose to your point about McCain lacking the ideas- I don't really disagree, but more fundamentally I suppose I believe that the conservative principle that Buckley famously described (standing athwart history and yelling stop) really does apply. Again, if people are desiring a strong shift toward liberalism, shouldn't they understand what that means first? Should people not take a critical look at Europe to see if moving in a more liberal direction helps or hurts economic conditions overall, and whether their policies are sustainable- instead of saying (as you seem to) "Hey, Europe is still so far to the left of us and they've survived so far, so why not move in that direction and give it a try?"

    On your last paragraph, again I agree that the primary complaint isn't necessarily about who gets punished- I just see that as the only way to open my argument, to try to get people to recognize that that's the sleight of hand that they're falling for (the blame the other guys syndrome.)

    A bit off topic, but I'd love to hear any feedback you have on a discussion I'm having with Rudi in another thread about the roots of the subprime meltdown (specifically, my timeline and the points that I'm trying to raise about party culpability as it relates to the tension between "creating more affordable housing" and the need to apply fiscally sound principles in doing so.)
  • considered
    Yes, Mikkel. Wouldn't it be nice if we had balance of power again? Thank goodness the balance shifted before the right got full control of the justice department and a "permanent republican majority" was secured. I don't know how Obama or McCain feel about a "unitary executive branch," but I know how I feel. Checks and balances - from both "sides of the aisle" is what I pray for. I put "sides of the aisle" in quotes because I see the right - left divide as a distraction. Just like the bailout made odd bedfellows, we really need to consider our candidates by different standards.
  • CStanley
    considered: I understand your point but I don't think we can wait two years before we get some rational oversight of Congress.

    I'm not trying to push the "who is Obama" meme as a talking point, I'm trying to raise the legitimate question of whether or not people are voting for him for positive reasons (other than ones based on his rhetoric) of policy. And I reject your claim that Palin negates this legitimate question, because she's the VP selection for a Presidential candidate that IS very well known. I realize that a bunch of people came on board because of Palin, and that's stupid- but really most people who are supporting McCain are supporting him, not her (in fact many of us are supporting him in spite of her- and I say that as someone who actually does see promise in her but I think she's way too green right now.)
  • Jim_Satterfield
    We certainly do know what we're getting with McCain. We're getting someone whose voting record has supported this current Administration 90%+ of the time. We're getting someone who has seriously proposed spending $300 billion on buying mortgages from banks at their old pre-crash value (Haven't the lenders already written off most of this from their books?) and having the government absorb all of their losses when they are re-structured into something affordable instead of looking for a compromise that wouldn't destroy the lenders but still not leave the taxpayer holding the entire bag.

    And dismissing Palin is impossible given McCain's age and health history. I don't want there to be the slightest chance that she will become President.
  • mikkel
    I didn't actually mean to imply that the rest of the world was doing stuff that was better and that it proves we should too. My point was more more subtle and not expressed, which is instead of viewing systems as having fixed solutions that will usher in the "best" situation, that it constantly changes. As such, our responses swing "back and forth" like a pendulum (although in reality that's not entirely true because although we like to define two sides that it's swinging between, in reality there are immense underlying changes that occur to both sides as they are in and out of power).

    I'm trying to figure out how to make this philosophical point briefly, but basically it is the idea that ALL sides tend to think (or act in a way) that the definition of a good society is the absence of the current ills, without realizing that the very act of changing will bring new ills and challenges. This isn't just a political phenomenon, but is easily seen in scientific understanding and even completely natural events like punctuated equilibrium in evolution.

    There are both intra-system swings that I think we tend to have, and inter-system swings where the entire order to destroyed (i.e. going to communism, dictatorship, etc). Both of these transitions are accompanied by disorder, power shifts and fear, with the greater the change the worse the transition period. The greater the problems in the current system, the more likely that there will be an inter-system swing.

    This is partially why history rhymes even if it doesn't repeat. For instance the current economic problems are caused by too much debt in the world and are the direct result of an inter-system change that happened with the creation of the Federal Reserve. That led to the Great Depression and from that arose modern economic theory of the Keynes/monetarists. They figured out how to tame the new system and thought that they could control it (with arguments and minor swings back between Keynesian thought and Friedman thought) but they shared the same underlying assumptions that I feel are demonstrably wrong. And now we're paying for it.

    But the only reason why we have the system we do is because on the prior system the boom/bust cycle was must shorter and more violent. So we've traded the 7-10 year cycle of prosperity and panic for a much longer one that builds up cumulative imbalances and then has a crash of unimaginable proportions. Ironically, any attempt to change the system once it's too overloaded will guarantee that things fail, so we tend to just work within the existing system by doing a swing and then when things get better and it would be a good time to reassess the basic assumptions, no one wants to cause things are "fixed." (Until the excesses of that swing show up of course.)

    Ironically, the very problems that we have created now that mystify a lot of the economists who never saw it coming were perfectly understood by the ones in the 1800s. So in some sense, we have gotten dumber in the last 100 years.

    I could write forever about this but to sum up my basic point, humans tend to think linearly and create positive feedbacks. This means that we extrapolate past trends and logic out to the future and once we get positive results, alter the system in a way that compounds the results (a good example is that very heavy tax burden and no free trade policies led to the idea that we should cut taxes and open up some trade, and when we did that had positive effects....so then it went to the idea that if taxes were as low as possible and there were as few barriers as possible that would just make it even better! Of course this isn't entirely true, but it's become ingrained as the "Truth.") In reality it's becoming clear that we should start adopting counter-cyclical negative-feedback economic and foreign policies to avoid wild imbalances.

    So it's not what Buckley said because it is not saying to "stop" (I'd argue this is always tough because there are always classes that will be out of power and a lot of progress comes from rotation of power....rotation that is natural due to technological advancement) but it is saying "slow down" and tries to work within the system. Then based on technological and social development, at some point those policies will fail and a new system will arise....and there will be a lot of turmoil but the chance for far greater regrowth.

    These ideas that destruction is a natural phenomenon and consequence of prosperity is ancient and seen in all the Eastern religions and thought but something that is notably absent from most Western. (Although I'm not sure that Eastern cultures have actually learned anything practical from this point as they are very statically oriented.)

    About Obama, from reading how he supposedly develops ideas and the ideas of his closest advisors, it is very clear that he is an intra-swing sorta guy, and even more so, that he is the type that embraces negative feedback loops (at least in theory). However, I fear that we're at a point where everything -- whether it's the economy, energy, foreign power balances, social mores -- is at a fissure point and about to erupt. The entire 20th century way of thinking is going to be severely challenged and I'm not sure if Obama is up to the task of recognizing this. I can't think of any politicians that are.
  • CStanley
    mikkel, I actually agree with almost all of that although once again i have no idea how to judge if you are right about the way Obama thinks or if you're just projecting again. ;-)

    I have to go but a quick point I want to make- to me it's not so much about liberalism being a boogeyman, though I do fundamentally default to conservative free market economics and then add on regulations rather than defaulting to a centralized govt led economic system.

    But I think the important thing is that people should understand the two philosophical approaches rather than judge the people that they think represent those approaches (as you mentioned Carter probably wasn't as liberal as his opponents think he was, and similarly GWB doesn't really represent conservatism.)

    And they should consider where the checks and balances lie with each system; to date, I feel that when we move in a more liberal/socialistic direction we end up with the worst of both systems because we lack ethical leadership- our elected officials usually sell their economic policies in such a way that the oversight function is overlooked. I believe that liberals are often right about the unfettered greed effects on Wall Street, but then they overlook the unfettered greed of liberal politicians- and vice versa for the conservative voters.

    That's where I think our emphasis needs to be.
  • mikkel
    Yeah I agree. And if we come up with a solution to the problem that has plagued humanity for 10,000 years I think we should get a prize.
  • timr
    stan, can you tell me what st john mccain will do about the economy? Oh, thats right, he said that he did not know anything about it, didn't he. With advisors like Phil Gramm what could possibly go wrong. I used to think that McCain would make a good president. But not after watching him bet his lungs with his choice of Palin and his first response to the economic meltdown. And yes, if you would bother to go to Obamas web page you can find pages of things about what his ideas are. I put the question right back at you. With mccain going all out 24/7 about ayers, just what is mccains plan for the economy? Your final question. If we elect mccain that alone whould tell me that no, we never learn. Republicians in charge since 1994. In charge of congress and the presidentcy since 2000, packing the courts with strict republicians. YET YOU WANT TO BLAME THE DEMS FOR THE CURRENT MESS??????? freekin amazin
  • timr
    Dennis, I don't know if you have been living in a cave for the last 2 years or have totally closed your mind to all information that reflects good on dems and bad on reps, but either way, your mind is so closed that it would do no good to argue with you. Hopefully, what McCain/Palin have done over this last week will convince the fence sitters and the rational republicians that McCain/Palin have totally surrendered to the demagogues in their party and have become so unhinged that they believe that the sight of angry mobs yelling traitor, off with his head and kill him will somehow convince voters that spending 24/7 talking about a person who did some violent acts 40 years ago-when Obama was 8 for gods sake-will garner them votes while the entire economy crumbles around them(and a mccain campaign spokesman says"we have to go after Obamas character, we have to turn the page on the economy because if we talk about the economy then Obama wins." )The entire world economy is falling apart around our ears. Obama is talking in a calm measured voice about what we should do, while mccain/palin shout and play to the mob and will not talk about the economy-which is the only thing that over 80% of the people want to talk about-because if he does, he loses. Yet you want to elect mccain. I have been listening to him since the entire edifice of the economy started to collapse. All I have heard from him is"I know how to fix the economy" "I know how to catch OBL" I know what to do". Sorry, but he will have to do a damn sight better than that to get elected. He was spending 24/7 talking about Ayres behind Obamas back. Yet when they got face to face in the debate, he would not say the same things to his face. mccain has become a moral coward.
  • CStanley
    timr, if I had a nickel for every time an Obama supporter said "Go to Obama's website" instead of answering a direct question about what he/she believes he plans to do, I wouldn't be worried about having enough cash to get through the impending recession/depression. IOW- yes, I know that Obama's website is detailed, but have you read it and do you understand it, and has it been updated to include detailed plans about how he'll fix our economy after this crash? My complaint about Obama all along is the disconnect I see between his campaigning which attracts people with lofty but fuzzy rhetoric, and his platform which sometimes even contradicts what he says on the stump and in debates, and then his record which is different than all of that still. So yes, I do think that McCain's question of "Who is the real Obama?" is a fair one, because so many people don't seem to really know and instead are just putting faith in him.

    And then there's all of the other talking points that get bandied around, like Phil Gramm. What is your objection to him, exactly? I'll be interested to see if you even know why people have demonized him, or if you're just regurgitating.
  • CStanley
    Yeah I agree. And if we come up with a solution to the problem that has plagued humanity for 10,000 years I think we should get a prize.

    Ha, so true. But look at it this way, mikkel...you and I seem to agree about the basic approach to the situation, but your view is that one particular man is the key to getting to that solution and that rests on that one man's ability to intellectualize the right blend of policies and to morally oversee the system to prevent abuses. My view is that the solution has to come from a more adversarial system of checks and balances which includes sometimes balancing party identities to push back against each other, while also educating voters to their responsibility of being less partisan and more objective in evaluating their legislators for malfeasance.

    So, which of us has the more realistic approach?
  • mikkel
    Well I don't think that one man can change anything. In fact, I think that history is full of instances where one man has actually broken through and created awareness, but that died with him.

    My argument is two fold:

    First Obama is trying to create a movement. He is looking to reframe politics for the next 30 years just as Reagan, FDR and Lincoln did. So my faith isn't in him per se, it's that it'll become bigger than him.

    Also our Checks and Balances are broken. Congress is broken. Whether it's Democrats or Republicans there will be no effective checks nor leadership. I think the entire balance of power is off (something that I'll admit started under Liberal political aims even as it was expanded under Reagan through the present). If you could give me the choice between voting for a competent Congress that represented the best of liberalism and pair it with McCain, versus a competent one that represented the best of conservatism paired with Obama, I'd have a very tough choice to make. And I'd rather the latter than Obama with a Democratic congress.

    But considering that's not the choice it's easy for me.

    But no I'm not optimistic as I don't think that the problems are political in nature at all. I think that politics are more of a consequence of the fundamental nature of society rather than a driving force. I have more faith that the Gates Foundation will help solve health care than politics, and that the tech crowd is going to step up very soon and help with our energy and transportation problems. The technology is there it just requires vision and leadership that I think politics won't provide.

    That said I think that government has a very influential role in helping foster some of that, albeit often inadvertently and in programs no one thinks about.

    Since I don't think politics are the answer, I'm much more intent on working on my projects that if they work out will save tens if not hundreds of billions a year and further understanding of systems, and doing that in a way where hopefully at some point I'll have the money and influence to affect some of the core changes on a fundamental level.
  • CStanley
    All good points, mikkel, and we're so close to agreement on the fundamental issues but then I can never understand why you don't follow that to what I feel is the most logical conclusion- defaulting to the situation that will help keep government from growing and voting for someone who believes in the power of the private sector over the power of the government.

    That's the thing- people can laugh at conservatives who are genuinely afraid of "libruls!" but to me there's a very real basis to that fear. For me, it's not about fear, it's about a deep seated belief that when we elect people who strongly believe that the government based solutions are the correct approach, we give over power (and more importantly, money and other resources) that needs to remain with the people.
  • mikkel
    Because I've looked at the evidence. Carter: almost no increase in the debt, Reagan and Bush massive increases; Clinton almost no increase; Bush II humongous increases.

    I think that the idea that the Republicans do keep power with the people is laughable. To me it's very clear that they have become a crony capitalist party that expands the role of government to give handouts to everyone, but funnels more to the rich.

    Look at McCain's mortgage proposal. While the Democrats stupidly suggest buying mortgages and having them on the government's books, McCain suggested buying them at face value which is an automatic transfer of wealth to the people that created the mess.

    Look at the Medicare drug bill. The Democrats suggest a greater role in medicine through insurance, but the Republicans passed a bill that cost over $1 Trillion over 10 years that gives it all to existing insurance companies and gives them complete freedom to determine what drugs they cover and switch them at will.

    Look at the military and government operations in general. Both sides advocate increasing them, but only the Republicans have outsourced the duties to private companies that auditors have found increase costs 30-80%.

    The question of "public" vs "private" sector is outdated. The real question is that of "debt" and "liquidity" versus "regulation." Republican policies have expanded the debt and are pro-massive liquidity while against regulation...and McCain's proscriptions follow this pattern.

    The true fiscal conservatives that are for real free markets I have little disagreement with. They are for disbanding the Federal Reserve, going to a gold standard, pulling back all our military commitments and merely having a force large enough for defense (they want to go back to the idea that the military is only large enough to protect the country from invasion and if we need to fight a foreign war we should mobilize the whole country and raise taxes like in WWII) and cutting most government programs.

    These policies would cause a massive collapse in asset prices and cut off most credit except for business ventures. It would encourage saving and keep the government from expanding through debt issuance.

    I disagree that we can just switch over to this system because we don't have the social institutions to support a fast switch. But I am open to the idea that if we start now then in a few decades the role of private non-profits and for-profit corporations could supplant a lot of government functions while charity and volunteerism would have to increase a lot to help those in need...but I think that is possible.
  • mikkel
    Oh I also think that the Republican Party (including McCain) have become anti-intellectual. They have no respect for scientific input or basic research.

    The sneering at Obama for suggesting that keeping tires properly inflated and the car tuned would save as much oil as the expected increase from drilling off the coasts...when with realistic assumptions the math supported him...was appalling! And that is beneficial now, not in 20 years.

    Combined with his grizzly DNA comments (which weren't inserted haphazardly but at the request of a commission looking at protecting the species) and I have little faith that McCain will respect basic research much more than Bush.
  • CStanley
    Well, as I said before, I agree that Carter shouldn't be the poster child for liberalism (though he represents the dovish foreign policy position pretty well) nor Reagan or Bush for conservatism. But I don't see what's wrong with supporting the party that at least theoretically has the right idea, and then attempting to hold them to it, rather than supporting the party that actually opposes the right ideas (I realize that you don't have the same opinion about what the right ideas are overall- but talking here about what I think is our point of agreement, smaller govt, balancing the budget by reducing spending, etc.)

    I just think that your goal of shifting to private sector solutions will be completely thwarted by an Obama administration working in tandem with a Dem Congress. We've already moved too far toward govt based solutions, and our trusty leaders have learned that they can sell the public on quasi private partnerships which really serve no one's interest but the politicians. Look at the GSEs, where the legitimate goal of increasing homeownership gave cover to politicians forming corrupt partnerships and refusing to allow proper oversight (using the laudable goals of the program as a shield by accusing anyone who questioned the practices of having less honorable intentions.)

    I think that Obama really seems keen on the public-private partnerships like ACORN and other community organizer groups (he said at a panel discussion of community organizers during the primary that he'll meet with their leaders during the transition time, before he's even in office, to get their input in setting his agenda!) That's a dangerously wrong approach IMO and it goes to the heart of the judgment issues that surround his past associations.

    I understand your point about not having private organizations ready to take over the function, but again, I think it'll be worse the longer we wait to try to make that shift.
  • mikkel
    I don't think the Democrats are going to prohibit the creation of non-profit health insurance companies or forbid making geothermal power plants. At the very worst they'd increase taxes and then the people working on those projects would need to convince more people of their vision.

    Sometimes it's better to accept a system that you disagree with but is more logically consistent rather than one that could theoretically be better but is in complete disarray. I also think a lot of it comes down to sacrifice.

    A lot of libertarian and conservative types complain about government intrusion holding them back but lead pretty extravagant lives (I think that our upper middle class has a pretty extravagant lifestyle in the scheme of things). I'd rather have a system that has more safety nets even if they are very inefficient, and then make some personal sacrifices to set up alternatives than to support one that is inept and gives a bad name to some of my aims.

    The Ron Pauls of the world are grouped in with the Phil Gramms of the world because ostensibly they believe in "free markets" even though they have entirely different drivers.

    I also think it's easy to reform when out of power. So if the Republicans say, I dunno, supported ending the drug war and moving to real Paygo and running surpluses to cut down on our debt and cutting military spending and corporate subsidies.....then maybe I'd reconsider. But they aren't going to do those things while in power.


    Speaking of which a lot of it is probably generational. I really don't like a lot of Democrats that are from back in the day while I like a lot of the new generation. Similarly I don't mind a lot of old Republicans while I despise a lot of the new ones. Sometimes it seems like your fears and overlooking is a result of expecting things to be like they were in the 60s/70s while I don't see that at all. It could just be that decades of having the dominant thought corrupts no matter what, and when I'm older the up and coming conservatives will be far better. In fact we're starting to see that already on social issues.
  • CStanley
    I guess we just see things very differently in terms of what drives change (and frankly, I've been around longer so I feel that I speak from experience. A lot of what you believe seems to make sense but having lived through some periods of change and some periods where change was needed, I find that it often doesn't work out the way you think it will.)

    For example, you said earlier in this thread that you don't put your faith in Obama as one individual but rather in the movement he's leading- but my response to that is that he still will be very important as an individual in how he shapes that movement and I don't like what I see so far. As a comparison, take the civil rights movement- MLK made very deliberate decisions about how he could best capture the rising sentiment, how to control it, how to lead through specific rhetoric and actions, and how to prevent elements that other civil rights leaders were promoting which would have led to setbacks instead of progress (disassociating from groups like the Black Panthers.) I don't see any of those elements in Obama's leadership- in fact just the opposite. That may be due to the fact that he's working through the political process, where vague platitudes work best to capture the overall sense of desire for change instead of specific leadership to goals that he really explains to the people in his movement. But regardless of the reasons, that's a problem.

    And then there's your point in this last comment about party's reconsidering and reforming when they're out in the wilderness. That's the CW, but I don't think it really happens that way- instead, one party sits out until the other one screws up badly enough for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction, and then voters get so mad that they decide to kick out the bums in that party and put the old bums back in place. Sure, occasionally you get a true change in the party that went through a timeout (Newt Gingrich's movement was one such example) but even that was shortlived because the voters didn't hold them to the changes they'd promised.

    I honestly don't know what the answer is to reforming the GOP- I think it probably has more to do with starting from the grassroots in state parties, to grow a new crop of politicians in waiting. I certainly wouldn't want to return the GOP to control of both branches of the federal govt right now, but I think voters are mistaken to think that it's a good idea to allow one party rule by the Democrats either. IOW, I don't really know what works but I think I know what doesn't work.
  • DLS
    "I honestly don't know what the answer is to reforming the GOP- I think it probably has more to do with starting from the grassroots in state parties, to grow a new crop of politicians in waiting."

    I believe it would be much cheaper as well as more coherent if the GOP simply chose to privatize and contract-out its operations -- to the Heritage Foundation!

    (It's not whether anyone likes or dislikes that organization. It's that that organization is well known for presenting what amounts to the mainstream model nowadays of US conservatism, whose publishings could simply be read verbatim by righty talk radio show hosts. At least they, unlike the GOP, know what they want to do.)
blog comments powered by Disqus
© 2005-2009 The Moderate Voice | Site design by Elegant Themes | Site customization, hosting, and security by Enxit Group, LLC