As far as being the thing noone dares speak of, not true at all, the propaganda is all over the liberal web sites and they are trying to sell the eminent victory of their candidate before the votes to discourage McCain supporters. THe fact is although Obama has added a bit to his polling leads, for what thats worth, this election is still incredibly close.

There was a cartoon earlier this summer (I think around the time Obama was in Germany) and the punch line was (around some significant event), “What is Obama doing?” (The idea being Obama made good decisions and the Republicans wanted to make a good decision, but didn't know how.) McCain may start following Obama's lead around outside events…. McCain really came across as a novice politician around the bailout bill and throwing his eggs in the basket so hard that they broke going in….

But so, so very much could happen in a month's time. Go back to September 3rd, could anyone here imagine all that has happened in the past month? Not just the dozen or so improbable political twists and turns, but also the rollercoaster of the economic blowout, the hurricane aftermath, the gas shortages?

Ten points ahead a month before the election means nothing. I've said it before, I'll say it again — The old saying goes, Overnight is a lifetime in politics. Therefore, one month equals thirty lifetimes. Don't start hoping for a blowout just yet, there's a long way to go before we reach that stage.

If we want to return to my previous threshold for what is substantial — again, it's the “golden” or “divine” proportion. Will Obama beat McCain by more than 61.8 per cent to 38.2 per cent? Prior to Palin's choice, I said it was possible. I don't believe it is so now, but the margin is likely to increase now, given problems with the economy.

Look at the current divergence in the two following trend graphs, and look at the graphs again around the middle of next week to see if there is any more divergence, or if Palin gave a number of GOP voters enough hope that McCain could still prevail, in the end, that you'll see a reversal and actually see some measure of convergence.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

(If all voters were smart and moral, there would be a crossover as early as today! Biden actually said that his team wants to let judges rewrite loans and actually go so far as not only to reduce interest, but principal! What an Evo Morales-style stunt.)

That's a fair point, but I still can't imagine how this race won't tighten up dramatically in the weeks ahead. The other question is who is likely to cast their vote early? Not undecided voters in battleground states most likely. They are the all important X factor. All it takes is for a few percent of them to waver in a couple of critical states like Pennsylvania, Florida or Ohio to rewrite the election map.

Obama, like the man that it increasingly looks like he will succeed, is largely untested. Like that man, he will need to depend to an extraordinary extent on advisers who are tested.

In that respect voters are rolling the dice just as they did in 2000. Pretty scary, eh?

Even more scary is the idea that McCain could still win. McCain has been tested, and he failed.

In four years, the Obama administration could be trying either to stay in Afghanistan or why the chaos is the middle east is not worth bothering about. Either way, it four years, a position on a war will be pointless.

What has happened is that the Republicans have stopped standing for anything. The republicans spend at a faster rate than Democrats and are just as corrupt. The Republicans are also too stupid to understand the demographic wave that will bury them.

BTW – Shaun I never followed up on the prediction of an Obama blowout in PA that you posted here a few days before the primary vote. How did that turn out?

“Pretty scary, eh?”b -sm

Way.

The blow out will be bigger than people believe because this may be the first eleciton where black turnout as a percentage of registered voters could exceed white voters. McCain has alienated many traditionally conservative groups and the incomptence of the McCain has turned off many white voters who would vote for him.

However, black voters will probably turn out in record numbers even in states where Obama is a sure winner or were the polls show that McCain should win.

The increase in black voter turnout will probably cause Elizabeth Dole to lose her seat in North Carolina and could affect the Senate seats in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Georgia.

McCain's only issue is that he is not Obama and that is not a good enough reason for moderate, rural, white swing voters to put the effort into voting.

Absent such a change, though, as I said, it's getting harder and harder to see a path to victory for the McCain campaign. If the economic crisis is “handled” and somehow fades from the news in the next two weeks, *perhaps* McCain cold see a resurge, but it's hard to picture.