Obama McCain Political Debate Context: Polls Still Show Volatile Race

When presidential hopefuls Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and GOP Sen. John McCain debate tonight, the growing conventional wisdom in some circles is that Obama is firmly on a path to victory — but. in reality, polls still show a still-highly-volatile race.

A race where a debate — a gaffe, a well-delivered charge that strongly connects with people, a memorable prepared or spontaneous zinger — can make a difference by causing a shift that could mean another nail-biter election night or even votes breaking one candidate’s way.

A look at the polls this morning confirms the fact that, at this point, neither Obama nor McCain have totally closed the sale. But today’s poll trending, if various polls are viewed as a group, isn’t good for McCain.

And viewed within this context, the McCain campaign’s big negative personal assault on Obama (in effect suggesting that he is a fellow traveler of dangerous terrorists who hate America and an outright liar in an admitted effort to turn the campaign and media focus from the economy to Obama) can be viewed as yet another “hail Mary” pass.

*Zobgy has Obama with a three point lead, within the margin of error with Obama 48 percent, McCain 45 percent. It says the race is “too close to call” and the polls shows a McCain recovery.

*The Real Clear Politics poll chart shows Obama leading by three points in some polls (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking, CBS News, Democracy Corps (D)), by six points in some others (NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl, Hotline/FD Tracking), seven points in one (GW/Battleground Tracking), and by eight in three (CNN, Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking). When the polls are averaged, Obama leads by 5.8 percent.

*Daily Kos’ poll has Obama ahead by 11 percent.

Various state polls increasingly show good news for Obama. Two obvious points have to be factored-in: (1) the increasingly bad news from the economic front and (2) the rather large shifts in some of these polls which suggest either people making their minds up or an electorate that continues to be volatile and could shift the other way if the McCain campaign does convince voters that Obama is a dangerous choice who can make a bad situation worse.

Here are a few of those polls (which can change later in the day):

–A CNN/Time poll finds Obama leading in some key red states but if you look at the details the lead is not huge in some of them. But there is a definite trend.

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week’s vice presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion.

In North Carolina, which Bush won by more than 12 percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, McCain and Obama are locked in a dead heat, with each candidate garnering the support of 49% of likely voters. In Indiana, which Bush won by 21 points in 2004 and 16 points in 2000, McCain maintains a slight 5 point lead over Obama, with 51% of likely voters, compared to Obama’s 46%.

In the crucial swing state of Ohio, which Bush won by slight margins in both 2000 and 2004, McCain trails Obama by 3 points, with the support of 47% of voters, compared to Obama’s 50%. Obama also holds a statistically significant 8 point lead over McCain in New Hampshire and a 5 point lead in Wisconsin, two states that Democrat John Kerry was able to win in 2004.

As a result of the new survey, CNN now considers New Hampshire and Wisconsin to be Obama-leaning states, after previously being considered tossups. North Carolina is now considered a tossup, after previously being categorized as a McCain-leaning state.

*Fox/Rasmussen finds Obama gaining in swing states.

*Obama ahead by 10 in Pennsylvania.

*Obama ahead by six in Ohio.

*Obama ahead by six in North Carolina.

*A new poll shows Obama ahead by 12 points in Virginia.

*The AP reports that McCain has given back gains in polling in New Jersey:

After closing within six points of Democrat Barack Obama following the Republican National Convention, Republican John McCain has again fallen well behind in the presidential race in New Jersey, according to a new poll.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University-Public Mind Poll out Tuesday has Obama with 50 percent to McCain’s 37 percent among likely voters. An FDU poll a month ago had Obama with 47 percent to 41 percent for McCain.

“To be competitive in New Jersey, McCain needed to make a strong play for voters dissatisfied with the results of the Democratic primary,” said Dan Cassino, a survey analyst for the poll. “That simply has not happened.”

A McCain problem is that, as he goes negative, his negatives go way up as he tries to make Obama unelectable. The other big problem remains George Bush. MSNBC’s First read:

‘As we mentioned above, Bush’s approval rating in the NBC/WSJ poll is 29%. But it becomes just 10% when you exclude Republicans. That is just stunning. Remember, that 10% job approval is among Dems and indies. Sure, Democrats are anti-Bush, but indies are a 50-50 split between Obama and McCain, and they are pretty anti-Bush too.