Comments on: McCain Palin: From Bounce to Blurp

By: Sarah Palin ‘Energy Expert’ | Christopher Howell

Sarah Palin ‘Energy Expert’ | Christopher Howell — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 02:11:18 +0000

[...] assertions has been shown to be less than credible, Palin’s unfavorable ratings have steadily gone south. Truly, an unkonwn commodity is more valuable than one we have the opportunity to [...]

By: DLS

DLS — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 00:10:40 +0000

Just wait for a new equilibrium. Don't waste time with childish hyperventilating and agitation. [sigh]

By: pacatrue

pacatrue — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:21:54 +0000

Elrod said: “Strangely enough, John McCain should have picked Mitt Romney. At least he would have been credible talking about the Wall Street crisis…”

Very possibly. It would depend upon how much voters saw Romney as a man who would know how to solve the problem and how much he was seen as the sort of man who got us into it.

By: GeorgeSorwell

GeorgeSorwell — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:06:48 +0000

The divergences of the polls, which has been going on for months now, indicates to me that they're not too trustworthy.

All you can really say at this point is that it's close.

By: jwest

jwest — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:33:43 +0000

Elrod,

All I’m saying about the polls is that you need to consider the source. Some have agendas, others are more worried about their long term reputations.

The Big Ten polls are due out at 4:00pm today. These are usually pretty well done.

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results.html

By: elrod

elrod — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:11:06 +0000

jwest,
Every single polling outfit has shown this move from McCain to Obama over the last week. Some show a greater move than others, mostly because of party ID screens. But however you measure the electorate, Obama has gained over the last week.

Strangely enough, John McCain should have picked Mitt Romney. At least he would have been credible talking about the Wall Street crisis instead of Palin and her whining about McCain's “verbiage.”

By: Jazz

Jazz — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:07:56 +0000

Once again.. we don't actually NEED to read the polls. Just see who is complaining about them on any given day and you'll know who is slipping.

By: jasperjava

jasperjava — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 18:48:36 +0000

I always thought that the Palin thing couldn't last. I couldn't believe how Democrats were panicking like chickens with their heads cut off. Yes, Palin was a fun distraction for a while, but it becomes more and more obvious that she was a desperate political ploy. She had her first town hall meeting and fanned on softball questions. She makes Dan Quayle look like a serious elder statesman.

It comes down to the debates. If Obama performs well and gaffe-free, he's a shoe-in. McCain's performance doesn't matter as much, because people don't expect much.

By: pacatrue

pacatrue — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 18:32:45 +0000

Hah! I got it right. The explanations will be bad polling and media bias. I rock.

By: jwest

jwest — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 18:14:35 +0000

The Gallup daily is going to bounce around a few points in either direction simply due to chance variations. It is a fairly reliable gauge, but until there is supporting polls, it’s too soon to declare a trend.

Quoting, much less believing, a Kos sponsored poll on the favorability of Sarah Palin is a bit much.

Most of the media has jumped on to the “McCain slumping” bandwagon due to the CBS/NYT poll. I don’t know if being gullible is a prerequisite for admission to the 4th Estate (or the democrat party) but it sure seems like it.

The CBS poll was obviously inaccurate. In order to boost their candidate, they needed to weight the poll to old party identity numbers. CBS is notorious for this tactic, as they have done it before to the amazement of the more serious people in this field. Of course, the CBS news director refused to answer why she chose this weighting method for this particular poll.

Close your eyes tap your heels together three times and wish Obama rises in the polls.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mark-blumenthal/