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Is Election 2008 Over? Chickens and Eggs Edition
To read Howard Wolfson this morning, one would think that we should start packing things up here at TMV and preparing to launch our new online endeavor in recipe-sharing for Icelandic food enthusiasts. Given the continual sag in McCain-Palin poll numbers and the seemingly desperate nature of Big Mac’s decision to send his running mate out calling Obama a terrorist buddy, it’s easy to understand how some on the Left may be riding a tide of optimism.
Perpetually fretting Democrats will not want to accept it. The campaigns themselves can’t afford to believe it. Many journalists know it but can’t say it. And there will certainly be some twists and turns along the way. But take it to a well capitalized bank: Bill Ayers isn’t going to save John McCain. The race is over.
Even the reliable James Joyner, while certainly not a supporter of the Democrats, seems to see reason for confidence on the part of Obama supporters.
Howard Wolfson is almost surely right that “Bill Ayers Won’t Save John McCain.” Unless there’s far, far more to the association than we’ve seen, it’s a non-story that’s already been absorbed into the current polls.
I must say, with sites like 538 currently projecting Obama to blow McCain out in the electoral college by a margin of 340 to 198, this is almost breathtaking to behold. I’ve rarely seen a team doing so much end zone celebrating in a game where there is still at least five minutes to go in the fourth quarter and they are barely ahead by a touchdown. This is not to say that I believe Wolfson and others are fundamentally wrong. Obama may well still march on to victory. I agree that this attempt to shift the focus to William Ayers is nearly as desperate as having McCain begin his opening statements on Tuesday night by saying, “This is not a time to turn the country over to somebody who used to snort cocaine off the naked buttocks of Larry Sinclaire in limos.”
But it is also worth remembering that John McCain was up in the polls only a couple of weeks ago. American politics can and does turn on a dime and few are prescient enough to predict when and where those coins will fall. There is still nearly a month to go, and in political time that may as well be a century. Swings states tend to swing, and, like any good pendulum, what goes one way should not surprise any of us if it turns around and heads back in the other direction. While the Obama inaugural celebrations are being planned, I would remind his supporters about the rule regarding counting chickens before beaks are visible. Congratulations to you if you prevail, but you’ll excuse me if I don’t order my inaugural ball tickets just yet.
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3 Responses to “Is Election 2008 Over? Chickens and Eggs Edition”
Completely agree. If one REALLY looks honestly at the primary reason for Obama's recent strength in the polls, little of it is really due to anything Obama has done proactively. He's really benefitted from a meme of discontent, where McCain seems a more fitting scapegoat for the economic problems to more voters. It's arguable whether there is merit to this view (versus there being plenty of blame on all sides), but it's pervasive. McCain hasn't helped himself with his “fundamentals are sound” comments and perhaps erratic demeanor.
For his part, Obama has mainly helped his cause by being himself. A few weeks ago, many pro-Obama pundits were saying he needed to be more angry, more aggressive in order to get back in the race. On the contrary, his calm, steady, thoughtful persona has I think been reassuring to people who see chaos, not just in McCain's discombobulated reaction to the bailout, but growing all around them. Obama does need to show passion in measured doses, but overall, he needs to project himself as unshakeable under pressure, while taking decisive positions.
However he approaches the next month, victory is FAR from a certainly. Just two weeks ago, Democratic Congressional candidates were worried about being attached to a losing Presidential ticket. There is a LONG way to go in this race, even if Obama wins the debates. These things ALWAYS swing in the last month.
If you want to get ahead of the curve, people can start writing about whether the Republicans can come back from McCain's landslide loss. Given the demographics of the U.S., there is no good long term prospect for the Repulbican Party. So the next question is how will the U.S. and the Democratic party function with the Democrats being the only relevant poliltical party.
I completely agree with this.
I'm suffering from appalledness fatigue from watching this go off-and-on for a year. And not just from Obama, but from Clinton and Giulliani and Thompson and a whole bunch of candidates who–oops!!–ain't gonna win in November.