Comments on: Fox/Rasmussen Poll: Obama Gaining In Key Battleground States

By: DLS

DLS — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:31:54 +0000

Superdestroyer: The Iowa Electronic Markets shows good graphs of its Presidential Election Funds (Vote Share and Winner-Take-All). That's not the only fund open as of now. There also is, for example, a set of Congressional election funds (which also are bets on November's election results, same as with the Presidential funds and the other subject of interest that has open funds currently, the specific Minnesota Senate election that features a well-known liberal big-mouth, who's actually somewhat sane when not discussing politics).

There is no graph for the Congressional funds yet but the prices tell the tale. Here is yesterday's average price for the three funds. Dem gains in each house of Congress are strongly predicted; Dem control of both houses of Congress is strongly predicted.

House

09/30/08 DH.gain08 0.817
09/30/08 DH.hold08 0.121
09/30/08 DH.lose08 0.082

Senate

09/30/08 DS.gain08 0.908
09/30/08 DS.hold08 0.023
09/30/08 DS.lose08 0.078

Congress (overall -- who controls each house of Congress -- the _last_ price of the day, closing price, is listed here because two of the four funds had no average price posted)

09/30/08 DH_DS08 0.935
09/30/08 DH_RS08 0.014
09/30/08 RH_DS08 0.061
09/30/08 RH_RS08 0.035

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:16:17 +0000

"McCain still seems like to want to go down as a poorer candidate than Dole."

I don't know about that, but I do know that currently Obama fans (and Noonan haters) can Savor [tm] the divergence in the following two graphs:

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:12:52 +0000

Since celebrities are allowed to run for office and since Al Franken is gunning for a seat in Washington — maybe McCain should have bribed XXXXXX enticed Rush Limbaugh to be his Vice President. (NO, it would never happen, but still, McCain can use the help!)

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:11:18 +0000

Stockster — I suppose McCain stole that line, “my friends,” from Rush Limbaugh. Even Al Franken's imitation of Rush Limbaugh (“[hufffffffff, puffffffffff], Myyyy Friennnnndsss”) is easier to take than McCain. As others have said for months, McCain is set up to be the next Dole. He's even pulling props out of his pocket now! It's Palin that's keeping him on life support at the moment. I believe if Biden soundly defeats Palin or if Palin has what you might call a Stockdale Moment (or more than one) during the debate, it's likely over.

Super D: McCain actually is better than Dole, not in the sense of being any more appealing (he turns off a lot of people and the surreal quality of the GOP convention, separate from the relief-to-delight about the Palin choice, was because everyone was desperate enough to conveniently neglect (I apologize for the wedgey-split infinitive) how controversial and offputting McCain is to real conservatives, to serious partisans, and to the rest of us with non-liberal and default-GOP-frequent leanings. The GOP began this year with the same desperation they had in 2000 and likely will have again in 2012. Seventy years of conditioning and cultural control by the Dems and liberals have made so many voters hooked on entitlements and style over substance, while at the same time the GOP is not — well, to keep it kind, coherent.

McCain still has a chance to persist through this attrition run of his, but the Energizer Bunny ran out of some juice with this playing-with-postponement that didn't pay off because the bailout bill was rejected. (Though I'm delighted it was rejected, as it so deserved to be. HURRAH)

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:36:38 +0000

DLS: “At least McCain's speech tricks are now limited to interjections of “my friends” rather than speaking of himself in third person.”

On a personal level I cringe everytime McCain says, “my friends”. He is no friend of mine and it comes across purely as a rhetorical device that is not skillfully delivered.

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:23:57 +0000

These polls are out just in time for early voting in eight states that begins today. Including Ohio. Hopefully people will see shifting poll numbers and won't rush to judgement. They would do well to pause and think about each candidate before casting their vote.

I'm not suggesting that these people vote for Obama (though I hope they do!) what I am saying is that these people should understand that we are still finding out more about each candidate and absent a critical need to vote now, these people would do well to let the candidates make their cases before voting.

By: FlaLady

FlaLady — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:22:06 +0000

Here it is, the video youtube keeps shutting down! Cut, paste and enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/TheMouthPeace

By: superdestroyer

superdestroyer — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:21:04 +0000

DLS,

It does not matter what McCain does because he is not going to win. McCain still seems like to want to go down as a poorer candidate than Dole.

However, in looking at realclearpolitics.com, it looks like the most likely number for Democrats in the Seante will be 58 but 60 is within reach.

Image how insignificant the Republicans will be with Senator Obama sitting in the White House and

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:11:55 +0000

Super D: Did you see my note about the first (presidential) debate and how McCain imitated Dole by pulling out (I heard him refer to, at least) his veto pen? (Will he now begin pulling out the veto pen during every subsequence appearance he makes, like Dole with his well-worn copy of the Tenth Amendment Dole often disrespected as routinely as everyone else in Washington?) At least McCain's speech tricks are now limited to interjections of “my friends” rather than speaking of himself in third person.

By: superdestroyer

superdestroyer — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 18:09:20 +0000

The real quesiton is whether the Democrats will get 60 seats in the Senate and make the Republicans irrelevant to politicis. Juding by the incompetence of the McCain campaign, it is looking more possible.