Pre-Debate Democratic Underdogs – JFK, Clinton, and Obama.

I’m not too good at this blogging game. Most of my online colleagues have filed stories on their reaction to the debate and the subsequent poll numbers that have indicated a shifting on independent and swing voters towards Senator Obama. However, I tend to reflect on events and try to provide some historical context to this campaign cycle. In this case, I am reminded of two prior untested Democrat nominees and how their electoral success was enhanced by their performance in their first presidential debates.

Bill Clinton was the relatively unknown Governor of Arkansas before the first debate with George H.W. Bush and H. Ross Perot. Clinton’s performance in the first debate gave him credibility against the favored sitting president. John F. Kennedy’s first debate appearance against Vice President Richard Nixon is a clearer comparison to the 2008 debate. In 1960, Kennedy went from an underdog to a slight favorite because of the first debate. Elected to the United States Senate in 1952, Kennedy had significantly less national exposure than Vice-President Nixon going into the 1960 debates.

Kennedy’s youth (43 years old) was a negative factor to some voters as well as his religious affiliation in being a Roman Catholic. Obama does not face an age issue (he is older than Bill Clinton) but faces negative views based on supposed ties to Islam. The unspoken question that is similar to the primacy of Kennedy’s loyalty (the Vatican or America) is whether Obama has any loyalties to Mecca that would conflict with his oath to defend the Constitution of the United States?

The first debate in 1960 showed that the younger Kennedy had the traits that was necessary for him to serve as President of the United States. Friday night, the debate in Mississippi, legitimized the campaign of Barack Obama by showcasing him on the big stage in a one on one environment versus John McCain. Neither man won or lost the debate in any significant way. John McCain needed to distance himself from his opponent and he did not accomplish the task. The result is that the American people witnessed two men who are capable of serving as President of the United States.

John F. Kennedy and Bill Clinton proved that having charisma, money and legitimacy is effective in winning presidential elections. Now, Barack Obama has all three ingredients…and that is the worst possible outcome from Friday night for Team McCain.