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Political Stunner: McCain Pulling Out Of Michigan

Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics.
Oct 2nd, 2008 | Comments

This has got to be one of the most stunning political stories of the post-Labor Day presidential campaign season: Republican nominee Sen. John McCain is reportedly pulling out of Michigan:

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

McCain’s campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans had been bullish on Michigan, hopeful that McCain’s past success in the state in the 2000 primary combined with voter dissatisfaction with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and skepticism among blue-collar voters about Barack Obama could make it competitive.

The Politico reports that McCain and Veep candidate Gov. Sarah Palin have been to Michigan now several times:

But recent polls there have shown Obama extending what had been a small lead, with the economic crisis damaging an already sagging GOP brand in a state whose economy is in tatters.

A McCain event planned for next week in Plymouth, Michigan, has been canceled.

It’s always possible the McCain campaign will deny it, but The Politico is turning out to be one of the web’s most reliable sources for original political reporting. This is shocking coming at this late date. This means McCain’s camp has decided to refocus its resources elsewhere. Democrats shouldn’t get too giddy over this however. If anything, Campaign 2008 has been marked by stark and sudden poll reversals.

If Palin puts in a convincing debate performance, or if Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Sen. Joe Biden puts his foot in his mouth with a gaffe or gives Palin a chance to use a most-assuredly-prepared zinger about him patronizing her, the Personality Rules principle of American politics will kick in and the narrative will be about Palin’s success and Biden’s verbal flub or perceived sexist bungle. The result: some of Palin’s negatives will melt away, and Biden could become an anchor to the Obama ticket.

But McCain writing off Michigan isn’t a sign of a campaign on the ascent, or of a confident campaign. Perhaps that explains McCain’s anger management problems.

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Marlowecan

Sort of OT, but I think Joe makes an EXCELLENT point above about debates:

"...the Personality Rules principle of American politics will kick in and the narrative will be about Palin’s success and Biden’s verbal flub or perceived sexist bungle. The result: some of Palin’s negatives will melt away, and Biden could become an anchor to the Obama ticket."

I have been thinking about these events as fundamentally unfair in many ways.
Consider: if some clever, underpaid GOP writer comes up with a good zinger (Recall Reagan's "I will not use my opponent's youth and inexperience" line in his 1984 debate with Mondale), and Palin is lucky enough to use it, then she could seem the victor in the debate.

I am no supporter of Obama, but I consider Biden - for all his gaffes - to be a far stronger VP pick than Palin.

But if Palin gets lucky, she might "win". . . and all of Biden's years of experience and knowledge (yes, of FDR on TV and all :) . . . will be for naught.

"Personality Rules Principle" indeed.

JWeidner

Yes, the personality rules principle COULD apply, but it may not carry the day. I also remember Bentson's "You're no Jack Kennedy" line used against Dan Quayle. Zingers delivered in Vice Presidential debates don't necessarily deliver the "game-changing" moments that we tend to think they will.

Granted, this is a far different set of circumstances, but I'm starting to think that Palin's reputation is very nearly set in cement at this date. A strong performance on her part may start a turnaround, but I'm doubtful that a zinger or two will do much more than give her one favorable moment in the press among too many unfavorable ones.

DLS

As I wrote earlier -- perfect timing, right before the VP debate. Confidence-inspiring.

Michigan may have just fallen to Obama and maybe McCain will flood Florida with ads.

DLS

If Biden says something really, _really_ dumb, it may be so funny people will love it, as we found Baghdad Bob to be entertaining.

janinedm

Democrats shouldn’t get too giddy over this however. If anything, campaign 2008 has been marked by stark and sudden poll reversals.

I know that this is the common wisdom, but every polling average (538, RCP, Pollster) I've checked has Obama consistently in the lead since May, except for the days immediately following the GOP convention. I'm all for keeping Dems engaged, but if you look at other years, particularly 2000 and 2004, you'll see far more of the candidates actually trading places.

Rudi

Turn out the McCain lights the party is over. If this story is true, the story could be over in Pennsylvani because of similar demographics and situations. The firewalls seem to be Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, seems most of the old Rust Belt has turned on McCain.

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