Comments on: Is It Time to Ban Polling?

By: Dave_Schuler

Dave_Schuler — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 17:54:18 +0000

I thought it was time eight years ago.

Unfortunately, it can't be done without a constitutional amendment. However, I strongly suspect that a ban on professional political polling would be constitutional although hard to enforce.

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 17:32:51 +0000

I think polls before election day are fine to report... and since this seems to be a close race I think such polls will only encourage more people to turn out for their candidate.

In the 2000 race we saw FL being reported for Gore (which would have given him the WH), but we all know how that turned out. Also Dewey was declared the winner over Truman in 1948. That's still a common joke about declaring the winner before the actual polls close. We've also seen some local races determined by a handful of votes which reinforce the notion that every vote DOES count. If people thought their vote didn't count then they may not be inclined to vote.

So I think most news networks have learned their lesson about reporting winners and if the networks haven't learned their lesson about early predictions I think most Americans know that the winner isn't the winner until most of the votes have been counted, regardless of any winner the news agencies might announce.

I think if everyone believes in advance that a certain candidate will win that may skew the election, but who knows? If everyone thought candidate A is the clear winner then few people may actually vote for candidate A (why do something if it's a foregone conclusion?), but candidate B may win because his/her supporters were energized and turned out.

By: Rudi

Rudi — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 16:26:27 +0000

Jazz, their is a big difference between polls and exit polls. Polls are dynamic, yet trends and averaging negate the noise. There are no trends or averaging with exit polls on ELECTION day. The difference is months versus on day.

By: Jazz

Jazz — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 16:18:33 +0000

Some interesting perspectives on problems with polls, but they don't seem to address the original question. Would heavily unbalanced poll results wind up depressing voter turnout and possibly even skewing the election results? If the answer is no, then why bother having the networks wait until the polls close to predict results? Their projections are no more official than any poll or guess until the results have been certified.

By: GeorgeSorwell

GeorgeSorwell — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:57:10 +0000

The problem isn't polls, the problem is the way they're reported.

There have been fairly significant differences in the polls all year long. Yet each polls gets breathlessly reported like it was the latest Hollywood blockbuster.

When the newest poll gets reported, there should be context about other recent polls that show a few points difference (or similarity, if that were to happen). Some explaination of the differences ought to be included. It wouldn't take that much additional time.

By: Hot Air » Blog Archive » Time to ban polling?

Hot Air » Blog Archive » Time to ban polling? — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:55:45 +0000

[...] Shaw asks the provocative question at The Moderate Voice, wondering who really benefits from the public dissemination of so many competing surveys. On [...]

By: Rudi

Rudi — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:19:53 +0000

Don't blame the polls for most ills. Voter apathy and ignorance shows up in voter turnout numbers. If Iraqis can wave purple fingers while risking violence, Americans can miss American Idol and vote for something more important than Americas Next Top Model.

By: jchem

jchem — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 14:10:13 +0000

You raise an interesting question Jazz. And DLS I would agree that some polls can be abused, but what happens when an honest poll shows the lead to one candidate to be 15% or more?

I don't see it happening anytime soon. But if it did, you would most certainly see more stories on the news about O.J. Simpson or a missing pregnant wife who's husband is a suspect in her disappearance. After all, the media needs something to talk about…

By: Jazz

Jazz — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 14:02:03 +0000

How do you fairly have synchronized voting hours for the people in NYC and Oahu? Somebody is going to be getting out of bed in the middle of the night to vote in that case.

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 13:58:02 +0000

The moratorium that needs to be sought is reporting _exit_ poll data on elections (added to which will be skewing of or invention of pro-Democrat additional results), that is, on the election days. (Uniform nation-wide poll hours would also help. We don't need to hear elections being predicted or conceded before people in western time zones have not yet completed voting.)

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 13:56:29 +0000

No, it is not time to ban polling, just to ban (a) their abuse; and (b) their abuse (including the over-posting of polling results by day or by the hour on this Web site). Also, (c) their abuse.

The Pew polls and reports, for example, have never merited saying “no” to, ever.

By: JSpencer

JSpencer — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 13:30:35 +0000

Yes.