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Snap Polls: Obama Won
We seem to be seeing the same trend as after the first presidential debate and the VP debate: Pundits and political junkies saw it as a tie, but voters in snap polls give the edge to the Democratic candidate.
The results from about 500 uncommitted voters surveyed by CBS:
- Who won the debate? 39% say Obama, 27% McCain, 35% rate it a tie.
- How did the debate impact vote preferences? 15% say they are now committed to Obama, 14% to McCain and 70% are still uncommitted.
- Candidates rated – would make the right decisions about the economy?
McCain: 41% before the debate, 49% after
Obama: 54% before the debate, 68% after - Candidates rated – understands your needs?
McCain: 35% before the debate, 46% after
Obama: 60% before the debate, 80% after -
Candidates rated – prepared for the job of president
McCain: 80% before the debate, 84% after
Obama: 42% before the debate, 57% after - Did candidates answer the questions they were asked?:
57% yes, 42% no — for both candidates
And from a CNN instant poll (via Pollster):
- Who did the best job in the debate?
McCain (R) 30
Obama (D) 54 - Opinion of Barack Obama (before debate)
Favorable: 64 (60)
Unfavorable: 34 (38) - Opinion of John McCain (before debate)
Favorable: 51 (51)
Unfavorable: 46 (46) - Who expressed his views more clearly in the debate?
Obama 60
McCain 30 - Who spent more time attacking his opponent?
Obama 17
McCain 63 - Who seemed to be the stronger leader?
Obama 54
McCain 43 - Who was most likable?
Obama 65
McCain 28
Obama may have quietly won the election tonight. People are starting to get comfortable with the idea of him as a president. He didn’t need anything dramatic to give pundits fodder; he needed to appeal to unsure voters, and that’s exactly what he did. McCain can’t win it all in the last debate. He needed to shift momentum tonight to put himself within striking distance in the last debate, and he didn’t do that. Now, he’ll have to find another way to change the game between now and then. Look for it to get real nasty.
5 Responses to “Snap Polls: Obama Won”
I do find it interesting that most of the focus groups tended to split evenly or slightly Obama while the polls always tend to favor the Democratic candidate.
Patrick E,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the undecided focus groups are purposefully split 50/50 between people who voted for Kerry and Bush respectively in 2004.
On the other hand, polls tend to try to match the overall demographics and party identification of the rest of the country. Demographics and party identification that tends to benefit Democrats in the wake of Bush's spectacularly awful presidency.
With all due respect, the focus group members were odd. The dude with piercings all over himself was creepy. And the blond woman looked like she smokes 5 packs of cigarettes a day. All of them seemed bizarrely stubborn.
They may have been odd focus groups, but you can see how he came off just cranky. Which is a real shame, because I think he really cares for the country and would be a good leader (would have been even better in 2000
).
I think people will point back to “This One” (http://www.entertonement.com/clips/32560/2008-S…) for the second that McCain absolutely lost.
Aronchick, I think that McCain lost the election the day he said that 'the economy is strong” a few weeks back, right before everything went batshiat crazy. (I even mentioned as much on my blog on that day). Most people were beginning to think that McCain might really have a chance – this was before Sarah Palin became “the Palin Problem”, and McCain was running neck-and-neck with Obama in the polls.
Graph here: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily…
McCain's “The economy is strong” threw the train way off the tracks. McCain essentially lost the election that day — but even after that it was still possible for him to pull a stunning come-from-behind victory, if he played his cards right and with a little help. And as each day has gone by over these past 2-3 weeks, without some game-changer for McCain, that possibility has become increasingly improbable.
Tonight's debate “might” be that final nail in the coffin of the McCain campaign. His “That One” comment was exceptionally jarring, and could end up being the defining memorable moment of the debate.
Of course, there's still four weeks to go, and in this “anything goes” atmosphere I wouldn't count out a miracle occurring. Stranger things have happened before. But reading all of the commentary on the web, it sure feels like the overwhelming sentiment is that it's all over now. “That One”, won.