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John McCain And His Bailout Dilemma
The AP now says McCain has maneuvered himself into a political dead end.‘
But is it a dilemma and is the conventional wisdom getting it wrong again? The reason to balk at quick pronouncements: McCain has gained ground in the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll.
13 Responses to “John McCain And His Bailout Dilemma”
Given McCain's known proclivity to take things personally, and given further the lack of trust for McCain among the rank and file of House Republicans, one wonders how this is going to play out.
“Dilemma” is inaccurate. Was it a “mistake” or a “risk taken resulting in failure”?
http://people-press.org/report/454/mccain-image…
Incidentally, Pew, which earlier reported strong support for the bailout by the public,
http://people-press.org/report/452/public-favor…
reports a change now. (Imagine that. And at least Pew didn't call it a “rescue” plan.)
http://people-press.org/report/455/bailout-plan
“McCain has gained ground in the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll.”
This doesn't surprise me… I think the first reaction of a lot of Americans is that teh Dems control Congress and it was them that didn't pass the bill. I don't think many Americans are concerned that despite this being a GOP bill only 1/3 of the Republicans were for it. Besides, many Americans were against the bill to begin with. Voters may see this as a Dem failure, but aren't too unhappy about it, therefore no big swings one way or the other. Let's face it a one point swing is negligible and within the margin of error. Obama still leads by a big margin.
I think the point that may stick is “the Dems can't get the job done in Congress”.
StockBoy, I would imagine that a lot of people are looking at the failure as a whole. And McCain has to be the one who looks like the horses rear. And although 2/3 of the Repubs voted against it so did 40% of the Dems. An interesting question, “And what about those 95 Democrats?”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09…
Maybe the point you mention sticking is valid–Pelosi only needed 12 votes but couldn't get them from her own party. And if Rep. Hank Johnson's words in that article get around, I think the Dems might be a bit worried about appearing “out of touch”.
StockBoy, I would imagine that a lot of people are looking at the failure as a whole. And McCain has to be the one who looks like the horses rear. And although 2/3 of the Repubs voted against it so did 40% of the Dems. An interesting question, “And what about those 95 Democrats?”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09…
Maybe the point you mention sticking is valid–Pelosi only needed 12 votes but couldn't get them from her own party. And if Rep. Hank Johnson's words in that article get around, I think the Dems might be a bit worried about appearing “out of touch”.
You can't really read much into a one-day change in a tracking poll that is within the margin of error. If the trend continues (and is supported by other tracking polls), then it's time for analysis. But right now it could just be statistical noise.
Just one quick statement:
Daily tracking polls : Actual trends :: Seeing trees : Seeing forest
Another quick statement:
quick pronouncements:tracking polls::bean ball:one pitch high and inside.
As much as I like mlhradio's forest:trees analogy, I think mine is more colorful. lol!
Gallup is only reporting whole numbers (percentages). A change from 50/42 to 49/43 could in fact be a change from 49.50/42.49 to 49.49/42.50 in their raw calculations.
However, they're right to report it the way they do, because the poll isn't accurate to three decimal places. As Elyas says above, a change of this magnitude isn't significant because it's in the noise. (Note, btw, that the inexactitude of the poll means that there's an equivalent chance that the change is GREATER than one point, but obscured by the noise.)
Look at all the trackers in tandem.
Gallup goes from Obama +8 to Obama +6.
R2000 goes from Obama +9 to Obama +10
Rasmussen goes from Obama +5 to Obama +6
Hotline goes from Obama +5 to Obama +6.
Three trackers show Obama gaining a point. Gallup shows Obama losing two. So you cite the one tracker showing any movement toward McCain. Hmm.
Remember last week when a 3-point Obama lead evaporated suddenly and everybody said it was a game changer? But then the lead appeared again the next day.
Pollster does a composite of multiple polls, and the trend lately isn't good for McCain. USA Today/Gallup also had a wild outlier with McCain with a 10 point lead the first week of September.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-…
jchem: “And although 2/3 of the Repubs voted against it so did 40% of the Dems. An interesting question, “And what about those 95 Democrats?”'
It's a GOP bill therefor it's their responsibility to sell it. It was the GOP who blocked their own bill and people claim the Dems should have pushed more of their members to support it? That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. The Dems came through big time considering that most Americans are against it and voting for it was taking a huge political risk (the real reason the GOP didn't support it). I'm surprised that the Dems went out on the political limb to support this GOP bill.
Elyas, I agree that one can't read too much into a small one-day change in a poll. I think if the American public had a clear idea of whom to blame there would be a larger swing in the poll. But I think voters don't really know who to blame, but since they wanted the bill to fail, they aren't too concerned about who to blame.
I agree with jchem about McCain looking like a horse's rear. Though I think that's a little longer in coming, once the voters process the situation.