Comments on: Political Stunner: McCain Pulling Out Of Michigan

By: Rudi

Rudi — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 03:52:53 +0000

Turn out the McCain lights the party is over. If this story is true, the story could be over in Pennsylvani because of similar demographics and situations. The firewalls seem to be Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, seems most of the old Rust Belt has turned on McCain.

By: janinedm

janinedm — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 21:52:45 +0000

Democrats shouldn’t get too giddy over this however. If anything, campaign 2008 has been marked by stark and sudden poll reversals.

I know that this is the common wisdom, but every polling average (538, RCP, Pollster) I've checked has Obama consistently in the lead since May, except for the days immediately following the GOP convention. I'm all for keeping Dems engaged, but if you look at other years, particularly 2000 and 2004, you'll see far more of the candidates actually trading places.

By: DLS

DLS — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 21:08:47 +0000

If Biden says something really, _really_ dumb, it may be so funny people will love it, as we found Baghdad Bob to be entertaining.

By: DLS

DLS — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 21:07:24 +0000

As I wrote earlier — perfect timing, right before the VP debate. Confidence-inspiring.

Michigan may have just fallen to Obama and maybe McCain will flood Florida with ads.

By: JWeidner

JWeidner — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 21:06:28 +0000

Yes, the personality rules principle COULD apply, but it may not carry the day. I also remember Bentson's “You're no Jack Kennedy” line used against Dan Quayle. Zingers delivered in Vice Presidential debates don't necessarily deliver the “game-changing” moments that we tend to think they will.

Granted, this is a far different set of circumstances, but I'm starting to think that Palin's reputation is very nearly set in cement at this date. A strong performance on her part may start a turnaround, but I'm doubtful that a zinger or two will do much more than give her one favorable moment in the press among too many unfavorable ones.

By: Marlowecan

Marlowecan — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:25:55 +0000

Sort of OT, but I think Joe makes an EXCELLENT point above about debates:

“…the Personality Rules principle of American politics will kick in and the narrative will be about Palin’s success and Biden’s verbal flub or perceived sexist bungle. The result: some of Palin’s negatives will melt away, and Biden could become an anchor to the Obama ticket.”

I have been thinking about these events as fundamentally unfair in many ways.
Consider: if some clever, underpaid GOP writer comes up with a good zinger (Recall Reagan's “I will not use my opponent's youth and inexperience” line in his 1984 debate with Mondale), and Palin is lucky enough to use it, then she could seem the victor in the debate.

I am no supporter of Obama, but I consider Biden – for all his gaffes – to be a far stronger VP pick than Palin.

But if Palin gets lucky, she might “win”. . . and all of Biden's years of experience and knowledge (yes, of FDR on TV and all . . . will be for naught.

“Personality Rules Principle” indeed.