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	<title>Comments on: McCain Campaign Says Poll Showing Obama With Lead  Is Because Poll Is Flawed</title>
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	<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/</link>
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		<title>By: jwest</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/comment-page-1/#comment-154149</link>
		<dc:creator>jwest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:16:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/john-mccain/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/#comment-154149</guid>
		<description>I see it’s time for a history lesson.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Prior to 2008, if you forced pollsters to bet their entire net worth on the accuracy of one election poll anywhere in the U.S., they would unanimously pick the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Why?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Because New Hampshire is small, it has been first in the nation for years and all the national polling organizations have vast statistical data for decades of previous elections.  They would be confident due to their knowledge, practically knowing each voter by their first names.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;On January 4th, 2008, the USA Today/Gallup poll placed Barack Obama 13 points ahead of Hillary Clinton for the January 8th primary.  To my knowledge, no polling organization had Hillary even close.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Of course, Barack went on to lose by 3 points.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;This is just a simple reminder of what can happen to people who put too much stock in polls.  You need to look past the headlines, understand weighting and apply common sense when you evaluate any poll.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Why would McCain’s campaign dispute the results of current polls?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;They may be looking at his 19 point lead for white males and his 2 point lead for white females.  Some in the campaign may be looking back at historical turnout trends and using different modeling than the pollsters.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;All I’m saying is to not get too worked up over these numbers.  It can only lead to a bigger disappointment in the future.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see it’s time for a history lesson.</p>
<p>Prior to 2008, if you forced pollsters to bet their entire net worth on the accuracy of one election poll anywhere in the U.S., they would unanimously pick the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire.</p>
<p>Why?</p>
<p>Because New Hampshire is small, it has been first in the nation for years and all the national polling organizations have vast statistical data for decades of previous elections.  They would be confident due to their knowledge, practically knowing each voter by their first names.</p>
<p>On January 4th, 2008, the USA Today/Gallup poll placed Barack Obama 13 points ahead of Hillary Clinton for the January 8th primary.  To my knowledge, no polling organization had Hillary even close.</p>
<p>Of course, Barack went on to lose by 3 points.</p>
<p>This is just a simple reminder of what can happen to people who put too much stock in polls.  You need to look past the headlines, understand weighting and apply common sense when you evaluate any poll.</p>
<p>Why would McCain’s campaign dispute the results of current polls?</p>
<p>They may be looking at his 19 point lead for white males and his 2 point lead for white females.  Some in the campaign may be looking back at historical turnout trends and using different modeling than the pollsters.</p>
<p>All I’m saying is to not get too worked up over these numbers.  It can only lead to a bigger disappointment in the future.</p>
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		<title>By: RememberNovember</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/comment-page-1/#comment-154129</link>
		<dc:creator>RememberNovember</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2008 19:52:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/john-mccain/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/#comment-154129</guid>
		<description>This is so reminiscent of an old &#039;40s black and white movie- with Edward G Robinson as McCain and Paul Robeson as Obama.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;( polls against McCain)myaaah see, the polls is fixed...myahhhh&lt;br&gt;(Polls favor McCain) Myaaah,see I told you those polls were true myeeeeah.....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is so reminiscent of an old &#39;40s black and white movie- with Edward G Robinson as McCain and Paul Robeson as Obama.</p>
<p>( polls against McCain)myaaah see, the polls is fixed&#8230;myahhhh<br />(Polls favor McCain) Myaaah,see I told you those polls were true myeeeeah&#8230;..</p>
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		<title>By: Edsel_F</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/comment-page-1/#comment-154123</link>
		<dc:creator>Edsel_F</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2008 19:27:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/john-mccain/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/#comment-154123</guid>
		<description>It would be laughable, if it weren&#039;t so sad, oh wait it is laughable!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It would be laughable, if it weren&#39;t so sad, oh wait it is laughable!</p>
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		<title>By: Silhouette</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/comment-page-1/#comment-154119</link>
		<dc:creator>Silhouette</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2008 19:03:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/john-mccain/22914/mccain-campaign-says-poll-show-obama-with-lead-is-because-poll-is-flawed/#comment-154119</guid>
		<description>lol!&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Watch &#039;em squirm!...lol...this is hilarious!&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Good, now, here&#039;s the plan...&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;1. Pass the Trickle-Up economic plan to boost America up by its bootstraps, literally.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;2. Advertise its specifics widely and as democratically-authored.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;3. Place on Dubya&#039;s desk for signing (this is the fun part *giggle*)&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Scenario A: Bush signs the document that will literally smite all his financial lobbiers (a very unlikely event)&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Scenario B: Bush vetos the Bill making the GOP lose their fannies this November (a very unlikely event)&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Scenario C: Bush postpones signing the Bill and sends it back to Congress for retooling...causing further delay and more strife for the voter.  Obama and all democrats pull way ahead in the polls (&quot;rigged&quot; or not...lol...LOL!...)&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Those are the three options: Bush signs a democratic-authored Bill that smites his gravy-train and helps the people...benefitting democrats in the election.  Or, Bush vetoes the Bill, pissing off voters and benefitting democrats in the election.  Or, Bush delays signing the Bill, worsening the economy...benefitting democrats in the election!&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Checkmate...lol..&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&quot;Flawed polls&quot;.  You gotta feel sorry for them on some level.  Really, this type of hype is all they have left...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>lol!</p>
<p>Watch &#39;em squirm!&#8230;lol&#8230;this is hilarious!</p>
<p>Good, now, here&#39;s the plan&#8230;</p>
<p>1. Pass the Trickle-Up economic plan to boost America up by its bootstraps, literally.</p>
<p>2. Advertise its specifics widely and as democratically-authored.</p>
<p>3. Place on Dubya&#39;s desk for signing (this is the fun part *giggle*)</p>
<p>Scenario A: Bush signs the document that will literally smite all his financial lobbiers (a very unlikely event)</p>
<p>Scenario B: Bush vetos the Bill making the GOP lose their fannies this November (a very unlikely event)</p>
<p>Scenario C: Bush postpones signing the Bill and sends it back to Congress for retooling&#8230;causing further delay and more strife for the voter.  Obama and all democrats pull way ahead in the polls (&#8220;rigged&#8221; or not&#8230;lol&#8230;LOL!&#8230;)</p>
<p>Those are the three options: Bush signs a democratic-authored Bill that smites his gravy-train and helps the people&#8230;benefitting democrats in the election.  Or, Bush vetoes the Bill, pissing off voters and benefitting democrats in the election.  Or, Bush delays signing the Bill, worsening the economy&#8230;benefitting democrats in the election!</p>
<p>Checkmate&#8230;lol..</p>
<p>&#8220;Flawed polls&#8221;.  You gotta feel sorry for them on some level.  Really, this type of hype is all they have left&#8230;</p>
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