McCain’s Death Throes

It’s always sad to see a venerated figure descend into self-parody. Like Michael Richards - Kramer from Seinfeld - who circled around the toilet bowl in a fit of racist rage in a stand-up comedy show, the McCain brand is quickly turning an election defeat into a humiliating rout. Yes, the economy is the fundamental factor here. But McCain’s decision to turn the last month into a hate-fest looks desperate.

There is a time and place for character attacks in politics: August. Every successful character attack in prior elections took place in August and early September - never October. The point is simple: destroy the opponent just when people start tuning in. But when it comes time for the homestretch, pivot back to unifying and positive themes. Bush did this in 2004 as did his father in 1988.

McCain seemed poised to do the same thing this year. He went hard negative in late July with the Britney Spears meme. The attacks helped consolidate Republican support behind McCain, even though many never liked him. But then, at the RNC, John McCain delivered one of the more underrated speeches of the whole cycle. With a record audience watching John McCain summoned the old 2000 version filled with high-minded idealism, independence, likability and reform. It was the happy warrior that captivated so many people in 2000.

Sarah Palin certainly helped McCain solidify the base and allow him to pivot to the center. But McCain may have been able to do it on his own.

The polls at the time validated McCain’s strategy. In early September, after the RNC, McCain had attained a small but measurable lead in all polls.

But then Black Monday happened. The stock market crashed. Major investment banks collapsed. And the government was called upon to bail out the financial services industry.

From that point on Obama simply took over the race. This happened for three reasons:
1) The general public always blames the party in power for economic woes. That’s the Republicans (despite the Dems holding Congress since 2006).
2) McCain has admitted all along that economics is not his strong suit. And his top economic adviser over the years - Phil Gramm - made a perfect symbol for Wall Street excess
3) McCain responded, yes, erratically to the crisis. He said the fundamentals of the economy are strong, and then later in the day said they were in crisis; he called for a Blue Ribbon commission and then rejected it the next day; he called for the SEC Chairman to be fired, and then pulled that back; he suspended his campaign and called for a postponement of the debate…and then went ahead to the debate without a deal; he showed up in Washington ready to get things done and then sat silently in the White House meeting. By contrast, Obama was calm, cool and collected through the whole crisis. Yes, he was hands-off with the negotiations. But that may have been the right call, considering that Obama did not sit on the banking and finance committee.

Every tack the McCain camp took - accusing Obama of “cheerleading the crisis,” sitting on the sidelines, vacillating, etc. - seemed to backfire.

So John McCain made a fateful decision this weekend. It’s time to “turn the page” on the economy and start slinging mud.

Barack Obama stood ready for the assault, launching a pre-emptive ad mocking McCain for thinking he can turn the page on the economy. Once McCain - and Palin particularly - pushed the Ayers issue, Obama greenlighted the Keating Five issue. While I wish Obama had not brought up the Keating Five, I understand that Obama would have appeared Dukakis-like if he failed to respond forcefully.

So here we are, with McCain descending further and further into Michelle Malkin-land, invoking far-right conspiracy theories just to rile the base. As Peggy Noonan pointed out today, McCain and Palin just aren’t big enough for this moment. Going to the base in October is a sign of weakness. Having a uniformed sheriff from Lee County, FL say “Barack Hussein Obama” is a sign of desperation, not strength. And accusing Obama of “palling around with terrorists,” while the financial crisis instills real terror into people’s hearts is a sign of how out of touch the McCain has become.

There are really only two questions at this point:

1) Did McCain go this route out of personal frustration? Is this recklessness on his part simply a reflection of desperation in McCain’s camp?

2) Or is this a well-thought-out strategy meant to pull voters away from Obama?

The key here is timing. If McCain piled this stuff on in July and August then I would say it was the latter. But in October, with voters already voting in many states and polls consolidating behind Obama, these attacks look like mere flailing more than anything else. It’s as if the McCain campaign has nothing but the Bradley Effect to bail itself out. And I doubt that will work.

This is the sign of a campaign in its death throes. Its charges don’t stick. Its rhetoric is mocked far and wide. And the center turns away in revulsion. McCain has been reduced to literally reading viral (and debunked) emails at rallies. This happened to Dole down the stretch in 1996 and to Bush in 1992. Only a national security crisis or massive revelation from Obama can save John McCain now. Barring that, this campaign is essentially over.