Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Registration Wars & Senate Sensibilities

Rhodes Cook on DEMOCRATS WINNING THE REGISTRATION WARS

The presidential debate season is just underway. The polls are in flux. The issue agenda–which has already shifted in the last month from the Sarah Palin effect to “lipstick on a pig” to the nation’s worst economic crisis since the Depression–may shift again before Election Day.

But one important factor has remained constant: the Democrats’ clear-cut advantage in the ongoing voter registration wars. Since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004, the Democrats have registered nearly 1.3 million additional voters while the Republicans have lost nearly 800,000. This, as states prepare to close their registration rolls in advance of the general election.

Not every one of the newly minted Democrats is a sure vote for Barack Obama next month…

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Larry J. Sabato on SENATE SENSIBILITIES – The October 2008 Update: Democrats Continue on a Roll

There are a few changes to report in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in July-almost all of them in favor of the Democratic candidates. Yet the fundamental outlook hasn’t changed terribly much. The Democrats will pick up a fair number of seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats, and all their incumbents are running again. The Republicans have drawn the short straw, trying to protect 23 seats with five incumbents retiring in a tough political environment for the GOP.

Democrats are on target to add a minimum of four seats. They may gain as many as seven or eight. Unlike some other prognosticators, however, we still believe the Democrats are unlikely to gain the nine seats required to hit the magic number of 60 needed to shut down filibusters…

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