Comments on: Snap Polls: Obama Won

By: mlhradio

mlhradio — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:44:18 +0000

Aronchick, I think that McCain lost the election the day he said that 'the economy is strong" a few weeks back, right before everything went batshiat crazy. (I even mentioned as much on my blog on that day). Most people were beginning to think that McCain might really have a chance - this was before Sarah Palin became "the Palin Problem", and McCain was running neck-and-neck with Obama in the polls.

Graph here: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily...

McCain's "The economy is strong" threw the train way off the tracks. McCain essentially lost the election that day -- but even after that it was still possible for him to pull a stunning come-from-behind victory, if he played his cards right and with a little help. And as each day has gone by over these past 2-3 weeks, without some game-changer for McCain, that possibility has become increasingly improbable.

Tonight's debate "might" be that final nail in the coffin of the McCain campaign. His "That One" comment was exceptionally jarring, and could end up being the defining memorable moment of the debate.

Of course, there's still four weeks to go, and in this "anything goes" atmosphere I wouldn't count out a miracle occurring. Stranger things have happened before. But reading all of the commentary on the web, it sure feels like the overwhelming sentiment is that it's all over now. "That One", won.

By: aronchick

aronchick — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:51:43 +0000

They may have been odd focus groups, but you can see how he came off just cranky. Which is a real shame, because I think he really cares for the country and would be a good leader (would have been even better in 2000 ).

I think people will point back to “This One” (http://www.entertonement.com/clips/32560/2008-S…) for the second that McCain absolutely lost.

By: elrod

elrod — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:04:54 +0000

With all due respect, the focus group members were odd. The dude with piercings all over himself was creepy. And the blond woman looked like she smokes 5 packs of cigarettes a day. All of them seemed bizarrely stubborn.

By: ChrisWWW

ChrisWWW — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:56:08 +0000

Patrick E,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the undecided focus groups are purposefully split 50/50 between people who voted for Kerry and Bush respectively in 2004.

On the other hand, polls tend to try to match the overall demographics and party identification of the rest of the country. Demographics and party identification that tends to benefit Democrats in the wake of Bush's spectacularly awful presidency.

By: Patrick E

Patrick E — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:45:00 +0000

I do find it interesting that most of the focus groups tended to split evenly or slightly Obama while the polls always tend to favor the Democratic candidate.