McCain Leads in Rural America (But Not By Enough)

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about how John McCain essentially drove a wedge between rural and urban America with the Sarah Palin pick and the overall tone of the RNC. And although I still think that is one of the biggest strategic benefits she brings to the ticket, a new poll from the Center for Rural Strategies suggests he still has some work to do to win rural voters by the margins he needs.

Not that he isn’t ahead. McCain leads Obama 51%-41% in the survey of 13 swing states. But that isn’t enough to win the election. While Obama isn’t going to actually win rural voters, McCain needs to improve on his current numbers for a few reasons:

• Bush performed better in rural counties. In 2004 Bush won rural counties by nearly twice McCain’s current margin. His dominance in rural America essentially won him the election: “Kerry won nearly 52 percent in urban areas, where 73 percent of the voters lived in 2004. The Democrat failed to crack 40 percent in rural and exurban counties, which had 27 percent of the vote.”

• Bush was ahead by more in September 2004. Although, not by much. At this point in the election Bush was leading Kerry with rural voters by 13%. He expanded that lead significantly by election day, and the McCain camp is looking to do the same. A Republican strategies and “adviser for the poll” (let that serve as a grain of salt when looking at the results) claims McCain is on pace to reach that goal.
• The economy is rural voters’ top concern. Fifty-one percent of rural voters cited the economy as their top concern, followed by energy prices (25%), and Iraq (21%). Conventional wisdom says that’s bad news for McCain, but it’s not as serious of a problem as it seems, as I’ll explain in a moment. Moral values, by the way, was at the bottom of the list.

The bottom line is that McCain will lose the election unless he grows that 10-point lead (he may have to double it). Obama will likely win cities by bigger margins than Kerry or Gore, so McCain has his work cut out for him. But there are some things working in his favor:

• He has momentum. His overall margin hasn’t increased by much—McCain lead Obama by nine points in a similar survey conducted in May. However, his favorability ratings have improved (primarily with Republicans and Independents), and voters’ perceptions of him have improved on every single issue, even “most likely to bring change” and the economy, two categories Obama led in May.

• He has Sarah Palin. While she’s losing her shine elsewhere, she still remains very popular in rural areas. Sixty-five percent of respondents said she represents the values of rural communities, and 54% said she’s ready to be president. Half of voters surveyed said the Palin pick made them more likely to vote for McCain.
• He can win on any issue. As I alluded to earlier, it’s no longer a major problem that the economy is dominating the election. Rural voters now favor McCain 46-45 when it comes to dealing with economic issues. The fundamentals of his rural strategy are strong. If the focus turns to Iraq, taxes, or values, however, his advantage in rural areas grows significantly.

It could swing either way, but the rural-urban divide could very well determine the election. We know where both candidates will win, but the question is how much they will win by in those areas. Obama is already where he needs to be in urban areas, and his focus should be primarily on boosting turnout. McCain has to really run up the numbers, and Sarah Palin has helped with that (so far).

Cross-posted at Ablogistan.

UPDATE: I missed a question that reveals a major hurdle to Obama’s rural strategy: Voter’s were asked if the “people in my community” are ready for a black president. Only half (53%) said yes, while 23% said their community wasn’t ready for a black president, and 29% opted not to answer or said neither option was appropriate. This stat wasn’t included in the press release and initial coverage of the survey, but those numbers are higher than national averages.