Obama Inches Ahead In Gallup, Rasmussen And Other Polls

In the latest “bounce” in a political season marked by bounces and roller-coaster-like polls, Democratic Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama has regained the lead over Republican Sen. John McCain — a solid 8 point lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll alone.

Most of these polls don’t yet fully measure the impact of Friday’s debate in which partisans of each side proclaimed their candidate the clear winner — while independents gave the nod to Obama. But there is a seeming trend. The Christian Science Monitor writes:

Barack Obama has picked up steam.

Over the past two weeks he’s seen a small but steady rise in the polls. Immediately after the Republican Convention, the Illinois senator trailed his rival John McCain by three points in the various daily tracking polls. Senator Obama is now up by as many as six or seven points.

Pollsters say that’s in part because the vital independent voters are now shifting his way.

“There are still a substantial number of independents that are undecided, principally independent women,” says pollster John Zogby. “But as a group, they’ve begun to swing over to Obama, but not in large enough numbers yet to close the deal.”

And in light of the debate which sparked criticisms of Obama for not being aggressive enough and for not showing passion the question is: can Obama close the deal? Will he prove to the an early 21st century JFK or an early 21st century Adlai Stevenson?

Pundits point to a variety of reasons for the shift in the dynamics of the presidential race. First is the steady stream of bad economic news. Polls consistently show that voters think Democrats are better at handling the economy.

Then there’s the way Senator McCain reacted to the crisis. Initially calling the fundamentals of the economy strong, he then decided the crisis was so bad he needed to suspend his campaign, even calling for a postponement of the first presidential debate on Friday.

His campaign had hoped that would reinforce his stance as a leader that put the country first. But to many people it instead reinforced the notion that McCain could be impulsive and erratic.

The Monitor also notes the Sarah Palin factor. Rather than grow once nominated, the GOP Vice Presidential candidate remains, more often than not, in protective political custody. Or, perhaps more accurately, on a political suicide watch — watched over by McCain staffers.

Governor Palin’s favorability ratings among independents are also going down as her unfavorable ratings are on the rise.

“I’m not sure it’s gotten to the point where she’s hurting [McCain,] but she’s clearly not helping,” says political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.

Here’s a look at some of the polls that now show Obama ahead or on the upswing. None of them indicate that he has closed the sale yet or is close to closing the sale:

—Gallup’s Daily Tracking poll finds Obama 8 points ahead:

Barack Obama leads John McCain, 50% to 42% among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday — just one point shy of his strongest showing of the year.

These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days’ reports. Overall, Obama has gained four percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the “gap” or margin.

The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking data until Tuesday’s report, which will be based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Still, Gallup’s one-day read on the standing of the two candidates on Saturday suggests that Obama held the lead over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he had for the two previous nights.

–Diageo/Hotline poll has Obama down one point since yesterday.

–Rasmusssen has Obama 6 points ahead:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—including the first day of post-debate polling—is unchanged. Barack Obama once again attracts 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This six-point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead yet and marks the first time he has held such a lead for two-days running (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters, McCain by 55%.

The bottom line: in 2008 America remains a highly-polarized nation, two segments that see things in totally different ways and aren’t always open to seeing things in a different perspective.

As the economic crunch continues, just 11% of Americans now say the nation is heading in the right direction. That’s down dramatically from 24% two weeks ago when the failure of Lehman Brothers first brought the Wall Street debacle to the world’s attention. Since then, consumer and investor confidence have plummeted and nearly 80% of the nation’s adults now believe the economy is getting worse. Adding to the frustration is growing opposition to the proposed rescue plan and doubts about the motives of those promoting it.

–Obama ahead 13 points in Michigan.

–Obama ahead in now pivotal state of Colorado.

–Are we in for another see-saw in polls or are trends becoming locked in and time running out for McCain? FiveThirtyEight has a MUST READ IN FULL. Here is part of it:

Here’s the long and short of it for John McCain: Barack Obama has as large a lead in the election as he’s held all year. But there is much less time left on the clock than there was during other Obama periods of strength, such as in February, mid-June or immediately following the Democratic convention. This is a very difficult combination of circumstances for him.

On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.

This lead might not sound like that much, but it’s fairly significant: we’ve been through two conventions and one debate, voters have dug their heels in, and Obama’s position in the Electoral College is extremely robust. Trimming away a 4-5 point lead isn’t that difficult over the summer months — in fact, McCain accomplished exactly that in July and August — but it’s a steeper hill to climb after Labor Day. And if anything, our projection may be lowballing Obama slightly, as the aforementioned national tracking data (which incorporates one day of post-debate interviewing) has Obama’s lead in the range of 5-8 points; the model will need Obama to hold those numbers for another day or two before it catches up to them.

Read it in its entirety.

–Zogby polling found Obama narrowly won the debate in a tight race.

But Zogby also predicts that, despite the election’s closeness so far, it could end in a landslide:

Seasoned political pollster John Zogby labeled the upcoming election “the most important election in our lifetime” and said it could end in a landslide.

Even though GOP candidate Sen. John McCain and his Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama, are polling close, come election day it could end in an electoral route.

“Essentially the election is at equilibrium,” Zogby told the Rochester, N.Y. Democrat And Chronicle newspaper. “This election will stay close until the end.”

He said even though the popular vote will be close, the winner will win the vast majority of electoral votes.

He likened this year’s election to the contest in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter, the paper reported.

“This may be and probably is the most important election in our lifetime,” Zogby said. “I don’t say that lightly.”

Zogby said despite a pair of books by Obama, many Americans still don’t know enough about him. He said that may cause them to go with “the comfortable old shoe” – McCain – come balloting time.

But it’s tight now and McCain’s campaign has already signaled its preparedness for a new wave of campaign ads painting Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal who is not prepared enough to be Commander-in-Chief. Five weeks is a lifetime in politics — and, by Election Day, these numbers are likely to be inoperative. One way or the other…

Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics’ poll average now has Obama ahead 4.8 percent. Some analysts have argued that independent voters in the end will break McCain’s way so Obama would need to be roughly 8 points ahead in key polls to win. However, that assumes the old calculations about independent voters and McCain hold. McCain lost some of them in the last debate — but he has the chance to regain them in future ones.