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Oh Sarah! The Week That The Music Stopped
I’m not buying into rumors that Sarah Palin is on the way out.
If John McCain can’t admit that he misheard an interviewer regarding Spain and its premier there is no way in Hell that he’s going to acknowledge that picking the vetting-free Alaska governor as a running mate is turning out to be a disaster of enormous magnitude.
To wit: Palin has cancelled fundraisers in California and Washington state and canceled two rallies in Florida and one in Virginia.
Meanwhile, Palin’s favorable/unfavorable ratings have suffered an astounding 21 point drop in just one week, methinks in part because many voters are finally getting an up-close-and-personal look at her, even as she hides in her Cone of Silence, while the drip-drip-drip of revelations from Alaska continues unabated.
Palin is a huge liability: Grossly inexperienced and particularly unsuited for this moment in American history.
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19 Responses to “Oh Sarah! The Week That The Music Stopped”
Gee, it seems like only yesterday her supporters were dancing in glee and imagining the left to be running for the exits. One way or the other, reality trumps BS. Unfortunately in some cases the reality check comes late and creates fallout for everyone, i.e. our current economic woes, which boil down to free market greed being bailed out by the safety net of socialism. But back to Palin for a moment: Well, nevermind, I guess that's sorting itself out without my help.
One trick pony.
I agree. She's way to great a risk for our current problems.
Shaun/Spence,
As a sensitive conservative, I worry about you two. You both seem terribly depressed when the polls are down, then chipper and happy when Obama looks like he is ahead.
This emotional rollercoaster can’t be good for either of you.
One way to temper the highs and lows of poll watching is to read past the headline and look into the internals. Most times a more careful reading of the information will help you deal with the end results because you will be more prepared to accept them.
Let me walk you through the latest Gallup poll to show you what to look for. You can find the information at this link:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110533/Gallup-Daily-…
This gives you the headline that Obama has a five point lead. But, in order to temper our enthusiasm, we go to the next link (located near the bottom of the page). I have provided it for you so you don’t need to search:
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Key%2bIndicators.aspx
These are the key indicators – a more detailed account of what the pollsters found. As you can see, they are divided into categories. The first is Overall Candidate Support, but we’ve already seen this in the headlines. What we want to do now is dig deeper, so let’s click on the next demographic breakdown – Candidate Support By Age.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108034/Candidate-Sup…
As you can see, Obama leads McCain in the 18 to 29 year olds. However, in all other groups, McCain is ahead. How can this be?
Let’s move along to Candidate Support By Education.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108043/Candidate-Sup…
McCain seems to have a substantial lead among all groups, from high school to college grads. Obama is well ahead in only the post-graduate group. Again, he supposedly leads the overall by 5 points, but if these numbers are accurate, how could that be?
I don’t want to get into a partisan battle about this or that and it would take a great deal of time to explain the intricacies of weighting data, so let’s just say that this if food for thought. What I hope you will take from this is a greater skepticism of the front page pronouncements of polls and an appreciation of the details.
In the coming weeks, headlines will make you cheer and cry. If you take the time to look deeper into the numbers, you will be better prepared for the crushing defeat that is surely coming your way.
The choice of Palin was a cynical attempt by the McCain camp to pander to disappointed Hillaryites and conservatives who were hohum about McCain. If this is the kind of decision that an experienced, older candidate makes with what the country now faces- maybe the value of experience is overrated. It doesn't say much for his judgement and doesn't appear to put the “country first”.
OTOH, if something were to happen to Obama- I have no doubt that Biden would be ready and able to step in.
jwest, amateur psychology doesn't appear to be your forte… but if you're having fun, I guess that counts for something. So… is clairvoyance one of your new powers?
Spence,
Not clairvoyance, just observation and logic.
I can see the Obama car stalled on the tracks and the light that seems far away is rushing toward it. Some are interpreting the light as a sign of a new beginning and are gathering around the vehicle.
“The Light is Hope. The Light is Change” comes the chant from the crowd.
I try to tell them that the light is the 12:45 freight train inbound from Cleveland, but who’s listening?
While some may be looking at Obama as “a new beginning”, most should at the very least be looking at it as the only rational alternative to the proven disaster of GWB – and it's possible continuence under John McCain.
I don't see the evidence that Obama's car is stalled on the tracks. Not in the Gallup poll anyway. It appears to me the trend is still up for Obama. It's possible it will stall at some point, but that doesn't appear to be the case right now.
I realize it's a lot of fun to do the Superior Dance, but I think in this instance you're being gravely premature.
The rumor du jour has Biden quitting, not Palin. You know this.
And while the media keeps grinding at her, calling her a liar with a stunning aversion to evidence to the contrary in hopes it will stick, the fear of her besting Biden in their debate is palpable.
She might, she might not. But either way, this column is more wishful thinking than supportable conclusion.
Jwest,
To quote one of the greatest American literary minds of all time, “There are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
Here endeth the lesson.
VailBeach said: “The rumor du jour has Biden quitting, not Palin. You know this.”
????????????????????? Would (could?) you provide a link to this tasty new bit of information OR are you right here / right now attempting to start a new 'rumor de jour'.
Meanwhile, it appears some in Alaska are getting a little annoyed that the McCain campaign has taken over interactions with the governor's office. Seriously, could you imagine people's reaction if functionaries of a presidential campaign came in and controlled access to, and communication from, the governor's office in your state? Abdication is a pretty good word for it, I think.
Shaun said: “methinks in part because many voters are finally getting an up-close-and-personal look at her, even as she hides in her Cone of Silence, while the drip-drip-drip of revelations from Alaska continues unabated.”
The contradiction in Shaun's comment is obvious. In fact, voters have not gotten an “up close and personal” view of Palin because she has been shielded.
What voters have gotten is a daily, near hysterical, howl:
Palin bought a tanning bed . . . out of her own money . . . have you ever heard the like? <Rage, Rage>
Palin may or may not have fired a state employee for cause. Have you ever heard the like? <Rage, Rage>
Palin was stupid enough to let her email be hacked. And her daughter was stupid enough to have an answering machine pervs could leave obscene messages on. <Laughter. Laughter.>
The very corrupt Rep. Rangel declares Palin to be “disabled”
<Laughter. Laughter. . . what's the matter? You Rethugs can't take a joke?>
Now I don't think Palin is qualifed to be VP at all. However, many of the attacks on Palin and her family (re: her daughter) have been vicious, and beyond the pale.
I would argue it is this negativity that is impacting the numbers. . . in much the same way as Democratic attacks would often temporarily bring down Reagan's numbers.
Then Reagan would come out . . . talk over the heads of the media to the American people . . . and the American public would fall in love with the Gipper all over again, as the media and the Democrats ground and gnashed their teeth.
I suspect this will occur in the VP debate which, unlike the Gibson interview, the network will not be able to edit.
Biden will be Biden . . . and Palin will be shown to not be dripping blood and venom.
Shaun and his counterparts have lowered the bar so low that when Palin is seen not to be the new Elizabeth Bathory, the public will go: “Huh, what was all that about?”
Andrew Sullivan et all created the Palin phenomenon with their vicious attacks that first weekend. The GOP can only hope this will continue to the debate.
Ricorun, the Anchorage Daily News is a McClatchy paper.
Just as McClatchy is fiercely critical of the GOP nationwide, while largely ignoring Democratic foibles, the ADN has been running anti-Palin editorials and coverage almost every day since McCain's pick.
On polls, I tend to agree with RCP that there's been a lot of statistical noise, particularly from Gallup, but, other than a solidification of McCain's base after picking Palin, there haven't been any huge moves. The debates will tell.
I've had little if anything to say about Bristol Palin, but it's a shame how everyone used that poor girl. I'll never forget McCain dragging her and her boyfriend out to that tarmac for his photo op. So cynical. He could have met them anywhere. There was a lot of ugliness from the left that weekend, particularly, but the cynical invocation of that poor girl every time anyone questioned her mother made me sick (Bridge to nowhere? Leave her daughter alone!) While I'm being judgmental, who drags a 5 month old in front of thousands of screaming people? None of that stuff is worth affecting a vote, but it bugs me.
Marlowecan, a little heavy on the mischaracterizations there. The soap opera aspect of Palin is drifting away (thank god) and has done a service to no one. There are issues and policies that provide more than enough grist for debate and decision making without all the petty BS having to get in the way. Also your view of the democrats and “the media” as being sympatico is an old line of bull. The MSM is in it for themselves, they don't care which party is elected. That should be obvious by now.
Only an idiot cites the Gallup Daily tracking poll for anything. It's paid for by people who have an interest in selling newspapers and tv ads. It is to polling what McCain's claim is to being a reformer: nonsense.
Marlowecan, I wouldn't characterize McClatchy in quite that way. But at any rate, do you question the information or just the source? If it's the information, then it might be worth noting that this morning The LA Times ran an article saying essentially the same thing — people in Alaska aren't happy that the governor's office has been taken over by the McCain campaign.